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May
12th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2004 Pitching: May AL Roto Prospects
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Matt Hensley, 26, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 0:1 K:BB in 1 IP over 1 G
with 1 H, 0 HR, a 2-0 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA for Anaheim.
1-0 and 1 Save on a 19:4 K:BB in 18.1 IP over 10 G
with 7 H, 1 HR, and a 0.98 ERA for AAA Salt Lake(PCL).

Perhaps Joel Peralta's 22:4 K:BB in 15 IP should earn him a look in the majors, but the pending return of Brendan Donnelly already necessitates the demotion of an established big leaguer like Ben Weber to the minors. Since Anaheim purchased Hensley's contract a couple weeks ago when they needed short-term bullpen filler, I expect he'll receive the next call-up if another reliever hits the DL. Given his outstanding performance this year and two strong seasons in Salt Lake's rotation, Hensley easily could join Scot Shields as a dominant reliever following his conversion from starting. If the Angels appear likely to give him any significant innings, make a significant effort to acquire Hensley in any AL league.


Baltimore: Daniel Cabrera, 22, RH Starter
0-1 on a 35:12 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 5 GS
with 11 H, 1 HR, and a 2.63 ERA for AA Bowie(EL).

With Sean Bergman and Bruce Chen currently anchoring AAA Ottawa's rotation and both Rodrigo Lopez and Rick Bauer central cogs of the surprisingly effective Baltimore bullpen, the Orioles dipped down to AA Bowie for a starter to replace the injured Matt Riley. Given Cabrera's effectiveness this season after a double promotion from the Sally League to the Eastern League this season, I don't completely object to this move. However, the need to employ Cabrera, who's started only 23 games in full-season ball, illustrates a deeper flaw of the Orioles' system. At least they didn't rush John Maine to the majors, and Cabrera's great hit rate and overall dominance suggest some potential to succeed. Of course, selecting him in almost any fantasy league is a bad idea right now. Wait to see how he pitches tonight, and unless his skills appear relatively solid against the White Sox, don't add him to your team.


Boston: Jamie Brown, 27, RH Starter
3-1 on a 27:2 K:BB in 38 IP over 6 GS
with 28 H, 6 HR, and a 2.84 ERA for AAA Pawtucket(IL).

Recalled today to give Boston a long reliever while Bronson Arroyo heads to the rotation, replacing the demoted Byung-Hyun Kim, Brown looks like a good fit with the Red Sox. While occasional homer problems could sabotage Brown's ERA, his outstanding control and respectable dominance depict a pitcher ready to succeed in the majors. Only target him in the deepest AL leagues since I don't expect him to receive significant innings, however Brown also could surprise, emerging as a reliable middleman for Boston if given the opportunity.


Chicago White Sox: Felix Diaz, 24, RH Starter
5-0 on a 32:5 K:BB in 39.1 IP over 6 GS(7G)
with 33 H, 3 HR, and a 1.83 ERA for AA Charlotte(IL).

Diaz's prospect status fell over the past year apparently due to Chicago's ambivalence regarding his future with the organization. Now, after Dan Wright's struggles opened a rotation spot, Diaz's early performance pushed him ahead of Jon Rauch. Barring a disastrous debut tomorrow, Diaz could enjoy a double-start next week in road games in Cleveland and Minnesota. He looks like a definite high-risk, high-upside pick right now, but if you need wins and can risk potentially significant qualitative damage, look to acquire Diaz if he pitches well against Baltimore.


Cleveland: Kyle Denney, 26, RH Starter
4-0 on a 36:6 K:BB in 40 IP over 6 GS
with 30 H, 1 HR, and a 2.03 ERA for AAA Buffalo(IL).

If Chad Durbin falters while replacing Jeff D'Amico in the rotation, Cleveland almost certainly will recall Denney given the struggles of Jeriome Robertson and Jeremy Guthrie. Denney, who quietly compiled a 466:154 K:BB in 489 minor league innings over the last five seasons, owns a stronger skill set than almost any Indians' pitching prospect. Only his age places him behind many of his teammates on most prospect lists, but his strong AA performance last year, combined with his superb start to this season, makes him an intriguing fantasy option. Look to acquire Denney when Cleveland promotes him since the combination of his skills and a relatively soft schedule, excepting a week against Texas and Anaheim, positions Denney nicely for early success.


Detroit: Pat Ahearne, 34, RH Starter
3-1 on a 39:6 K:BB in 49.1 IP over 7 GS
with 40 H, 5 HR, and a 3.10 ERA for AAA Toledo(IL).

While Franklyn German continues to pitch effectively and soon should return to the majors, Ahearne looks like the logical candidate for Detroit's starting rotation if Gary Knotts falters as Nate Cornejo's replacement. The journeyman returned to Toledo for the third straight year this season and looks like a better option for the Tigers than nominal prospects Shane Loux and Andy Van Hekken. Of course, Ahearne's long and largely undistinguished minor league career gives him little hope for a big league renaissance now, but he owns at least moderate upside. Still, wait until Ahearne compiles a couple of decent starts before rostering him on any fantasy team.


Kansas City: Justin Huisman, 25, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 1:0 K:BB in 3 IP over 2 G
with 1 H, 0 HR, a 6-2 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA for Kansas City.
0-2 and 3 Saves on a 5:2 K:BB in 10 IP over 9 G
with 13 H, 2 HR, and a 3.60 ERA for AAA Omaha(PCL).

The Royals only demoted Huisman to create room for Eduardo Villacis to spot start, and yesterday they recalled him to replace Mike MacDougal in their bullpen. Due to the struggles of their mostly ineffective relief corps, Kansas City desperately needs a couple of unexpected sources of solid innings, so Huisman could join Nate Field at the end of the Royals' pen in the relatively near future. Huisman's very impressive minor league numbers give him a good chance of succeeding almost immediately. Anyone needing a saves' boost or even just a solid reliever with intriguing upside should try to acquire Huisman, who at least should post respectable qualitative stats even if he doesn't dominate many batters.


Minnesota: Jesse Crain, 23, RH Reliever
2-2 and 5 Saves on a 22:6 K:BB in 17.2 IP over 15 G
with 19 H, 2 HR, and a 3.06 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).

Despite the foolish decision to demote him this spring, Jesse Crain continues to excel and soon should earn a deserved big league bullpen spot. Jesse Crain looked like the strongest candidate to close for the Twins prior to the year, yet Joe Nathan's success instead allows Jesse Crain to pitch more valuable innings in middle relief. He still should develop into a top closer, but the small likelihood of Jesse Crain accumulating many wins or saves unfortunately reduces his immediate fantasy upside. While I still advise you target him in AL leagues, he no longer appears obviously superior to most middle reliever with respectable skills.


New York Yankees: Colter Bean, 27, RH Reliever
1-1 on a 23:2 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 10 G
with 8 H, 0 HR, and a 0.47 ERA for AAA Columbus(IL).

Bean bombed this spring with Boston as a Rule 5 pick, but returning him certainly looks like a mistake given his nearly unbelievable early success. The inevitable injuries in the Yankees' bullpen should force Bean to the majors around mid-season. While I expect him to succeed if given an extended opportunity, New York likely will acquire at least one veteran reliever, so wait until Bean finds a regular role before making any attempt to add him to your roster.


Oakland: Justin Lehr, 26, RH Reliever
1-1 and 5 Saves on a 21:6 K:BB in 17 IP over 14 G
with 18 H, 0 HR, and a 2.65 ERA for AAA Sacramento(PCL).

Although a 3-1 record, 2.22 ERA and a 34:11 K:BB in 44.2 IP should earn Joe Blanton a call-up sometime this year, the Athletics likely won't promote him unless injury creates a rotation opening and Justin Duchscherer proves too valuable in relief to move into the rotation. Oakland's bullpen struggles instead could let Lehr debut in the near future. Unfortunately, despite fairly strong numbers in the upper minors over the past few years, Lehr owns neither great command nor consistent dominance. Unless the Athletics unexpectedly give him a significant role, ignore Lehr since I don't expect him to compile enough quality innings to contribute to successful fantasy teams.


Seattle: Bobby Madritsch, 28, LH Starter
3-0 on a 41:11 K:BB in 41.2 IP over 7 GS
with 35 H, 2 HR, and a 2.59 ERA for AAA Tacoma(PCL).

With both Ron Villone and Mike Myers pitching respectably, I don't see an obvious open for George Sherrill, who owns a 1.45 ERA on a 29:5 K:BB in 18.2 IP. Travis Blackley also merits consideration for a promotion, but Madritsch owns superior skills essentially across-the-board. Seattle could create a rotation spot for Madritsch either by demoting one of their trio of underachieving young starters or dumping Freddy Garcia for prospects. Given his upper-level success over the last two years, Madritsch should succeed if given an opportunity, particularly since he doesn't depend on an outstanding defense to pitch effectively. Any Mariners' starter merits at least some fantasy consideration due to the benefits of pitching in Safeco, however Madritsch also possesses more immediate upside than perhaps any other Seattle pitching prospect. Certainly try to acquire him when he finally debuts.


Tampa Bay: Rob Bell, 27, RH Starter
5-0 on a 31:6 K:BB in 32.1 IP over 6 GS
with 23 H, 3 HR, and a 1.67 ERA for AAA Durham(IL).

Continued struggles by any of Tampa's starters could force Bell to the majors in the immediate future. While his outstanding performance at Durham suggests he stands a reasonable chance of succeeding in the majors, he normally appears effective in the minors each year at some point, earning another big league shot before a combination of control and homer problems destroy his qualitative stats. I still believe Bell will enjoy a couple of productive seasons, but I see no obvious indication that he'll remain this impressive once recalled. Unless you can bury him on a reserve roster, ignore Bell until he compiles at least a few solid starts to suggest he finally will overcome his established skill deficiency.


Texas: Frank Francisco, 24, RH Reliever
1-3 and 6 Saves on a 30:10 K:BB in 17.2 IP over 15 G
with 7 H, 1 HR, and a 2.55 ERA for AA Frisco(TL).

After acquiring him from the White Sox last summer in the Carl Everett deal, Texas purchased his contract today to replace Doug Brocail in the bullpen following Brocail's appendectomy. An unimpressive skill history suggests Francisco isn't ready for the majors despite his obvious dominance. His high walk particularly makes him a risky target since the Rangers' relatively respectable relief corps should relegate Francisco to mop-up innings. Ignore him this season barring a shockingly strong succession of effective outings.


Toronto: David Bush, 24, RH Starter
3-3 on a 37:10 K:BB in 41 IP over 6 GS
with 44 H, 2 HR, and a 4.61 ERA for AAA Syracuse(IL).

The Jays' disastrous start to the season gives the team no reason to rush Bush, who certainly could benefit from a full year at Syracuse. Only an injury or unexpected trade should force him to the majors any time soon since Toronto gave their top four starters contracts lasting at least through next season, suggesting they'll maintain their current rotation indefinitely, a move that creates organizational stability while keeping Bush and Dustin McGowan from preemptively accumulating service time. Of course, Bush also appears ready for the majors now, and if allowed to develop for another few months, he should succeed almost immediately upon debuting. Exercise some caution if Bush's skills slip or Toronto needs him before the end of the month, however as long as he sees at least ten starts for Syracuse while holding skill ratios approximating his current marks, make every effort to acquire Bush upon his eventual promotion.


We'll continue tomorrow with National League pitching prospects.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Based on their minor league performance, every pitcher listed above merits some consideration in most fantasy leagues upon his eventual promotion to the majors. However, keep in mind that most of them initially only will spend a couple days or weeks at the end of a bullpen. Even if prospects like Cabrera and Diaz succeed in their big league rotation debuts, only roster them immediately if you can afford to absorb the hit to your qualitative stats from their probably struggles in upcoming appearances. Despite the command and dominance displayed by these prospects, only a couple of them likely will contribute more to fantasy teams this season than several underachieving relievers likely available as free agents in almost every league.


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