Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players whose May performances historically differ dramatically from their stats in April. To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 100 AB in both April and May over the last three years while showing a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months. They also must show either an improvement or decline in both BA and OPS from April to May while registering at least 25 at-bats in both months in each of the last three years.

Today we'll focus on improving hitters, tomorrow will be declining hitters, and then we'll spend the following two days on improving and then declining pitchers.

Rey Sanchez, 2B, TB: +.147 BA; +.350 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between April and May:
2001: .116/.222; 2002: .118/.332; 2003: .226/.547.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	218	6:28	.216/.238/.257
May	240	11:10	.363/.387/.458

04APR	34	2:6	.235/.278/.235

Yes, Sanchez's overall stats appear fairly terrible right now. He hasn't homered, stolen a base, or driven in a run, and his meager 2 runs scored don't offset his poor batting average. However, all his skills seem fairly in line with his performance in previous seasons. While he isn't someone you should want to own anywhere, he merits significant attention if you need a replacement MIF due to injury. You certainly can't expect more than a meager quantitative contribution from Sanchez, but feel free to target him on any team where you need a BA boost from any middle infield position.

Jim Thome, 1B, PHI: +.100 BA; +.258 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between April and May:
2001: .104/.391; 2002: .120/.149; 2003: .070/.252.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	244	49:75	.209/.349/.443
May	269	60:76	.309/.437/.613

04APR	61	8:19	.344/.429/.689

The Phillies' only current consistent offensive threat should elevate his productivity to a truly special level if he even echoes his normal May improvement. He also seems like a good player to acquire right now since Thome's very low total of 7 RBI might make his owner more amenable to dealing him. Despite a .69 contact rate and a mildly troubling 3.83 #P/PA, his worst mark in over a decade, a .82 G-F and solid overall performance at least indicates he should match these numbers for another month. If the top of Philadelphia's order improves, a .350/8/24 month wouldn't shock me. Thome is an excellent target for any team that needs a significant batting boost.

Javy Lopez, C, BAL: +.066 BA; +.240 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between April and May:
2001: .071/.191; 2002: .030/.059; 2003: .096/.431.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	207	10:37	.222/.275/.362
May	229	13:40	.288/.331/.546

04APR	70	9:9	.371/.443/.571

Rather than relax after signing his new contract, Lopez instead continues to challenge IRod and now Jorge Posada for supremacy among AL catchers. While his plate patience and power potential appear slightly down from last year's marks, Lopez's production and overall plate discipline both rank as career-bests. The downside to his stunning April is that his current owner should have no reason to move him, especially since every trend I see indicates Lopez at least should maintain this level of effectiveness for another May. Target him if you need catching help, but I suspect the asking price will cost you too much to make the trade worthwhile.

Jose Guillen, OF, ANA: +.081 BA; +.237 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between April and May:
2001: .115/.315; 2002: .067/.163; 2003: .043/.109.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	142	4:21	.239/.264/.366
May	175	6:35	.320/.353/.514

04APR	72	4:16	.250/.316/.333

With both Garrett Anderson and Vlad Guerrero currently hurting, the Angels desperately need Guillen's offensive effectiveness to improve in the near future. Fortunately for Anaheim, most of Guillen's stats suggest at least his batting average should head upward soon. My major concern here is a 2.14 G-F, which easily ranks as the worst mark of his career and will limit his power potential. I still expect Guillen to enjoy a strong May, as well as respectable performances in June and July, but anyone hoping for the .357/.382/.667 he managed last May will be disappointed. Only acquire him in most leagues if he costs obviously less than any price commensurate with his 2003 production.

Fernando Vina, 2B, DET: +.070 BA; +.226 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between April and May:
2001: .055/.174; 2002: .061/.218; 2003: .100/.297.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	292	11:26	.253/.305/.339
May	300	19:19	.323/.390/.480

04APR	69	7:7	.246/.346/.290

The 35-year-old's skills currently suggest intriguing immediate upside. Unfortunately, a career-worst 3.64 G-F largely limits the upside indicated by a career-best 3.63 #P/PA. He also no longer appears to own any speed skills of note. As playing for the Tigers similarly limits Vina's quantitative upside, only target him for your team if you need the BA boost from your second baseman and Vina costs no more than Rey Sanchez since both players appear likely to post similar stats next month. He isn't someone who offers any significant long-term benefit to your team.

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA: +.092 BA; +.193 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between April and May:
2001: .043/.152; 2002: .088/.061; 2003: .146/.250.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	325	25:28	.298/.353/.400
May	346	24:26	.390/.434/.512

04APR	84	6:9	.286/.333/.310

If Ichiro's May BA improvement continues this established trend, a .400 average next month appears quite reasonable consider he managed a .404 last May. Of course, Ichiro's skills this year don't resemble his marks from previous seasons. After averaging less than 3.50 pitches per plate appearance over the last three year, he now owns a 3.97 #P/PA mark. A 5.40 G-F also is more than double any of his three previous ground-fly ratios and suggests we can't expect any notable power production from him in 2004. Fortunately, at least his 3 steals aren't an issue since he doesn't normally steal many bases in April. Now looks like an excellent time to acquire Ichiro, however also remember that a likely second-half slide means you only can expect two great months of fantasy contributions, leaving any success he enjoys in the second half as merely a bonus.

Jeff Conine, OF/1B, FLO: +.051 BA; +.193 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between April and May:
2001: .117/.355; 2002: .025/.216; 2003: .028/.048.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	229	21:29	.253/.314/.367
May	296	23:50	.304/.347/.527

04APR	54	4:11	.222/.246/.296

We can't expect great numbers from Conine this year thanks to the downside of playing in Florida and his approaching 38th birthday in June. However, a 3.66 #P/PA and .82 G-F suggest he still should enjoy a respectable season. His normal May improvement makes him a good target now for anyone looking to boost their COR or OF production, and he also shouldn't cost too much given his age and limited upside.

Brian Giles, OF, SD: +.062 BA; +.188 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between April and May:
2001: .112/.290; 2002: .006/.036; 2003: .082/.305.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	176	26:16	.267/.358/.506
May	286	51:42	.329/.440/.612

04APR	67	15:12	.179/.325/.328

Petco Park appears responsible for some of Giles' early troubles as his .111/.256/.194 at home pales in comparison to an acceptable .229/.364/.429 on the road. Contact problems look like the other problem here, but an excellent performance over the past week suggests his stats will continue heading upward. Aside from his weak contact rate, all Giles' other skills remain in line with his previous numbers, so make every attempt to acquire him now before his likely May breakout prevents his current owner from even considering a deal.

Jason Giambi, 1B, NYY: +.054 BA; +.183 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between April and May:
2001: .034/.030; 2002: .058/.332; 2003: .056/.138.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	276	58:61	.275/.416/.489
May	301	59:60	.329/.443/.645

04APR	49	13:8	.184/.385/.347

If we include his two games in Japan, Giambi's .204/.419/.426 this year looks somewhat similar to his normal April performance. Given his excellent plate discipline, we should see his batting average steadily climb over the next few months. Unfortunately, a .91 G-F really worries me, especially since he hasn't posted a ground-fly ratio above .84 since 1995. Considering his overall offensive effectiveness right now, Giambi still seems like someone you should target as a potential bargain, but I'm not confident he'll contribute more than about $30 of fantasy value to most roto teams.

Vinny Castilla, 3B, COL: +.066 BA; +.180 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between April and May:
2001: .082/.206; 2002: .061/.118; 2003: .060/.229.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	265	12:54	.219/.262/.358
May	267	13:39	.285/.317/.483

04APR	63	9:12	.333/.411/.714

Injuries to Preston Wilson and Larry Walker forced Castilla into the cleanup hole, where his production currently exceeds any of his previous seasons in Colorado. Hitting behind Todd Helton provides him with an obvious advantage, suggesting that the 36-year-old third baseman could remain reasonably effective at the plate all season. A career-best 3.65 #P/PA accounts for his improved plate discipline, and his 1.25 G-F indicates solid power potential in Coors. The only downside of Castilla's fantastic early performance is that his value only can decrease from this point. Certainly wait if you grabbed him this spring since Castilla looks like an excellent bet to continue contributing to fantasy teams at this level of excellence for another month, but don't explore a potential trade for him unless your team is desperate for a significant 3B upgrade.

Paul LoDuca, C, LA: +.064 BA; +.111 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between April and May:
2001: .027/.055; 2002: .025/.012; 2003: .122/.220.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	220	14:18	.295/.351/.445
May	220	21:15	.359/.416/.491

04APR	62	5:1	.452/.478/.565

Expecting LoDuca to maintain this level of production much longer is just silly, forget about seeing any improvement next month. However, he generally excels in May and June, so he appears reasonably likely to earn his second straight All-Star berth this year. A career-best 3.68 #P/PA helps support his unbelievable plate discipline; LoDuca simply isn't missing when he swings at a pitch. The only problem is that a career-worst 1.61 G-F limits his power potential, especially since he'll play over 100 games this year at Dodger Stadium, SBC Park, and Petco Park. Of course, I doubt LoDuca's owners overly mind his unimpressive quantitative numbers given his outstanding batting average. Selling high near the All-Star break might be a decent idea, but wait now since he should keep his average well over .300 for another couple of months.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While researching this article, I discovered that ESPN.com retains data on each player's splits back through 1987. To access the older data, simply change the year in the HTML address in your browser. For example, Rey Sanchez's 2003 splits are at this address. Simply change the last digit to a 1 to access his 2001 splits, and following a similar method to check the historical splits for any other player.