Today's Fantasy Rx

Last week I analyzed the two NL starters that had started four games, dominated in three of those starts, and pitched solidly in the other outing: Cory Lidle and Jake Peavy. I also looked at Carlos Zambrano, Zach Day, Joe Kennedy, and Brad Penny, who each dominated in their first three outings. Given another week, three more pitchers joined Peavy, Kennedy, Lidle, and Penny by dominating in four of their first five starts.

Only two NL starters have started four games, dominated in three of those starts, and pitched solidly in the other outing. Another four pitchers dominated in each of their first three outings. We've included the 2004 QA scores for each of these pitchers.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

43444
Jerome Williams, SF: 3-1 on a 19:7 K:BB in 34.1 IP with 28 H, 5 HR, a 1.74 G-F, and a 3.93 ERA. Although Williams still isn't registering the strikeout totals I want to see from him, the 22-year-old ranks as one of the most effective starters in the league thanks to a surprisingly low hit rate and a great 1.8 walk rate. A 40% improvement in his ground-fly rate from last year similarly should send his homer rate falling over the course of the year, so even if the Giants' defense remains rather weak, Williams should cruise to a sub-4.00 ERA. His impressive .232/.286/.304 performance against left-handers suggests he possesses the skills to stay among the top NL pitchers for many years. Anyone in keeper leagues should target Williams now to secure one of baseball's future star starters.

52444
Brandon Webb, ARI: 2-1 on a 27:18 K:BB in 30 IP with 23 H, 1 HR, a 3.06 G-F, and a 2.10 ERA. After watching his walk rate jump from 2.4 to 4.5 BB/9 in the second half of 2003, Webb's current 5.4 BB/9 leaves him vulnerable to patient teams. Of course, with only four NL teams owning on-base percentages over .350, I don't see many particularly patient teams on Webb's upcoming schedule. Given that his 8.1 K/9 and 3.06 G-F both rank very near his excellent rookie marks, I expect Webb to continue succeeding despite the control problems. His ground-fly rate alone severely limits his downside especially given his hitter-friendly home park, leaving Webb among the safer investments of any NL starter.

05454
Ben Sheets, MIL: 3-1 on a 27:3 K:BB in 27.1 IP with 25 H, 3 HR, a 1.30 G-F, and a 3.21 ERA. Since I discussed Sheets two days ago, I won't go into more detail here, other than to mention that after his initial first disaster, he owns an unbelievable 24:0 K:BB in 24 IP with 20 H, 3 HR, a 1.25 G-F, and a 2.63 ERA. With his skills at this unbelievable level, a soft upcoming schedule, and a history of May improvements, Sheets appears on track to coast to an All-Star Game appearance.

When examining dominant NL relievers two weeks ago, only eight pitchers had dominated in four outings: LaTroy Hawkins, Chris Reitsma, Dan Miceli, Duaner Sanchez, Kevin Gryboski, Billy Wagner, Eric Gagne, and Matt Herges. While most of these pitchers remain among the top NL relievers, four more of the best NL relievers warrant reviews this week thanks to their combination of impressive upside and minimal downside. We've included the ten most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

7 DOM, 4 DUL, 0 DIS
Akinori Otsuka, SD(4344345434): 2-1 and 1 Save on a 12:3 K:BB in 13 IP with 6 H, 0 HR, a 0.86 G-F, and a 0.69 ERA. Combining impressive dominance and outstanding command with a brand new park that heavily favors pitchers makes Otsuka perhaps the safest middle reliever to own in baseball. He allowed one run in the second game of the season and then only let five men reach base in his next ten outings. Yet Otsuka somehow remains available in over 75% of all ESPN fantasy leagues, and I expect the numbers are similar in most other relatively shallow leagues. He remains the logical alternative to Trevor Hoffman in case of injury despite Rod Beck's pending return, although Otsuka's qualitative contributions alone merit a roster spot in any standard league. If you ever see him available on your free agent wire, make every effort to add him immediately.

6 DOM, 5 DUL, 0 DIS
John Riedling, CIN(5433443334): 0-0 and 0 Saves on an 8:3 K:BB in 10.2 IP with 4 H, 0 HR, a 1.89 G-F, and a 0.84 ERA. Following an awful spring training in which he compiled a 9:13 K:BB in 14.2 IP, consistently effective pitching this April ranks Riedling among the safest NL relievers. Of course, an unusually low hit rate accounts for most of his success, but he also owns both good dominance and control. While his ground-fly rate doesn't match his pre-injury levels of a few years ago, Riedling still won't allow many homers. He belongs on your roster in any standard NL league, especially since we keep hearing rumors that the Marlins desperately want to deal for him.

6 DOM, 4 DUL, 0 DIS
John Smoltz, ATL(3335535555): 0-0 and 3 Saves on an 11:0 K:BB in 10 IP with 7 H, 3 HR, a 1.00 G-F, and a 3.60 ERA. Allowing home runs in each of his first three appearances biased Smoltz's stats in an unfavorable direction. Since that poor beginning, he owns a 7:0 K:BB in 7 IP with 2 H, 0 HR, a 1.00 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. He looks much stronger right now than Eric Gagne, and his low April save total only will depress his cost in trade. Attempt to add him now before his quantitative improvement and continued qualitative excellence drives his price back to pre-season levels.

Braden Looper, NYM(3354433554): 0-0 and 4 Saves on an 8:1 K:BB in 10.1 IP with 10 H, 0 HR, a 2.86 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Unlike the established ace closers of the league, Looper requires no excuses after a month of dominating opposing batters. Okay, so allowing three of his five inherited runners to score won't endear him to his fellow relievers, but he looks like one of the safest options available among an unusually shaky NL closer corps. If you see his owner looking to sell high, try to grab Looper since I see no reason he won't echo these stars throughout the year.

Tomorrow, like every Sunday during the season, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.

Today's Fantasy Rx: NL owners looking for pitching help should target Jerome Williams if they can't get Ben Sheets among starters, Otsuka or Duaner Sanchez among middle relievers, and Looper or Smoltz among closers.