Today's Fantasy Rx

I'll spend one more week looking at a few individually dominant pitchers before hopefully presenting the first in-season LPR rankings of 2004 next week.

Last week I analyzed the six AL starters that had started four games, dominated in three of those starts, and pitched solidly in the other outing: Mark Mulder, Kevin Brown, Victor Zambrano, Curt Schilling, Tim Hudson, and Mike Maroth. Given another week of starts, three more pitchers, a trio of the most established stud starters in the majors, reached similar qualifications.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

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Javier Vazquez, NYY: 2-2 on a 24:6 K:BB in 27.1 IP with 21 H, 5 HR, a 1.21 G-F, and a 2.63 ERA. While teammate Kevin Brown enjoyed facing Tampa for three early starts, Vazquez at least avoided the normal danger from mixing White and Red Sox by winning his games against Chicago. Unfortunately, two losses to Boston left him with an elevated homer rate and an otherwise impressive April marred by an mediocre record. Fortunately he should move to 3-2 with a win today against the Royals. The solid ground-fly suggests his homer rate should drop, leaving owners with little reason not to desire Vazquez. Anyone competing in national contests with open player pools similarly should employ him as often as possible given Vazquez's dominance and overall upside.

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Pedro Martinez, BOS: 3-1 on a 28:10 K:BB in 32.2 IP with 28 H, 4 HR, a .82 G-F, and a 3.03 ERA. Although the poor ground-fly rate supports the elevated homer rate, and I expect Pedro could struggle this weekend in Texas, he otherwise appears on track to enjoy another impressive season. He next faces Cleveland twice and then Toronto twice, so unless either of those lineups improves very quickly, four straight wins wouldn't surprise me. Don't expect Pedro to reach 200 innings even if he stays healthy, so he might not contribute as much qualitatively as some pitchers. A pitch limit in the neighborhood of 100 similarly will limit his win total. Yet these precautions hopefully will keep him healthy all year, increasing his relative value to fantasy owners who can worry at least a little less about a potential serious injury.

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Roy Halladay, TOR: 2-3 on a 31:8 K:BB in 35.2 IP with 41 H, 5 HR, a 2.00 G-F, and a 3.53 ERA. Yes, pitching in the SkyDome in front of Toronto's questionable defense and a currently poor offense makes him a mildly risky play. Fortunately for his owners, Halladay still looks like a dominant horse who should stay among the top starters in the majors for the next decade. Upcoming starts against the White Sox, Royals, Twins, and Red Sox don't exactly provide him with the easier competition, so he probably isn't someone you want to go get now unless desperate for an ace. However, his long-term value appears incredibly high, especially as he should enjoy facing Seattle, Oakland, Arizona, San Francisco, Tampa, and Montreal.

When examining dominant AL relievers two weeks ago, only six pitchers had dominated in four outings: Francisco Rodriguez, J.C. Romero, Arthur Rhodes, Juan Rincon, Mariano Rivera, and Rafael Betancourt. While all six remain among the top dozen AL relievers, four more of the best AL relievers warrant reviews this week thanks to their combination of impressive upside and minimal downside. We've included the ten most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

8 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS
B.J. Ryan, BAL(4344432444): 1-0 and 1 Save on a 19:6 K:BB in 13 IP with 10 H, 0 HR, a 2.00 G-F, and a 1.39 ERA. While both Ryan's walk rate and complete lack of 5 QA scores trouble me, his otherwise dominant performance makes him a great target. He hasn't allowed a single hit from any of the sixteen left-handed batters managers let face him, and he only allowed a single extra-base hit in 35 at-bats by right-handed batters. Manager Lee Mazzilli also indicated that Ryan likely will close if Jorge Julio struggles, making him an additionally useful quantitative sleeper. Although Ryan hadn't allowed an earned run until last night and now should see his qualitative stats continue to rise, expect him to complete the season with an ERA near his 3.40 mark in 2004. Be happy if you still can add him in any of your leagues.

6 DOM, 5 DUL, 1 DIS
Danny Patterson, DET(4432343434): 0-1 and 1 Save on a 5:2 K:BB in 12.2 IP with 12 H, 2 HR, a 1.50 G-F, and a 4.26 ERA. Several problems prevent me from wholeheartedly recommending Patterson. His career-worst ground-fly rate indicates potential homer problems. The Tigers' weak defense similarly could create WHIP problems. Despite excellent control, Patterson also isn't dominating many opponents and hasn't posted a 5 QA score all year. Of course, he should save an occasional game as the primary alternative to Ugueth Urbina, and he should hold reasonably strong qualitative stats all year. I view Patterson as a riskier pitcher than many similar relievers, but I also have no problem with rostering him in any reasonably deep AL league.

6 DOM, 4 DUL, 1 DIS
Scot Shields, ANA(4333544515): 2-0 and 1 Save on a 24:9 K:BB in 18.1 IP with 16 H, 1 HR, a 2.25 G-F, and a 4.91 ERA. Hopefully Anaheim will leave him in the bullpen despite their increasingly porous rotation as Shields gives them another dominant reliever. He also appears able to pitch multiple innings almost every other day, making him one of the most useful pitchers in the league. Shields' role positions him nicely to accumulate both double-digit vulture wins and a few long saves, and even if he can't maintain an 11.8 K/9, his early dominance indicates significant statistical potential. While the Angels' inconsistent defense and Shields' walk rate could leave him with unimpressive qualitative numbers, he easily could accumulate more fantasy value than any other AL middle reliever thanks to his quantitative upside.

5 DOM, 5 DUL, 0 DIS
Mike Timlin, BOS(3343335454): 1-1 and 1 Save on a 10:4 K:BB in 10.2 IP with 9 H, 0 HR, a 1.75 G-F, and a 5.06 ERA. Timlin similarly started slowly last season before his excellent control led to three straight summer months with a sub-3.00 ERA. My biggest concern is that his skills will begin deteriorating since Timlin turned 38 during spring training. Of course, two walks, three hits, and three earned runs on Opening Day account for most of the problems with his numbers, and his increasingly dominant outings lead me to conclude that Timlin belongs in any discussion of the safest AL middle relievers to own. If he appears on your league's free agent lists, strongly consider remedying that situation at your first opportunity.

We'll continue tomorrow with a look at dominant NL pitchers this year.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While the three starters discussed above should be owned in every AL and mixed league in the world, at least one of these relievers could be available even in relatively deep AL leagues. Feel free to add any member of the skilled foursome when looking for some qualitative stability at the end of your roster.