Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to the first week of our formal LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. Please refer to the key at the end of this article for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 13th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.

1
2AX - Brad Penny(44244)
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(54435)
3ABCXZ - Randy Johnson(44554)
ACXYz - Carlos Zambrano(40344)
ABX - Livan Hernandez(44254)
ACX - Ben Sheets(54543)
AXZ - Oliver Perez(45445)
Wilson Alvarez(55)

The variety of qualifying NL starters impresses me, especially since Kerry Wood, Joe Kennedy, Josh Beckett, and Odalis Perez all also nearly joined this octet. Brad Penny's place on top of this list should not surprise me, however I doubt many fantasy baseball participants realize he appears as the most consistently skilled NL starter over the last two seasons. Everyone here merits your attention in trade talks, however Randy, Oliver Perez, and Wilson Alvarez might be your best bets due to Randy's age and the low profile of the latter two pitchers.

While no relievers qualified through Thursday, Dan Miceli, Ryan Madson, Brian Meadows, and Scott Linebrink all appear positioned to earn this ranking by next week.

2
3ACXZ - Kevin Millwood(54343)
BCYZ - Mark Prior

We expect Prior to move up quickly once he returns in June, and Millwood similarly still owns good all-around skills. Both pitchers should contribute significantly to winning fantasy teams, particularly in the second half.

3abcxyz - John Smoltz(5355554444)
3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(5434554445)
3abcxyz - LaTroy Hawkins(32133442330
3byz - Joe Borowski(32345332220
abcxyz - Mike Koplove(5534454345)
abcxyz - Eric Gagne(12433554550
abxyz - Rheal Cormier(2445444430)
abx - Guillermo Mota(3444343434)
bcz - Tim Spooneybarger
by - Javier Lopez(3043025323)

The presence of both the Cubs' closers at this level intrigues me, however everyone on this list aside from Javier Lopez should be owned in nearly every league. Based upon his skill set alone, Koplove belongs here, and I would not be shocked to see him usurp Jose Valverde, who I also like a lot, as Arizona's closer sometime this year.

3
ACZ - Matt Morris(42424)
BCZ - Odalis Perez(52424)
C - Woody Williams(13214)

Morris and Perez look fairly solid, however Williams continues to fade, making him a very risky player to own.

abcxyz - Jason Isringhausen(4543334545)
by - Jay Witasick(2233343435)
cz - Steve Reed(4204433343)
cz - Robb Nen

Unsurprisingly, Izzy continues to pitch well when healthy. Witasick will help teams in most NL leagues, but neither Reed nor Nen merit ownership almost anywhere due to the former's increasing struggles and the latter's seemingly permanent health issues.

A
BCXY - Roger Clemens(52444)
BCXZ - Matt Clement(45434)
BCX - Wade Miller(44443)
BXY - Brandon Webb(44433)
CX - Jake Peavy(44434)

All five of these pitchers rank among the best starters to own in the majors right now. Peavy may possess the most upside, although I would like Webb better in almost any other home park. Even with mild control problems, Clemens remains among baseball's best.

Xc - Zach Day(53245)
X - Joe Kennedy(54354)
X - Chris Carpenter(34534)
X - Jerome Williams(44450)
X - Cory Lidle(42553)
Doug Davis(54354)
Kerry Wood(25550)
Brett Myers(04045)

Each member of this octet essentially looks like a sleeper right now, although Wood only merits that designation due to his current injury scare. Kennedy, Day, and Davis appear the riskier starters, but as long as you bench all these pitchers in Colorado, they should contribute positively in almost any league.

B
CY - Jason Schmidt(03542)
C - Andy Pettitte(2344)
Y - Josh Beckett(22353)
Todd Van Poppel(0)

Each of these pitchers qualifies as risky for different reasons, but all four look like good bets right now. Schmidt and Beckett in particular should pitch extremely well over the next few weeks.

Yax - Darren Dreifort(4334555503)
Y - Juan Cruz(32341353)
y - Adam Bernero
Jeff Fassero(5333533333)
Amaury Telemaco(3223434443)
Jim Brower(3443244455)
Andrew Good(0242)
Michael Tejera
All of these pitchers likely at least would pitch decently if allowed to start, however they appear much safer bets in relief. Dreifort, Fassero, Telemaco, and Brower all merit roster spots in most standard NL leagues thanks to their consistently solid performances this season.

C
XZ - Greg Maddux(35345)
X - Adam Eaton(43330)
Y - Kip Wells(53530)
Z - Jeff Weaver(24435)
Z - Brian Lawrence(20354)
Z - John Patterson(4044)
Z - A.J. Burnett
David Wells(14453)
Al Leiter(33340)
Casey Fossum

Somewhat surprisingly, each of these starters appears an excellent pitcher to own in most leagues. While I do not see any of them thriving right now, all of them seem at least somewhat undervalued due to early underachieving. Anyone looking to acquire a solid starter to boost wins and contribute qualitatively should target pitchers from this ranking.

X
Z - Vicente Padilla(43253)
z - Carl Pavano(23333)
Tom Glavine(33533)
Jason Marquis(34343)

Certainly hold onto these pitchers if you need wins or innings, however this foursome appears mildly overrated, especially when compared to the previous group of starters.

Y
Z - Randy Wolf(34432)
Dustin Hermanson(4301)
Tony Armas, Jr.

While Wolf is not dominating, he continues to pitch respectably. Unfortunately, with Hermanson hurting and Armas apparently out indefinitely, I see little reason to own either pitcher.

a
bcxyz - Octavio Dotel(4452254554)
bcxy - Braden Loopez(3554444444)
bcxz - Luis Vizcaino(3243432554)
bxyz - Danny Kolb(2454444444)

Dotel should continue improving, while Looper and Kolb rank among the safest pitchers in the game to own right now. Although Kolb obviously is not at risk of losing his job at any point, adding Vizcaino as a backup is not a bad idea.

bcx - Mike Lincoln(4245453341)
bcy - Matt Herges(5434340324)
bcz - Chris Reitsma(4322454422)
bxy - Jose Valverde(5344445325)
cxy - Brian Fuentes(4152533533)
cxz - Trevor Hoffman(5453443445)
cxz - Todd Jones(3543454534)
cyz - Antonio Alfonseca(2144443454)
bx - Armando Benitez(5553514543)
bx - Kevin Gryboski(2443243353)
bx - Brad Lidge(0442545353)
by - Julian Tavarez(4455353504)
cx - John Riedling(4333445535)
cx - Danny Graves(5342335324)
xy - Brian Meadows(4454455440)
xy - John Franco(4442514545)

The five closers remain your best bets here, however Meadows ranks with any middle reliever in the game right now. Jones, Alfonseca, and Riedling also appear very good gambles in almost any league.

c - Brian Boehringer(4425542243)
x - Scott Linebrink(5343444554)
x - Akinori Otsuka(5434555354)
x - Felix Rodriguez(0443444545)
x - Ryan Madson(4534344343)
x - Mike Gallo(2433553344)
x - Mike Johnston(3334525434)
x - Brian Reith(5332542534)
x - Dan Miceli(4453340425)
x - Orber Moreno(0543352444)
y - Rocky Biddle(4542511240)
y - Oscar Villarreal(1544430332)
Jeremy Fikac(4425422335)
Scott Eyre(2443540243)
Ryan Wagner(4044132245)
Phil Norton(0223445154)
Tim Harikkala(5445432312)
Mike Wuertz(5453210451)

All of the ax relievers obviously remain safe picks, but Linebrink, Otsuka, FRod, and Madson appear particularly useful right now. Ryan Wagner's general improvement makes him an acceptable risk if you see him available.

b
cxyz - Tim Worrell(2353334434)
cxz - Ray King(3343324433)
cz - Roberto Hernandez(5433324414)
cz - Joey Eischen
cz - Mike Remlinger
cz - Paul Shuey
xy - Luis Ayala(5323334343)
yz - Matt Mantei(4024421333)
c - Scott Strickland
y - Tom Martin(3544355405)
y - Kyle Farnsworth(3433025434)
y - Rod Beck
Dave Burba(2333354323)
Cal Eldred(2340321443)
Will Cunnane(341043333)
Jason Simontacchi(2122)
Troy Brohawn
Scott Service

With injuries and ineffectiveness curtailing the numbers of most of these pitchers, only Worrell, Ayala, Farnsworth, and possibly Burba appear sufficiently safe to own.

c
Sun-Woo Kim(430)

yz - Ricky Stone(5154132)
x - Steve Kline(344333443)
z - Ricky Bottalico(334)
z - Armando Almanza(4)
z - Eddie Oropesa(4013040332)
z - Brian Bowles
z -Dave Coggin
z - Gary Glover
z - Joey Hamilton
z - Chad Paronto
Toby Borland(3)
Randy Choate(4025342035)
Juan Acevedo
Travis Driskill
Blaine Neal

Unfortunately, other than Kim, Kline, and perhaps Bottalico, I again find no reason to own almost anyone here.

x
y - Brooks Kieschnick(323434433)
Shawn Chacon(3344334433)
Duaner Sanchez(3234344333)
Tommy Phelps(3433433524)
Brandon Backe(3434323452)
Chad Fox(4454433330)
Chad Harville(4341432534)

The latter four qualify as obvious risks, but Chacon looks very solid, and Kieschnick and Sanchez similarly merit serious consideration in any NL league.

y
Glendon Rusch(333)
Mike Stanton(4333224314)
Grant Roberts(1232)
John Foster
Scott Randall
Dave Veres

Although Rusch offers some upside, wait to see how he performs as a starter before rostering him.

z
Vladimir Nunez(3343322521)
Brandon Puffer(4)
Dave Elder
Dan Reichert
Brandon Villafuerte
Chad Zerbe

Unless Puffer remains in the majors and pitches solidly, I do not expect any of these pitchers to contribute to successful roto teams this season.

NL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Jose Acevedo(43204), Aaron Harang(24034), Eric Milton(43132), Russ Ortiz(54043), Jeff Suppan(44240), John Thomson(43230), Steve Trachsel(44123), Dontrelle Willis(31024), and Paul Wilson(03323).

Other decent relievers include Francis Beltran, Brian Bruney, Chad Cordero, Antonio Osuna, and Salomon Torres.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a QA score of 0. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a QA score of 0. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings

Tomorrow, as we do every Sunday during the season, we will post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Good trade or even possible free agent targets among NL pitchers include Oliver Perez, Wilson Alvarez, Cory Lidle, Ryan Madson, Brian Meadows, Scott Linebrink, Kevin Gryboski, Orber Moreno, and Akinori Otsuka. Doug Davis, Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, and Mike Johnston also merit long looks in deep NL-only leagues.