Today's Fantasy Rx

After reviewing relievers last week, I'll look at the most dominant starters thus far in 2004 this weekend. Once again, please remember that the fairly limited sample size of statistics generated thus far in 2004 renders the following comments far more useful as general guidelines rather than specific recommendations.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Only two NL starters have started four games, dominated in three of those starts, and pitched solidly in the other outing. Another four pitchers dominated in each of their first three outings. We've included the 2004 QA scores for each of these pitchers.

4444
Cory Lidle, CIN: 2-1 on a 10:3 K:BB in 24.0 IP over 4 GS with 24 H, 1 HR, a 1.75 G-F, and a 4.13 ERA. While he isn't dominating anyone and certainly isn't a great choice in 5x5 leagues, Lidle's overall effectiveness makes him a fairly safe play right now despite concerns regarding the Reds' home park and defense. He walks so few batters that even high hit rates don't overly diminish his impressive WHIP contribution. A rising ground-fly ratio also suggests we shouldn't need to worry about the combination of hit and homer rate problems that killed his qualitative stats last year. Of course, you should not expect Lidle to exceed double-digit value by much, but considering he only cost a few dollars in many drafts, he seems like one of the safest pitchers probably available from owners looking to sell high. Since he easily could hold his ERA under 4.00 most of the year, his skills suggest owners should add him now before his trade cost significantly increases.

3444
Jake Peavy, SD: 1-1 on a 17:10 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 4 GS with 21 H, 0 HR, a 1.62 G-F, and a 1.54 ERA. Control problems primarily appear responsible for preventing Peavy from enjoying the fantastic WHIP that normally should accompany an ERA this low. Both his dominance and command continue to decline, yet I can't recommend even shopping him right now. Petco Park looks like a potential pitchers' haven on par with Dodger Stadium and SBC Park, making any San Diego pitcher a sound investment. With Peavy's solid ground-fly rate further limiting his downside, I see little reason not to see how he develops if you snagged him this spring. His minor league stats suggest significant long-term upside and Cy Young potential, and he should approach double-digit value this season. On the other hand, with his walk rate remaining rather high, he isn't someone you currently should seek in trade talks.

455
Carlos Zambrano, CHC: 2-0 on a 17:6 K:BB in 21.0 IP over 3 GS with 15 H, 1 HR, a 1.94 G-F, and a 1.29 ERA. Since he shouldn't face a particularly scary start until interleague play, Zambrano could echo these numbers over his next several appearances. I see no sign of any carryover of his struggles towards the end of 2003, and with all his skills at impressive levels, Zambrano could enjoy a true breakout season with a sub-3.00 ERA and more than 15 wins. The only obvious downside here is that high pitch counts limit his innings while increasing his risk of injury. No one should average nearly 112 pitchers per start in their initial trio of April appearances, especially not 22-year-olds with nearly unlimited potential. Consequently, risk-averse owners should avoid Zambrano. I currently won't be surprised if he either exceeds $20 or ends up on the DL by the end of next month.

445
Zach Day, MON: 1-1 on a 15:8 K:BB in 19.0 IP over 3 GS with 11 H, 2 HR, a 2.64 G-F, and a 2.84 ERA. While Montreal's offense ranks among the least prolific April attacks in baseball history, Day might be emerging quietly as a solid starter. His ERA will rise when his now abnormally low hit rate normalizes, but his decent command and very good ground-fly rate at least limit his downside. Although Day's injury history and incredibly inconsistent 2003 performance make him a definite risk, he could help owners in almost any standard league even if he lacks sufficient run support to win many games.

444
Joe Kennedy, COL: 2-0 on a 13:2 K:BB in 19.0 IP over 3 GS with 16 H, 3 HR, a 1.38 G-F, and a 2.84 ERA. Despite an increasing ground-fly rate and an intriguing skill history that suggests he could continue succeeding in Coors, you simply can't consider Kennedy for your team. If you already own him, check your league's draft history to see which owners gamble on Rockies' starters, and then attempt to move him to one of those owners immediately. A low walk rate is not enough to insure acceptable qualitative marks for a Colorado starter, so even though Kennedy's performance thus far leads me to conclude he could help a significant numbers of owners, his terrible 2003 and obvious downside keep me from recommending him right now.

444
Brad Penny, FLO: 1-1 on a 22:7 K:BB in 20.2 IP over 3 GS with 11 H, 3 HR, a 1.24 G-F, and a 2.18 ERA. Unless arm problems again limit his innings, Penny appears prepared to emerge as one of the National League's elite starters. With shockingly strong dominance, solid command, and impressive overall skills, Penny's effectiveness makes him an excellent player to own in any league. If the Marlins continue providing him with superb defense and consistent run support, he could challenge for the Cy Young. Anyone seeking to add a quality starter should attempt to add him now before his current owner refuses to consider moving Penny at all, an increasingly logical stance given his 2004 performance to date.

Tomorrow, like every Sunday during the season, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Thanks to the off-season exodus of elite starters to the American League, the unimpressive assortment of pitchers discussed above prevents me from offering a variety of good trade targets. Lidle and Penny probably rank as the strongest acquisitions given the perceived value of each pitcher with respect to their current skills, however don't overpay for either starter since I expect to see several sleepers emerge over the next few weeks.