Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Robby Hammock, C
16/67 for .239/.307/.343 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 9 R, 2/3 SB%,
and a 7:10 BB:K.

February arthroscopic knee surgery kept him out of action until the last week of April. While he produced a .321/.333/.429 line in 28 April at-bats, Hammock's overall numbers look quite poor thanks to an extended slump this month. Fortunately, a 3.53 #P/PA, .10 walk rate, and a .85 contact rate all suggest an approaching breakout. A 1.09 G-F also looks like an excellent mark compared to his 1.66 G-F last year, indicating increased power potential. I see significant upside in the combination of his skills and home ballpark, making Hammock an excellent player to acquire in nearly any league.

Atlanta: Adam LaRoche, 1B
24/99 for .242/.272/.394 with 2 HR, 12 RBI, 14 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:22 BB:K.

An increasingly unproductive lineup will force the Braves to make changes soon. Considering LaRoche only spent a half-season at AAA Richmond last year, sending him down for another few months of seasoning seems like a good idea, especially with several options available to replace him via trade. Only a respectable 3.93 #P/PA suggests he belongs in the majors, but a .04 walk rate, .78 contact rate, and 1.73 G-F aren't acceptable numbers for a starter at almost any position, forget about a first baseman on a team expected to contend every year. LaRoche still looks like Atlanta's long-term first baseman, making him a decent option as a keeper, but at least try to deal him in any single-season league.

Chicago Cubs: Tom Goodwin, OF
6/31 for .194/.188/.258 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:5 BB:K.

The 35-year-old Goodwin's struggles appear quite painful to owners rightfully expecting at least a dozen cheap steals with no downside in other categories. Instead Goodwin looks washed-up, and even a promising 4.06 #P/PA doesn't negate his 1.10 G-F, a likely culprit for some of his BA difficulties given Goodwin owns a career 2.05 G-F; extra flyballs translate into outs for the powerless Goodwin. He averages one trip to first base a week and hasn't appeared as a pinch-runner this year. I wish I saw some indication that he could regain his helpful fantasy form of the past few years, but right now the Cubs appear more likely to release him in favor of keeping Damian Jackson and a 12th pitcher in the majors once Chicago's overall team health improves. Try to deal Goodwin before his value completely vanishes.

Cincinnati: D'Angelo Jimenez, 2B
29/139 for .209/.327/.324 with 3 HR, 14 RBI, 20 R, 2/4 SB%,
and a 24:27 BB:K.

If Jimenez follows his pattern of the past two seasons, his struggles will convince Cincy to deal him to a team like Kansas City or Seattle, where he'll rediscover his leadoff skills and post a .370 OBP for the rest of the year. Of course, he also owns the skills to begin improving at any time. Career-best marks of a 4.60 #P/PA and 1.02 G-F demonstrate a solid approach at the plate, and his .17 walk rate at least gives him a little value to the Reds. Since his .81 contact rate only appears slightly below his previous marks, expect his averages to head upward soon, making now a good time to acquire Jimenez as long as you don't lose players dealt to the other league.

Colorado: Denny Hocking, OF/IF
12/56 for .214/.267/.232 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:11 BB:K.

While Hocking contributed positively to the Twins for a few years around the turn of the millennium, his failure to produce respectable numbers after a few weeks in Colorado, combined with his significant skill declines, renders him useless to fantasy owners. A 3.00 G-F eliminates his already limited power potential, and a 3.64 #P/PA indicates lapsing plate patience. With no sign of his averages improving, deal or cut Hocking before Colorado similarly replaces him with a more productive player from their relatively deep AAA roster.

Florida: Ramon Castro, C
11/75 for .147/.210/.280 with 3 HR, 5 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:25 BB:K.

Castro owners who watch their team BA sink lower daily probably wish he hadn't postponed his trial until October. A .67 contact rate gives him little chance even to post a league-average BA, and his contact struggles similarly truncate the otherwise intriguing power potential suggested by a .54 G-F. Make every attempt to deal him to a power-desperate team for a catcher who won't finish the year with negative fantasy value.

Houston: Jason Lane, OF
6/25 for .240/.406/.320 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 7:4 BB:K.

In 25 at-bats spread over 23 games, this extremely impressive level of production further solidifies his future fantasy prospects. The combination of a 4.16 #P/PA, 1.00 G-F, .28 walk rate, and .74 contact rate depicts a player capable of excelling in the big leagues. Right now Lane's situation echoes Brian Giles' plight in Cleveland several years ago when he merited a full-time job but couldn't find at-bats in a veteran-filled lineup. With Richard Hidalgo almost assuredly leaving Houston after the season, expect Lane to explode towards $20 next year. Don't rush to make any move involving him in single-season leagues, however certainly target him anywhere you seek excellent keepers.

Los Angeles: Shawn Green, OF
30/130 for .231/.342/.454 with 7 HR, 18 RBI, 24 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 20:23 BB:K.

My central concern here is that Green's career-worst 1.90 G-F indicates an altered hitting style which will limit his power output. Both his 3.88 #P/PA and .15 walk rate demonstrate good plate patience, and a .82 contact rate suggests he should finish the season with a BA near his .283 career norm. Fortunately, a 50-point BA jump places his OPS nicely in line with his pre-2003 production as a Dodger. While we can't expect he'll manage more than 30 homers and around 100 RBI this year, try to acquire Green to receive at least a .300/20/80 in 455 at-bats over the balance of the season.

Milwaukee: Craig Counsell, SS/IF
26/109 for .239/.349/.321 with 1 HR, 8 RBI, 19 R, 4/5 SB%,
and a 19:21 BB:K.

Returning home to Wisconsin hasn't helped Counsell significantly improve his performance. Since the 33-year-old never owned particularly noticeable tools, lacking the ability to hammer pitches or tighten the screws on pitchers with intimidating baserunning, only a good batting average and decent walk rate gave him much value to big league teams. ANow, with a career-worst .81 contact rate, I see no indication of the pending BA upswing that could redeem his fantasy value. Since he should continue starting for the Brewers thanks to a, acceptable, walk-fueled OBP, not to mention the season-ending injury of J.J. Hardy, deal or cut Counsell in standard leagues unless you can afford the significant BA drag to add his meager quantitative stats.

Montreal: Orlando Cabrera, SS
36/148 for .243/.280/.351 with 3 HR, 10 RBI, 14 R, 7/9 SB%,
and a 7:10 BB:K.

Cabrera soon should join Livan Hernandez and double play partner Jose Vidro in signing long-term extensions with the franchise, a move that hopefully will provide him the stability apparently necessary to maintain a high level of production. Of course, only his batting average particularly worries me as a 1.22 G-F and a 3.65 #P/PA both appear in line with his previous marks; an impressive.93 contact rate similarly should send his BA upward soon. He even could reach 30 steals for the first time this season, making him a fundamentally sound, five-category player. Take advantage of any opportunity to acquire Cabrera.

New York Mets: Ty Wigginton, 3B
17/80 for .213/.244/.350 with 3 HR, 15 RBI, 10 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:14 BB:K.

Perhaps the most relevant statistic in analyzing the 26-year-old Wigginton in his .208 EQA; 21-year-old AA third baseman David Wright owns a .280 MjEQA in addition to possessing superb defense and good speed skills. Installing Wright at the Shea hot corner right now likely would lead to a couple extra wins this year. Unfortunately, Wigginton's career-worst 3.19 #P/PA and 1.94 G-F give him negligible value right now even if we ignore Wright's approach. Make every attempt to deal him now, perhaps in a swap for a similarly underachieving third baseman like Wes Helms or even Mark DeRosa, both of whom at least should post respectable while playing regularly. Wigginton could lose his starting job and even his roster spot at any time.

Philadelphia: Marlon Byrd, OF
28/128 for .219/.306/.320 with 2 HR, 11 RBI, 15 R, 2/3 SB%,
and a 12:28 BB:K.

The increasing volume of trade rumors involving centerfielders heading to Philadelphia leave Byrd without much fantasy value right now. His 3.61 #P/PA and 2.50 G-F give me little reason to believe he'll head towards last year's .303/.366/.418 line any time soon. Byrd must maintain a contact rate over .80 to take advantage of his otherwise respectable leadoff skills. If he doesn't improve in the near future, his minimal salary makes him a logical target when the Phillies look to upgrade their lineup. At least shop Byrd in any single-season league since even his improved performance this month doesn't guarantee a permanent job for him in Philadelphia.

Pittsburgh: Chris Stynes, 3B
20/94 for .213/.260/.277 with 0 HR, 8 RBI, 9 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:14 BB:K.

The 31-year-old barely managed decent qualitative stats while playing half his games in Colorado last year. Now the combination of Stynes' failing skills and Jose Castillo's quick development should exile Stynes to the bench by June. A rebuilding team with solid upper-level infield prospects doesn't need someone like Stynes, making him expendable both to the Pirates and fantasy owners. Try to leverage his starting job and potential quantitative contribution into a deal for someone who won't destroy your BA.

San Diego: Jay Payton, OF
30/113 for .265/.357/.398 with 2 HR, 13 RBI, 14 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 16:14 BB:K.

With career-best marks of a .14 walk rate and .88 contact rate, Payton now owns the skills necessary to support the .300+ BA he managed the last two seasons. His currently low average looks like a mirage, especially given his newfound plate discipline. The problem with gunning for Payton is the effect of Petco Park on Padres' production. While Payton still owns his .300+ BA in road games, his .234 mark at home negate his otherwise impressive qualitative contribution. I still believe his increasingly sound approach at the plate will lead to a high BA by season's end, but only target him when trading similarly underachieving players since current evidence suggests he won't post particularly helpful numbers at home.

San Francisco: Neifi Perez, SS/IF
26/128 for .203/.246/.266 with 0 HR, 13 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and an 8:17 BB:K.

Accusing one of the fundamentally worst hitters in recent memory of underachieving seems somewhat ridiculous, but Perez frequently owns the solid contact rate necessary to maintain a moderately acceptable BA. Unfortunately, despite a career-best 3.61 #P/PA, his .87 contact rate leaves him with little hope of rebounding to a .250 average in a pitchers' park like SBC. While I doubt many of you own him anywhere, deal or cut Perez even if you only can replace him with an effectively useless back-up who strikes out the only time he bats each week; at least the reduction in at-bats will limit your batting average downside.

St. Louis: Albert Pujols, 1B/OF
40/144 for .278/.376/.549 with 9 HR, 24 RBI, 33 R, 2/5 SB%,
and a 23:9 BB:K.

The continued decline of Pujols' patience indicated by a career-worst 3.62 #P/PA looks like a possible explanation for his slow start to the season. Yet career-bests of a .16 walk rate and .94 contact rate, combined with an expected 1.25 G-F, suggest an approaching dramatic breakout. Of course, he could continue struggling against right-handers, compiling an unimpressive .242/.338/.475 performance, but I instead expect him soon to head toward the .336/.412/.609 he averaged against right-handed pitchers the last three seasons. Now looks like your last chance to acquire Pujols at a reasonable price this season.

We'll continue tomorrow with American League underachieving pitchers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Try to acquire at least one player from Hammock, Jimenez, Green, Cabrera, Payton, and Pujols. Even adding a single member of this sextet at a cost commensurate with their current performances should net you a nice profit by the end of the season. More importantly, targeting players to improve your BA now doubles the effect of any similar move near the trade deadline.