Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to the first week of our formal LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. Please refer to the key at the end of this article for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 13th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.

1
2ABCXYZ - Curt Schilling(34543)
ACXYZ - Tim Wakefield(34334)
X - Freddy Garcia(43353)
Bronson Arroyo(2455)

The presence of three Boston starters at our highest ranking somewhat shocks me, especially considering Pedro's absence. However, all three own solid skills and merit significant attention in any league. Garcia similarly should continue producing impressive stats indefinitely.

Cx - Rodrigo Lopez(3443333434)

The best reliever in baseball, Lopez is not dominating opponents but still looks quite safe to own. Both Kevin Gregg and Shawn Camp could join Lopez here by next week.

2
3ABCYZ - Pedro Martinez(44044)
3ABXYZ - Mark Mulder(53433)
3BCXYZ - Roy Halladay(34323)
3bcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim(400)
ABCXYZ - Tim Hudson(44334)
ABCXY - Kevin Brown(43431)
BY - Esteban Loaiza(34113)
CY - Sidney Ponson(33034)
Xc - Scott Schoeneweis(33334)
B - Mike Mussina(22424)
bcz - Jeremy Affeldt(32332)

Of the eleven current starters who excelled last season, only Pedro, Mulder, Hudson, Brown, and Schoeneweis appear perfectly sound right now. I see no reason to reserve anyone here other than the demoted Kim, however I also do not view these pitchers as particularly good trade targets at the moment.

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(4444553333)
3bcxyz - Alan Embree(3442535333)
3acz - Arthur Rhodes(5434322225)
Baxz - Scot Shields(5445151425)
Travis Harper(1414445)

None of these guys owns overly impressive stats, nevertheless I view all five as relatively good bets for the balance of the season, and Rhodes especially seems like a good guy to buy low at the moment.

3
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(4444354555)
abcxyz - Francisco Cordero(5435442553)
acxyz - Buddy Groom(4435340440)
acxz - Ricardo Rincon(2454345345)
bcxy - Damaso Marte(4533233333)
cyz - Chad Bradford(4433530354)

While none of these relievers appears a terrible pitcher to deploy, only Foulke, Rincon, and Bradford seem reasonably safe given their overall skills. Of course, Cordero belongs active everywhere due his role as the Rangers' closer, but neither Groom nor Marte belong in many lineups now due to their generally inconsistent performances over the first quarter of the season.

A
BYz - Johan Santana(34404)
XC - Victor Zambrano(43442)
X - Rich Harden(43444)
X - Mike Maroth(34404)
cz - Mark Hendrickson(20453)
Nate Robertson(44004)
Paul Abbott(44201)

Zambrano, Harden, and Maroth appear fairly safe and merit owning in nearly every league. While Santana possesses more upside, he similarly looks riskier right now. Hendrickson, Robertson, and even Abbott deserve consideration in deeper AL leagues.

B
CX - Javier Vazquez(54323)
X - Cliff Lee(33343)
Y - Joel Pineiro(33424)
Eric DuBose(54203)
Jose Contreras(10040)

Vazquez, Lee, and Pineiro all look good right now. Exercise more caution with DuBose and Contreras given their slumps.

C
Z - Mark Buehrle(02514)
Z - Derek Lowe(04323)
Miguel Batista(23454)
Bartolo Colon(13044)

b - Mickey Callaway(5)

Batista finally appears on track, and Colon and Lowe at least should not hurt you. Unfortunately, Buehrle continues to concern me, so consider swapping him for a safer pitcher if you see the opportunity.

X
bc - Kelvim Escobar(33330)
Ryan Drese(32333)

Any Texas pitcher qualifies as an obvious risk, but Drese's consistent mediocrity makes him usable in deeper leagues. Escobar, despite little apparent upside, still owns respectable skills.

Y
cz - Jose Jimenez(2444423)

He could close at some point this year, however do not keep him on any active roster for now.

Z
Orlando Hernandez.

I expect Ducky to help New York sometime this year, but do not burn a roster spot on him unless you play by traditional Ultra rules or another system that allows extremely deep rosters.

a
bcxyz - Mike Timlin(3545435424)
bcxyz - Paul Quantrill(2553544442)
bcxyz - Eddie Guardado(3533444344)
bcxyz - Tom Gordon(4422344431)
bcxz - Ugueth Urbina(3344542445)
bcyz - Jason Grimsley(0452444242)

Timlin, Quantrill, Guardado, and Gordon currently rank as the safest pitchers to own in AL leagues due to their overall skill consistency and upside. Urbina looks rock solid right now, and even Grimsley should not hurt you in deeper leagues.

bcx - Jim Mecir(4334014445)
bxy - Danys Baez(4342445544)
bxy - Danny Patterson(3434345204)
cxz - Billy Koch(5334555434)
bx - B.J. Ryan(5434431443)
by - Curtis Leskanic(4240545215)
cz - Cliff Politte(5444204432)
cz - J.C. Romero(2422332235)
xy - Francisco Rodriguez(5445245533)

Koch, Baez, and KRod are the best options here, although Mecir, Ryan, and even Patterson can help owners in most leagues.

x - Rafael Betancourt(4342545354)
x - Carlos Almanzar(4413443344)
x - Shigetoshi Hasegawa(3441345530)
x - Jamie Walker(2403544353)
z - Jorge Julio(4535354525)
Joe Nathan(4434542445)
Juan Rincon(4453232424)
Kerry Ligtenberg(2244422553)
Neal Cotts(2343442424)

Betancourt, Julio, and Nathan all remain solid closer options. Hasegawa and Ligtenberg merit some consideration in standard leagues, and Cotts qualifies as a decent gamble since he should see a spot start or two sometime in the near future.

b
y - Jake Westbrook(443)
Dennys Reyes(403)

As I see no reason for Westbrook to cease pitching reasonably effectively, you should feel free to add him anywhere you still see him available. Do not gamble on Reyes unless you are desperate for wins.

cxyz - Scott Williamson(3333533542)
cy - Brian Shouse
cy - Brendan Donnelly
cz - Troy Percival(2223552253)

Williamson and Percival appear fairly strong, and Donnelly should help everywhere when he finally returns. Avoid Shouse until he proves his 2003 success was not a fluke.

c - Jeff Nelson(4405443023)
c - Scott Sauerbeck
y - David Riske(1433242414)
y - Rafael Soriano(424332)
y - Mike MacDougal(50522)
John Parrish(3235342142)
Mark Malaska(2304213332)
Jack Cressend(4243121113)
Chris Mears
Kirk Saarloos
Bobby Seay

Only Riske and Soriano merit any more than the briefest look, however do not bother rostering Riske right now unless you can leave him reserved.

c
z - Brian Anderson(32102)
Carlos Silva(43342)

Silva's slumping but still generally strong. As Anderson has not pitched well in weeks, leave him reserved if possible until he shows some semblance of skill.

yz - Terry Adams(5442353322)
x - Ron Villone(3411334334)
z - Scott Stewart(4344334253)
z - Ben Weber(4342532443)
z - Chris Hammond(4223433312)
z - Rick White(13242323)
z - Omar Daal
z - Jayson Durocher
z - Steve Karsay
z - Jason Middlebrook
z - Britt Reames
z - Al Reyes
z - Carl Sadler
z - Bob Wickman
Julio Mateo(3210134335)
Mike Myers(4304342402)
Justin Speier(4332142342)
Jose Santiago
Kelly Wunsch

Adams remains a good choice as Toronto's nominal closer. Villone, Stewart, and Mateo all appear reasonably safe picks. Avoid everyone else here.

x
Jason Frasor(3333355343)
Shingo Takatsu(4353444323)
Erasmo Ramirez(1534334443)
Scott Sullivan(4331344424)
Aaron Fultz(5225434334)
Nate Field(0443352343)
Valerio de los Santos(4503330543)
Chad Gaudin(3332333314)

Generally choose from this list of pitchers when desperate for short-term pitching staff filler. Only Frasor and Field possess much upside right now, although Gaudin should develop into a very solid pitcher in a few years.

y
Rick Helling

z
Mike Jackson(433234222)
Mike DeJean(5143132354)
Jaime Cerda(3433421)

All three of these pitchers might not hurt you, and I generally suggest adding them before anyone not listed above, however I also do not see much upside in their skill sets.

AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Erik Bedard(00342), Joaquin Benoit(544), Jeremy Bonderman(13423), Shawn Camp, Jason Davis(43341), Ryan Franklin(20234), John Lackey(23542), Jon Lieber(435), Darrell May(02054), Justin Miller(355), Brad Radke(03333), Mark Redman(32323), C.C. Sabathia(24332), and Jarrod Washburn(32324)

Other decent relievers include Jon Adkins, Justin Duchscherer, Kevin Gregg, John Halama, Justin Huisman, Mike Nakamura, and J.J. Putz.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a QA score of 0. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a QA score of 0. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings

We will continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Good trade or even possible free agent targets among AL pitchers include Bronson Arroyo, Rod Lopez, Kevin Gregg, and Shawn Camp. Mark Hendrickson, Carlos Almanzar, Jamie Walker, and Neal Cotts also merit long looks in deep AL-only leagues.