Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players whose June performances historically differ dramatically from their stats in May. To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 100 AB in both May and June over the last three years while showing a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months. They also must show either an improvement or decline in both BA and OPS from May to June while registering at least 25 at-bats in both months in each of the last three years.

Today we'll focus on improving hitters, tomorrow will be declining hitters, and then we'll spend the following two days on improving and then declining pitchers.

Royce Clayton, SS, COL: +.151 BA; +.337 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between May and June:
2001: .159/.416; 2002: .092/.096; 2003: .218/.514.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
May	226	23:41	.133/.193/.206
June	218	15:39	.284/.336/.400

04MAY	84	7:17	.321/.380/.583	

Unsurprisingly, joining the Rockies let Clayton compile his best stats since his prime in Texas. The 34-year-old doesn't own superior skills to his recent marks, so he certainly won't sustain a .300 BA and good power numbers indefinitely, especially with Colorado likely benching him in favor of a younger option in the second half. However, since Clayton also tends to improve in the second half, he should continue registering strong across-the-board numbers as long as he remains a starter. Look to acquire him now for a short-term boost before attempting to move him in July.

Derrek Lee, 1B, FLO: +.058 BA; +.258 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between May and June:
2001: .030/.176; 2002: .084/.389; 2003: .055/.202.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
May	301	28:76	.246/.315/.432
June	270	46:50	.304/.412/.593

04MAY	71	7:15	.310/.388/.437

Lee generally sleeps through the first two months before his overall performance dramatically improves over the balance of the season. However, his relative success thus far suggests we might see the expected career year from Lee in 2004. A .94 G-F and .79 contact rate appear nicely better than his normal marks, indicating significant power potential. With the wind beginning to blow out, the Cubs also don't play in a significant pitchers' park until September. I expect Lee to carry Chicago's offense for the next couple months, and since his lineup slot also gives him significant RBI opportunities, make a significant effort to acquire him now. Anything less than a .290/25/75 from him over the last four months of the season will surprise me.

Bobby Abreu, OF, PHI: +.073 BA; +.198 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between May and June:
2001: .063/.292; 2002: .084/.225; 2003: .075/.071.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
May	273	54:51	.264/.384/.454
June	288	60:63	.337/.449/.587

04MAY	69	16:16	.348/.461/.710

Like Derrek Lee, Abreu normally registers reasonably good numbers for a couple months before improving over the rest of the season, especially since he historically builds on a strong June into a significantly better second half performance. Of course, thanks to the benefits of playing in the National League's newest apparent hitters' park, he appears on his way to a possible career year. While his .78 contact rate on the year suggests his BA will remain near .300, a 7/7 SB% and promising 1.37 G-F indicates Abreu again possesses the 30/30 potential he demonstrated earlier in his career. As he remains a remarkably disciplined hitter in a great lineup slot on a contender, I see no reason why Abreu won't continue contributing impressive totals in five categories indefinitely. Take advantage of any opportunity to acquire him to give your team an offensive anchor in almost any league.

Mike Sweeney, 1B, KC: +.055 BA; +.189 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between May and June:
2001: .079/.353; 2002: .043/.056; 2003: .037/.110.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
May	302	39:35	.334/.405/.573
June	247	35:28	.389/.467/.700

04MAY	73	9:7	.219/.313/.356

While Sweeney usually slumps in the second half, his June performances provide a welcome outbreak of offensive prowess. Even with Kauffman Stadium playing as the league's best pitchers' park, a career-best .77 G-F and a very solid .90 contact rate give him incredible immediate power potential. Sweeney owners should look forward to next month as validation for his high draft spot or salary. Unfortunately, the approaching departure of Carlos Beltran, combined with the Royals' general lineup malaise, easily could gut his value by August. Plan to wait at least five more weeks before moving Sweeney to reap the maximum benefit from his expected hitting explosion, yet also don't automatically refuse available trades if you receive a good offer for him.

Michael Tucker, OF, SF: +.050 BA; +.130 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between May and June:
2001: .055/.216; 2002: .056/.078; 2003: .045/.110.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
May	241	25:46	.232/.300/.394
June	202	27:55	.282/.369/.455

04MAY	56	10:12	.232/.358/.375

Even though Tucker only turns 33 next month, he appears to own little remaining speed or power. Of course, a 1.24 G-F and .77 contact rate indicates no skill degradation at all, but the combination of SBC Park and irregular lineup spots at least partially limits his upside. While Tucker's stats should surge upward in June, I don't expect him either to compile notable quantitative stats or post an overly helpful BA. I see no reason not to target him if desperate for outfield help in deeper leagues, however also recognize that Tucker will be lucky to approach double-digit value given his current role. Right now he looks like no more than a supplementary player even on a decent team.

Due to their respective injuries and the lack of expected return dates for either player, I didn't discuss Garrett Anderson or Trot Nixon today even though they generally excel in June. Wait until you see them playing regularly on a rehab assignment in the upper minors before taking any action involving either player.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While I don't trust Clayton or Tucker to continue starting regularly and Sweeney still suffers from nagging injuries, Abreu and Lee possess great skills and significant immediate upside. Adding either player to your team now before they begin truly excelling this season will give you a very helpful offensive boost.