Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Scott Service, 37, RH Reliever
4-0 and 6 Saves on a 17:5 K:BB in 17 IP over 15 G
with 18 H, 1 HR, and a 2.81 ERA for AAA Tucson(PCL).

Service also started last season pitching strongly and maintained respectable skills eve in his first big league duty since 2000. Unfortunately, Arizona remains a poor team to target for low-risk middle relievers, so he even though I expect Service to pitch another few weeks in the majors this year, ignore him since the Diamondbacks' right-handed bullpen depth will prevent him from accumulating any significant fantasy value.

Atlanta: Travis Smith, 31, RH Starter
3-0 on a 30:9 K:BB in 33.2 IP over 6 GS
with 26 H, 2 HR, and a 1.34 ERA for AAA Richmond(IL).

After missing all of last season with shoulder problems, he rebounded very nicely this spring, particularly considering his poor showing as a member of the Cardinals' rotation in 2002. Now the exodus of upper-level pitching prospects from Atlanta leaves Smith as the primary alternative to Juan Cruz in case of injury, and if given the chance, Smith appears likely to succeed in almost any role. Wait until he secures steady playing time before adding him to your team, but if you see the Braves promote him to the majors, definitely monitor his progress since he could emerge as a useful fantasy commodity fairly quickly.

Chicago Cubs: Jimmy Anderson, 28, LH Starter
2-2 on a 23:17 K:BB in 42.2 IP over 7 GS
with 40 H, 1 HR, and a 3.16 ERA for AAA Iowa(PCL).

Signing Anderson seemed like a terrible idea this spring and nothing in this numbers challenges my original assessment. Unfortunately, one more injury to a Cubs' starter likely will bring Anderson to the majors with Sergio Mitre and Glendon Rusch in the rotation and Todd Wellemeyer accustomed to relief work. Despite his respectable control at Iowa, continue to ignore Anderson if he appears on free agent lists since I thoroughly doubt his ability to develop into a solid fantasy option after four straight seasons of posting an ERA no lower than 5.10.

Cincinnati: Mike Matthews, 30, LH Reliever
1-0 and 1 Save on a 12:4 K:BB in 12.2 IP over 11 G
with 8 H, 1 HR, and a 2.13 ERA for AAA Louisville(IL).

Somewhat surprisingly, Matthews suddenly looks like a respectable option for a bullpen with only two consistently effective relievers, Danny Graves and John Riedling. Of course, hopefully Dave Miley will employ Matthews as a lefty specialist since he historically performs significantly worse against right-handed batters, however Phil Norton suffers from similar splits and still faces right-handers. Don't gamble on Matthews now in any but the deepest leagues since I see no reason not to wait until he demonstrates the ability to echo his AAA skills over extended duty in the majors.

Colorado: Aaron Cook, 25, RH Starter
3-1 on a 25:8 K:BB in 46 IP over 7 GS
with 34 H, 1 HR, and a 2.74 ERA for AAA Colorado Springs(PCL).

After ranking among Colorado's top pitching prospects prior to each of the previous seasons, a largely disastrous 2003 performance significantly soured the Rockies on Cook. Hopefully this level effectiveness in the minors will help redeem him in the eyes of management, especially since he certainly warrants a rotation slot more than someone like Scott Elarton. Unfortunately, despite his great control and intriguing upside, I see little reason for fantasy owners in any league to want Cook since pitching in Colorado erases any qualitative value he might earn and the team's new 40-man rotation decreases his chance for wins. Ignore Cook as long as he remains in the Rockies' system.

Florida: Toby Borland, 34, RH Reliever
3-0 and 5 Saves on a 15:6 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 15 G
with 13 H, 0 HR, and a 0.96 ERA for AAA Albuequerque(PCL).

An appendectomy and bone chips in his elbow severely limited Borland last season, however he seemed moderately effective when healthy. His early performance this season in a tough park for pitchers similarly suggests a high possibility for him to succeed with Florida. Wait until he secures steady playing time before adding him to your team, but definitely at least monitor his first few outings since the Marlins' unimpressive relief corps could force Borland into a significant role fairly quickly.

Houston: Carlos Hernandez, 24, LH Starter
3-0 on a 21:13 K:BB in 40 IP over 7 GS
with 36 H, 1 HR, and a 2.03 ERA for AAA New Orleans(PCL).

Hernandez missed all of 2003 due to surgery to repair labrum and rotator cuff tears, however his overall effectiveness makes him the most likely candidate for promotion if Houston needs a AAA starter at any point. While his lack of strikeouts concerns me, Hernandez hasn't held a walk rate this good since A-ball. Hopefully Houston will give him a full year at AAA, and then he can compete for a big league rotation spot next spring once his skills and arm strength fully recover. Of course, you still should target Hernandez if you see him promoted in the next few months since he at least should rack a few wins even if he likely won't post great qualitative stats for another couple years.

Los Angeles: Tanyon Sturtze, 33, RH Starter
3-0 on a 32:12 K:BB in 36 IP over 6 GS
with 26 H, 2 HR, and a 2.50 ERA for AAA Las Vegas(PCL).

The Dodgers released Sturtze near the end of spring training. He signed with Florida almost immediately, pitched poorly in a couple games, and then earned his walking papers from the Marlins despite their need for veteran relief help. Sturtze returned to Los Angeles, and if LA opts to replace another struggling starter, he looks more likely to get the call than prospects Edwin Jackson and Joel Hanrahan. Target Sturtze if the Dodgers promote him since his skills will work well in Los Angeles, however also recognize he certainly could struggle, so don't add him if you then can't cut him at your leisure.

Milwaukee: Matt Wise, 28, RH Reliever
1-0 on a 20:4 K:BB in 20 IP over 1 GS(7G)
with 12 H, 3 HR, and a 1.80 ERA for AAA Indianapolis(IL).

Tommy John surgery cost Wise all of 2003 and then Anaheim cut him at the end of the year. He signed with the Brewers, nearly broke camp in the majors, and now looks likely to emerge as a primary middle reliever after he remained effective in the minors. I used to like Wise a lot due to his outstanding control, however a persistently poor homer rate limited his value, and nothing in his Indianapolis numbers suggests he fixed that problem since leaving the Angels. Wait until you see Wise similarly overcoming an abundance of longballs thanks to his otherwise solid skills before adding him to your team.

Montreal: Scott Downs, 28, LH Starter
4-1 on a 19:8 K:BB in 43 IP over 7 GS
with 47 H, 3 HR, and a 3.35 ERA for AAA Edmonton(PCL).

With Sun-Woo Kim in the rotation and Seung Song injured, Downs looks like the logical candidate to fill any rotation opening for the Expos. Of course, despite great control and good qualitative stats, a low strikeout rate gives him a low fantasy ceiling. He still could help some teams, however wait until he proves his 2004 minor league success isn't a fluke by compiling a couple of successful big league starts before rostering him.

New York Mets: Matt Ginter, 26, RH Starter
0-2 on a 27:4 K:BB in 34.2 IP over 6 GS
with 27 H, 1 HR, and a 1.56 ERA for AAA Norfolk(IL).

Aaron Heilman also merits a long look in the near future, but Ginter's combination of dominance and nearly complete effectiveness makes him the most likely choice when New York next needs a starter. Of course, he hadn't started a game since 2001, when the White Sox converted him to the bullpen as part of their plan to limit the trade value of every pitching prospect in the organization. Despite pitching decently as a reliever for a couple years, Chicago left him in the minors almost all of 2003, however after swiping him for Timo Perez this spring, New York smartly shifted Ginter back to the rotation. He allows few homers despite a mediocre ground-fly ratio, and consistently good control suggests he should succeed in any role. Once he reaches the majors, look to acquire Ginter in any NL league; he possesses a much stronger shot of appearing on the next Mets' playoff team than anyone currently in their rotation with the possible exception of Jae Seo.

Philadelphia: Brian Powell, 30, RH Starter
3-1 on a 25:6 K:BB in 39.1 IP over 6 GS
with 24 H, 2 HR, and a 1.83 ERA for AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).

Both Clay Condrey and Powell own nearly identical stats and skills, however the Phillies probably prefer the latter pitcher given Condrey only joined the organization at the end of spring training. Powell pitched quite well over the last two months of 2003 at Scranton, however a combination of homer problems and historically poor command makes him a very risky pickup. Even if he replaces Billy Wagner for a couple weeks, Powell only should supplant Amaury Telemaco in long relief rather than join Worrell, Madson, Cormier, and Telemaco at the end of the bullpen. Ignore Powell unless he remains effective overall several outings to suggest that this year his minor league success isn't a fluke.

Pittsburgh: Mike Gonzalez, 25, LH Reliever
2-0 and 2 Saves on a 33:6 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 13 G
with 11 H, 0 HR, and a 0.96 ERA for AAA Nashville(PCL).

Yes, the Pirates probably will need a replacement starter for Josh Fogg before they promote Gonzalez, however the lefty still merits an immediate recall given his overall dominance this year. Even with rookie lefty relievers John Grabow and Mike Johnston succeeding in Pittsburgh, Gonzalez looks like a better option than Jason Boyd or Brian Boehringer. His promotion also will give Lloyd McClendon perhaps the most balanced bullpen in the league. Look to acquire Gonzalez as soon as he reaches the majors since his consistently dominant minor league numbers suggest he could develop into a quality closer.

San Diego: Brandon Puffer, 28, RH Reliever
1-0 on a 15:4 K:BB in 23 IP over 15 G
with 22 H, 0 HR, and a 1.57 ERA for AAA Portland(PCL).

Despite his effectiveness thus far in 2004, Puffer still doesn't appear particularly dominant and likely will head back to the minors if Rod Beck returns next week as expected. Even if he stays with the team for a couple of weeks, he won't accumulate any fantasy value since San Diego embarks on a two-week road trip on Tuesday to Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Colorado, and Milwaukee. They then face the Rockies and Brewers at home before beginnings interleague play with a week in Boston and New York. All of San Diego's relievers should take qualitative hits in upcoming weeks, so certainly ignore Puffer since his limited upside makes him quite expendable, particularly if the team needs a long reliever at some point.

San Francisco: Noah Lowry, 23, LH Starter
0-0 on a 1:2 K:BB in 3 IP over 1 G
with 9 H, 1 HR, a 5-4 G-F, and a 12.00 ERA for San Francisco. 2-2 on a 22:9 K:BB in 30.2 IP over 6 GS
with 29 H, 3 HR, and a 4.40 ERA for AAA Fresno(PCL).

Given Kevin Correia's struggles in two big league starts, Lowry looks like the best choice to fill almost any role on San Francisco's staff in case of injury. He should spend the season at Fresno since he possesses the skills to develop into a replacement for Kirk Rueter, however his overall effectiveness already makes him fairly useful in short-term call-ups. While you only should target Lowry in leagues where you can leave him reserved until he secures a steady role, keep him in mind with Correia as sleeper starter prospects who could earn several surprise wins this season.

St. Louis: Dan Haren, 23, RH Starter
5-2 on a 61:14 K:BB in 45.2 IP over 7 GS
with 45 H, 7 HR, and a 3.35 ERA for AAA Memphis(PCL).

Hopefully the Cardinals will plug Tony LaRussa's salary into Edgar Renteria's new contract while a new manager allows Adam Wainwright and Haren to join Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis in the rotation. After a half-season of posting fairly strong all-around skills in the majors, Haren did not deserve his demotion this spring, and his unbelievably dominant performance this season should earn him a ticket back to St. Louis by mid-season. Make every attempt to acquire Haren, perhaps even before the Cardinals promote him, as nothing here indicates he won't develop into an ace, not to mention a productive fantasy contributor in the second half.

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Pedro Martinez: Sun:@TOR(R.Halladay)
Mike Mussina: Fri:SEA(G.Meche)
Roy Halladay: Sun:BOS(P.Martinez)
Tim Hudson: Fri:@KC(J.Gobble)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:NYM(S.Trachsel)
Kevin Brown: Sun:SEA(J.Pineiro)
Josh Beckett: Fri:@STL(J.Marquis)
Shawn Chacon: 3 Home vs. PHI.

No starts: Schilling, Randy, Vazquez, Wood, Contreras.

With Pedro and Halladay both pitching well, we're going to sit both aces in favor of our other six starters.

Sitting Crede and Cintron are easy decisions, and we'd rather Fullmer than the ice cold Teixeira. Lastly, with Ichiro in New York against Flaherty and Pierre in St. Louis against Matheny, we want them benched in favor of Crawford, who spend the weekend in Cleveland.

The Umpire Hunter(16th lg; 437th overall)
Week 6b: May 14-May 16

C	Mike Piazza		990
C	Jason Varitek		680
1B	Brad Fullmer		700
1B	Josh Phelps		580
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1930
2B	Marcus Giles		990
3B	Eric Hinske		990
3B	Hank Blalock		850
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Kazuo Matsui		750
OF	Vernon Wells		1150 
OF	Carl Crawford		1040
OF	Scott Podsednik		980
OF	Richard Hidalgo	970
OF	Adam Dunn		690
OF	Miguel Cabrera		570 
DH	Carlos Beltran		1760
DH	Brad Wilkerson		690 

SP	Mike Mussina		1380 
SP	Tim Hudson		1320
SP	Roy Oswalt		1200 
SP	Kevin Brown		1180
SP	Josh Beckett		990 
SP	Shawn Chacon		630
RP	Eric Gagne		1890
RP	Octavio Dotel		1250
RP	Arthur Rhodes		800
RP	Matt Herges		670

Total Salary for Week 6b: 	29640

Today's Fantasy Rx: With Montreal heading back to Puerto Rico next week, now looks like your last chance to acquire Expos' hitters at a discount since we certainly expect their offense will flourish despite their struggles at their second home at the beginning of the season. Strongly consider dealing for one or two Montreal hitters while looking to move risky pitchers like Claudio Varges, Tomo Ohka, and Rocky Biddle.