Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes the following data: H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.

Anaheim: Jose Molina, C
15/43 for .349/.378/.535 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 11 R, 2/3 SB%,
and a 2:10 BB:K.

Jose started for most of the first two weeks of the season due to older brother Ben's health problems, but with only 16 at-bats in the last 15 days, Jose's days as a regular appear over. Considering his normally awful numbers, including a career .229/.268/.300 in 240 at-bats prior to 2003, Molina's performance this year qualifies as perhaps the most unbelievable stat set of the season. His .77 contact rate, 3.50 #P/PA, and 1.36 G-F are right in line with both his 2003 and career marks, indicating no fundamental skill improvement. Yet his .349 BA and 2 steals make him one of the most valuable catchers in roto. Molina likely will keep an above-average BA all year due to his limited playing time, but I see no reason his 2004 line, excluding April, won't wind up relatively near .222/1/6/0 in around 100 at-bats. Only a long-term injury to Ben should give Jose more playing time, and given his mediocre skills, his averages only should drop over the next few months. Attempt to move Jose by including him in a larger deal, using his early success as a selling point to exchange him for an underachieving starting catcher like Benito Santiago or even Victor Martinez in single-season leagues.

Baltimore: David Segui, DH
14/47 for .298/.365/.426 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:11 BB:K.

Knee inflammation forced Segui to the DL late last week, forcing us to wonder if he'll return to the game again. Despite his respectable numbers, he realistically offers little to Baltimore's offense, and his persistent injury problems likely will prevent the Orioles from moving any of Segui's contract. While his career-best 4.06 #P/PA indicates he still possesses decent plate discipline, a falling .79 contact rate and poor 1.90 G-F indicates a nearly complete loss of power potential. Even a .300 BA doesn't allow a singles' hitter to play regularly at DH, yet B.J. Surhoff owns worse skills than Segui. As long as your league allows you to DL Segui or otherwise replace him without taking up a primary reserve spot, wait since he could come back soon to regular at-bats. However, also remain ready to take advantage of any opportunity to swap Segui for a more dependable option, even just a reserve like Ruben Sierra, Rob Fick, or the currently benched Aaron Guiel.

Boston: Jason Varitek, C
24/75 for .320/.433/.560 with 5 HR, 13 RBI, 13 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 15:16 BB:K.

Rather than decline after his career year last season, Varitek now looks like perhaps the best catcher in baseball. A career-worst 1.50 G-F suggests he won't maintain this power output, but a career-best 4.61 #P/PA indicates comprehensive plate discipline development. While Varitek's .79 contact rate could cause his BA drop and I expect his production to decline across the board by the end of the year, however he also should remain extremely effective for the next couple months. Shop Varitek, yet don't move him unless you add an equally solid starting catcher or a significant upgrade elsewhere.

Chicago White Sox: Juan Uribe, SS/2B
28/63 for .384/.430/.603 with 4 HR, 12 RBI, 11 R, 2/4 SB%,
and a 5:12 BB:K.

Uribe only turns 25 this July, however his skills appear very close to the marks he managers with the Rockies over the past three years when he averaged a .258/.298/.408 line. Expecting him to finish the season even with a .284 BA and .833 OPS seems seem a mistake given his established level of performance. Of course, playing every day in one of baseball's better offenses provides him with a situation nearly as nice as his environment in Colorado, but I just don't see Uribe holding these averages much longer. Shop him heavily until you find someone who believes that his current production merely fulfills the expectations that developed when he posted a .300/.325/.524 over the last two months of 2001.

Cleveland: Ron Belliard, 2B
36/90 for .400/.481/.522 with 0 HR, 11 RBI, 15 R, 2/2 SB%,
and a 14:11 BB:K.

Both Belliard and Matt Lawton rank as obvious overachievers, but while Lawton just might maintain his power output, Belliard will not keep his average around .400 much longer. Of course, his impressively developing plate discipline at least gives him a good chance to finish the year near .300, and he only needs to hold a .275 BA over the rest of the season to reach that goal. The problem here is that he simply isn't contributing anything other than BA, so taking advantage of any opportunity to deal a .400 hitter for currently commensurate value will benefit almost any team.

Detroit: Brandon Inge, C/OF/3B
19/59 for .322/.403/.542 with 3 HR, 16 RBI, 9 R, 1/1 SB%,
and an 8:16 BB:K.

I saw no indication prior to the season that Inge would post a BA significantly over his .198 career mark, so even his improved plate discipline won't convince me he can hold his average anywhere near this level. Despite a history of good patience and respectable power potential, Inge simply seemed incapable of consistent success at the plate. Few players warrant selling high more than the historically horrible Inge, so if you lucked into him as your second catcher, deal him now for any underachieving skilled starter you can grab.

Kansas City: Ken Harvey, 1B/DH
26/71 for .366/.418/.521 with 3 HR, 11 RBI, 9 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 7:10 BB:K.

Unlike several players discussed today, Harvey's .328 minor league BA lends credence to the idea that he'll remain reasonably productive this year. The 26-year-old began only his second season in the majors this spring, and while I don't expect him to hold a .350 BA and .900 OPS, a .300 BA and .800 OPS will qualify as a welcome development after his mediocre 2003. Shop Harvey, however don't move him unless you receive a $20+ player since he likely can reach that value with a little luck.

Minnesota: Lew Ford, OF
27/69 for .391/.449/.652 with 3 HR, 17 RBI, 14 R, 2/2 SB%,
and an 8:7 BB:K.
1/5 for .200/.200/.200 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:1 BB:K.

While he always owned good skills, Ford lost the backup outfield job to Mike Ryan at the end of camp and only returned to the majors as an injury replacement for Torii Hunter. Of course, thanks to the injuries sustained by Hunter, Matt LeCroy, and Joe Mauer, Ford stayed in the lineup regularly, taking advantage of the unexpected opportunity to reach the ranks of the most valuable players in the league at the end of April. His plate discipline and impressive statistical history also suggest he at least can echo these numbers if he continues playing everyday, so wait unless you see the chance to exchange him for a more established starter. Ford deserves to start for the Twins, but with two veteran outfielders signed to long-term deals and several solid youngsters near the majors, he'll need to remain quite productive to enjoy regular at-bats indefinitely.

New York Yankees: Jorge Posada, C
19/63 for .292/.409/.708 with 6 HR, 15 RBI, 15 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 15:10 BB:K.

The quantitative numbers of the perennial AL All-Star aren't overly impressive, but I didn't expect the 32-year-old catcher to exceed his previous best OPS by over 175 points. Although his averages almost certainly will decrease in upcoming months, his fantasy value actually remains relatively close to his established level of excellence. Only shop Posada if you see an opportunity to improve a couple of your weakest positions since you really can't replace his production behind the plate.

Oakland: Marco Scutaro, 2B/SS
26/84 for .310/.330/.393 with 0 HR, 8 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 3:15 BB:K.

With his averages in free fall and limited quantitative production, Scutaro's usefulness as a starter for both Oakland and fantasy teams soon should end. The return of Mark McLemore gives the Athletics the veteran second baseman they wanted to replace Mark Ellis, and since Scutaro isn't even demonstrating the solid skills he used to own, he may not even remain a backup in the majors. Try to deal him now before his dwindling at-bats and diminishing performance eliminates his fantasy value.

Seattle: Dan Wilson, C
17/57 for .298/.339/.404 with 1 HR, 9 RBI, 2 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 4:8 BB:K.

Rather than continuing his decline, the 35-year-old backstop instead reemerged as the undisputed starter thanks to a career-best BA and an abhorrent start to the season by Ben Davis that soon should force the failed prospect out of Seattle. Wilson shouldn't maintain his current averages, but since he also owns his best overall skills, feel free to target him if you need a small BA boost. He should finish the year with at least a few bucks of fantasy value even if he compiles meager quantitative totals.

Tampa Bay: Julio Lugo, SS
23/75 for .293/.333/.476 with 2 HR, 13 RBI, 9 R, 2/2 SB%,
and a 4:11 BB:K.

Although this BA technically is relatively near his .270 norm, Lugo's overall value appears more inflated than any of his teammates. The poor performances by most Rays this spring accounts for that moderately surprisingly discontinuity, however I don't see any skill improvement that warrants any valuation of Lugo above the very low double digits. You probably should wait since he still should reach a dozen homers and steals, but he simply isn't a particularly useful player compared to most AL shortstops.

Texas: David Dellucci, OF
21/61 for .344/.369/.607 with 4 HR, 7 RBI, 13 R, 3/3 SB%,
and a 2:11 BB:K.

Dellucci posted a .394 BA in 109 at-bats for Arizona in 1999, so his performance isn't a total shock. However, few players add over 300 points to their OPS in a single season, making Dellucci an even bigger early surprise than fellow Ranger overacheivers Mike Young or Laynce Nix. More importantly, the lack of any overt skill improvement suggests Dellucci won't maintain this level of performance, and with Brian Jordan's recent return, Dellucci also shouldn't remain in the lineup every day. Look to deal Dellucci before the combination of his decreasing production and playing time severely diminished his trade value.

Toronto: Chris Gomez, SS
10/29 for .345/.441/.483 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:7 BB:K.

Anyone who grabbed Gomez this spring as a middle infielder in deep leagues lucked into a surprisingly strong start from a normal BA drag. Unfortunately, he still owns poor power skills and mediocre plate discipline, so all his averages easily could fall a hundred points by the end of the season. Look to deal Gomez while his impressive BA might net you a replacement MIF with decent quantitative upside or at least a better shot at holding a .300 average.

We'll continue tomorrow with National League overachieving batters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you see one of your established position players with a batting average more than 50 points over his career average and he hasn't dramatically developed his plate discipline, active shop the player to take advantage of the temporary elevation in his perceived value.