Today's Fantasy Rx

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA drop by at least 1.50 from April to May. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show a drop in ERA from April to May while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years.

Randy Wolf, LH Starter, PHI: -2.45 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between April and May:
2001: 4.94; 2002: 2.28; 2003: 1.10.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	15/15	83.1	86/10	73:38	5-7/0	5.29
May	16/16	104.2	84/8	101:40	7-3/0	2.84

04APR	4/4	25.1	23/3	16:7	1-1/0	3.55

While Wolf's strikeout rate is a bit lower than normal this season, his overall skill set appears quite solid. A 2.5 BB/9, 8.2 H/9, and a 1.1 HR/9 all depict a pitcher with good control and limited downside, and even a .91 G-F doesn't overly concern me given Wolf's history of success with similar ground-fly ratios. His 5.7 K/9 also isn't particularly poor, and a 4234 QA log suggests that Wolf at least should remain a fantasy asset even if he won't enjoy a career year in 2004. I don't believe we'll see him significantly improve in May, however his ERA should fall below 3.00 for the month. Although the Phillies play in both Arizona and Colorado, Wolf currently appears on schedule to miss starts in both venues in addition to enjoying an SBC Park start in two weeks. He seems prepared to post very helpful stats for the next few months, so if the low strikeout rate concerns his current owner, make every attempt to acquire Wolf now given the likelihood he'll enjoy a few strong months before declining towards the end of the season.

Jarrod Washburn, LH Starter, ANA: -2.36 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between April and May:
2001: 3.83; 2002: 2.29; 2003: 2.31.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	13/13	81.2	91/9	28:29	4-7/0	4.96
May	17/17	117.2	96/10	85:36	9-3/0	2.60

04APR	4/4	20.2	28/2	16:10	3-1/0	6.10

No Angels starter looks particularly great this year, although Washburn looks like a better bet than fellow holdovers John Lackey and Ramon Ortiz. Yet Anaheim's defense hasn't provided him with much support, and these control problems trouble me since Washburn's past success appeared inextricably intertwined with his low walk rate. While his .78 G-F is his best mark in a few years, he also remains a very homer-prone pitcher. The one bright spot here is a career-best 7.0 K/9, however fantasy owners will not be pleased if he holds a high walk rate thanks to the increased strikeout rate. A 3333 QA illustrates a perfectly mediocre pitcher, and only a likely high win total thanks to Anaheim's offense makes Washburn a good gamble right now. Target him if you need the wins, but don't expect to see a sub-4.00 ERA here any time soon.

Octavio Dotel, RH Reliever, HOU: -1.85 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between April and May:
2001: 2.25; 2002: 0.80; 2003: 1.06.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	3/27	44.0	39/5	44:23	2-3/1	4.09
May	1/41	56.1	38/4	66:20	5-3/2	2.24

04APR	0/8	9.1	7/2	10:4	0-1/2	2.89

With 6 dominant appearances and only a single disaster, Dotel demonstrates no sign of significant skill problems. His low save total appears entirely due to a lack of opportunity, particularly since all his 2004 skill ratios remain relatively in line with his established norms. Expect his ERA to duck close to 2.00 next month as his dominance should continue obscuring his flyball tendency. Houston also enjoys a mostly unimpressive slate of competition, so only lofty run totals will prohibit Dotel from compiling several saves. Try to acquire him now before his rising fantasy value will dissuade Dotel's current owner from moving him at any point this season.

Ben Sheets, RH Starter, MIL: -1.83 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between April and May:
2001: 2.52; 2002: 1.89; 2003: 1.13.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	15/15	90.2	108/12	65:31	4-8/0	4.96
May	17/17	115.0	100/13	75:35	6-5/0	3.13

04APR	5/5	28.0	25/3	27:3	3-1/0	3.21

Sheets' 05454 QA log nicely illustrates his dominance this season. After a weak Opening Day start against the Cardinals, he dominated Houston twice before excelling in road starts in Arizona and St. Louis. With perhaps the toughest portion of Milwaukee's schedule behind him, he should enjoy a likely May slate of opponents that includes Cincinnati, Montreal, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Los Angeles. The Brewers don't head to an overt hitters' park until they finally visit Coors at the end of June, giving us no reason to expect Sheets won't continue this outstanding performance for another month. His current skill set ranks him with the best pitchers in the majors, making him a superb target to acquire in any league.

Jim Brower, RH Reliever, SF: -1.74 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between April and May:
2001: 0.49; 2002: 2.72; 2003: 1.97.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	3/22	53.0	63/6	26:20	6-1/2	5.77
May	1/29	51.1	48/3	36:23	1-3/1	4.03

04APR	0/13	12.1	16/0	3:4	0-1/0	3.65

Felipe Alou obviously likes Brower as the Giants' manager has employed the veteran right-hander in 13 of the team's 21 games to date. I feel comfortable attributing Brower's low strikeout rate to his frequent appearances, and if San Francisco's defense wasn't the worst in the league this year, his ERA would be near 3.00. Solid walk and homer rates, in addition to a 1.44 G-F, makes Brower a fairly safe player to own in most leagues. While he opened the year with a weak 33201 QA log, his 43343343 over his last eight outings depicts a perfectly useful pitcher in any NL league. You certainly can't expect great fantasy numbers from him and he won't accumulate many wins or saves, but I see no reason not to recommend him now. Brower normally improves in both May and June, so look to acquire him anywhere you need roster filler with a modicum of upside, especially if you can bench Brower when the Giants head to Puerto Rico in mid-May and then spend a week in Arizona and Colorado at the beginning of June.

Sidney Ponson, RH Starter, SF: -1.60 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between April and May:
2001: 3.40; 2002: 0.86; 2003: 1.30.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	13/13	78.1	84/14	65:23	3-7/0	5.40
May	15/15	97.0	99/9	73:32	8-2/0	3.80

04APR	5/8	30.2	32/1	14:13	2-1/0	5.28

Ponson's 23043 QA log definitely worries me, particularly since his only dominant start occurred in Tampa Bay. However the only overly troubling stat here, other than a surprisingly high ERA, is his 4.1 K/9. A 3.8 walk rate, .3 homer rate, 9.4 hit rate, and 1.46 G-F all appear in line with his established level of performance. While he certainly isn't approaching his impressive stats from last season, upcoming appearances against Cleveland, Seattle, and Anaheim, as well as probable back-to-back starts versus the White Sox, don't particularly concern me. Unfortunately, his poor command keeps me from an outright recommendation, but if you grabbed Ponson this spring under the belief that he'd echo his 2003 numbers, continue to wait with the expectation that his skills will stabilize near his solid all-around marks from last year.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Although all six of these pitchers should post very helpful fantasy numbers next month, Ben Sheets and Octavio Dotel easily rank as the best bets for long-term success. Attempt to add either pitcher in every league where you don't need to mortgage half your team to acquire them.