Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since the second half of last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 20th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.

1
2ABCXYZ - Curt Schilling(45434)
AX - Bronson Arroyo(24555)
Cx - Rodrigo Lopez(0)
X - Freddy Garcia(33532)

x - Kevin Gregg(3513543433)

Lopez joins the starters, Gregg replaces him as the safest AL reliever to own, and Wakefield follows his falling strikeout rate down the list.

2
3ABCYZ - Pedro Martinez(40445)
3ABXYZ - Mark Mulder(34335)
3BCXYZ - Roy Halladay(43235)
3bcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim(400)
ABCXYZ - Tim Hudson(33443)
BCXY - Kevin Brown(34313)
BY - Esteban Loaiza(11342)
CY - Sidney Ponson(30344)
Xc - Scott Schoeneweis(33434)
B - Mike Mussina(42435)
bcz - Jeremy Affeldt(23320)

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(4553333344)
3bcxyz - Alan Embree(4253533332)
3acz - Arthur Rhodes(3432222545)
Baxz - Scot Shields(4515142535)
a - Travis Harper(1414445424)

3
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(4354555444)
abcxyz - Francisco Cordero(3544255355)
acxyz - Buddy Groom(4353404404)
acxz - Ricardo Rincon(4543453453)
bcxy - Damaso Marte(3323333314)
bcyz - Chad Bradford(3530354545)

After a somewhat slow start, Bradford appears as a good a bet as almost any AL reliever.

A
BCX - Javier Vazquez(43235)
BYz - Johan Santana(44043)
C - Victor Zambrano(44200)
X - Justin Miller(35534)
Rich Harden(34442)
Jeremy Bonderman(34234)
Mike Maroth(44042)
Nate Robertson(40042)

Miller looks like one of the best sleeper starters in the league right now, and anyone with Zambrano should try to swap the Devil Ray for the Blue Jay; Zambrano's pitching terribly. While rostering any of the three Tigers is a risk, each seems like a decent gamble.

B
X - Cliff Lee(33433)
Y - Joel Pineiro(34243)
Eric DuBose(42030)
Jose Contreras(10040)

C
XYZ - Tim Wakefield(43343)
Z - Mark Buehrle(25143)
Z - Derek Lowe(32330)
Miguel Batista(34544)
Bartolo Colon(04432)

b - Mickey Callaway(5)

Lowe worries me, but Wakefield and Batista seem prepared to continue excelling indefinitely.

X
Ryan Drese(23334)

Y
acz - Jose Jimenez(2444423253)

Z
Orlando Hernandez.

a
bcxyz - Mike Timlin(5454354243)
bcxyz - Eddie Guardado(3444344443)
bcxyz - Tom Gordon(3444314543)
bcxz - Ugueth Urbina(3445424453)
bcyz - Paul Quantrill(4444423322)
bcyz - Jason Grimsley(5244424244)

Quantrill's heavy workload and recent struggles concern me, but I still expect him to remain effective.

bcx - Jim Mecir(4014445445)
bxy - Danys Baez(4244554434)
bxy - Danny Patterson(3434520435)
cxz - Billy Koch(3455543445)
bx - B.J. Ryan(3443144343)
by - Curtis Leskanic(4054521553)
cz - Cliff Politte(2044323234)
cz - J.C. Romero(2332235535)
xy - Francisco Rodriguez(4524553354)
xz - Jorge Julio(5354525443)

Mecir's continued dominance makes him an excellent choice to fill a staff in almost any league.

x - Aaron Fultz(5434334545)
x - Carlos Almanzar(3443344444)
x - Jamie Walker(3544343343)
x - Joe Nathan(4542445543)
x - J.J. Putz(5444524433)
x - John Halama(3244245433)
x - Rafael Betancourt(4254535415)
Esteban Yan(4321255444)
Neal Cotts(2343442424)
Mike Nakamura(5504543422)
Juan Rincon(3232424430)
Kerry Ligtenberg(4422553044)
Terry Mulholland(4255442241)

Putz, Fultz, Halama, Yan, Nakamura, and Mulholland all moved up here this week, however only the first four appear viable options give the recent struggles of Nakamura and Mulholland.

Betancourt, Julio, and Nathan all remain solid options at closer. Hasegawa and Ligtenbert merit some consideration in standard leagues, and Cotts qualifies as a decent gamble since he should see a spot or start or two sometime in the near future.

b
c - Kelvim Escobar(33302)
y - Jake Westbrook(4433)
Dennys Reyes(403)

cxyz - Scott Williamson(3353354223)
cy - Brian Shouse(54)
cy - Brendan Donnelly
cz - Troy Percival(3552253034)
c - Jeff Nelson(4405443023)
c - Scott Sauerbeck
y - David Riske(3242414433)
y - Rafael Soriano(424332)
y - Mike MacDougal(50522)
y - Derrick Turnbow
John Parrish(3534214242)
Mark Malaska(2304213332)
Jack Cressend(4243121113)
Chris Mears
Kirk Saarloos
Bobby Seay

While nobody left or joined this ranking, only Percival and possibly Shouse appear ready to contribute positively to most roto teams.

c
z - Mark Hendrickson(04532)
z - Brian Anderson(21023)
Carlos Silva(33420)

yz - Terry Adams(2353322532)
x - Ron Villone(1133433423)
z - Scott Stewart(4334253345)
z - Ben Weber(4253244323)
z - Rick White(3242323433)
z - Chris Hammond(2234333124)
z - Omar Daal
z - Jayson Durocher
z - Steve Karsay
z - Jason Middlebrook
z - Britt Reames
z - Al Reyes
z - Carl Sadler
z - Bob Wickman
Kelly Wunsch(5)
Julio Mateo(0134335353)
Mike Myers(0434240252)
Justin Speier(4332142342)
Kane Davis
Hansel Izquierdo
Jose Santiago
Mike Thurman

I also observed no changes here, although only Stewart, Wunsch, and perhaps Mateo merit active lineup spots in most leagues.

x
Jason Frasor(3335534333)
Erasmo Ramirez(1534334443)
Scott Sullivan(1344424433)
Nate Field(4335234334)
Trever Miller(0532343335)
Valerio de los Santos(03330543)43
Chad Gaudin(3233331435)

Fultz moves up and Miller replaces Takatsu as this ranking stays relatively stable.

y
Rick Helling

z
Mike DeJean(4313235453)
Mike Jackson(3323422233)
Jaime Cerda(343342133)

AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Erik Bedard(03423), Joaquin Benoit(5443), Jon Garland(34235), John Lackey(35423), Job Lieber(4354), Darrell May(05430), Jamie Moyer(32323), Brad Radke(33333), Mark Redman(23232), Kenny Rogers(14432), C.C. Sabathia(43324), Jarrod Washburn(23244), and Barry Zito(02233).

Other decent relievers include Jon Adkins, Justin Duchscherer, Justin Huisman, and Matt J. Miller.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings

We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Today I hoped to recommend you spend tomorrow watching baseball. Unfortunately, while FOX's Game of the Week premiere features St. Louis at Chicago, the telecast preempts Zach Greinke's debut at 3:05PM(CDT). We also can't see the San Diego at Philadelphia match-up at 6 featuring Justin Germano and Josh Hancock.

Of course, even if we can't watch Greinke in Oakland, we still expect him to excel. The 20-year-old right-hander owns a 1-1 record on a 23:6 K:BB in 28.2 IP over 6 GS with 25 H, 2 HR, and a 2.51 ERA for AAA Omaha(PCL). Kansas City also plans to pitch him every sixth day to limit his innings. We agree that promoting him now is a slightly risky move, but the Royals need to make this last attempt to keep competitive before shopping Carlos Beltran. Obviously make every attempt to acquire Greinke now while recognizing that even approaching double-digit value will rank as a tremendous accomplishment for the youngster. His long-term value far outweighs his potential contribution in 2004.