Today's Fantasy Rx

After reviewing relievers last week, I'll look at the most dominant starters thus far in 2004 this weekend. Once again, please remember that the fairly limited sample size of statistics generated thus far in 2004 renders the following comments far more useful as general guidelines rather than specific recommendations.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Six AL starters have started four games, dominated in three of those starts, and pitched solidly in the other outing. We've included the 2004 QA scores for each of these pitchers.

4553
Mark Mulder, OAK: 2-1 on a 19:8 K:BB in 27.0 IP over 4 GS with 21 H, 1 HR, a 2.35 G-F, and a 2.33 ERA. Although neither his strikeout nor walk rates appear particularly impressive, Mulder's overall skills remain as impressive as any pitcher in baseball. He looked like the probable Cy Young last season before hitting the DL last August. I view Mulder as the best left-hander in the game, and only persistent health questions keep me from recommending him on the same level as right-handers like Halladay and Vazquez. If you have the chance to grab Mulder, take advantage of that opportunity since he already ranks as a top contender for the best AL pitcher this season. All his skills are above average for the fourth straight season, making Mulder the safest pitcher to add to your team in any league as long as you don't mind the risk of further injury.

5534
Kevin Brown, NYY: 3-0 on an 18:4 K:BB in 27.0 IP over 4 GS with 25 H, 1 HR, a 2.00 G-F, and a 2.33 ERA. I know Brown opposed the Devil Rays in each of his first three starts, however he pitched solidly against Boston and isn't suffering significantly despite losing the excellent defensive support he enjoyed in Los Angeles. While we can't expect great strikeout numbers from Brown given he turned 39 last month and needs to maximize his pitch efficiency to keep his pitch counts low, his otherwise excellent skill set indicates he still belongs in any discussion of the best fantasy starters irrespective of health concerns. Brown should approach 20 wins if the Yankees' offense performs as everyone expects, so if you need a nearly guaranteed source of wins along with superb qualitative marks, talk up Brown's injury history in your league and then hopefully deal for him at a discount.

5344
Victor Zambrano, TB: 3-1 on a 20:15 K:BB in 24.2 IP over 4 GS with 21 H, 3 HR, a 34-25 G-F, and a 4.01 ERA. The problem with Zambrano is that his persistently poor walk rates inflate his WHIP, create potentially irritating ERA problems, and increase his pitch counts, leading him to depart games earlier than preferred. He owns obvious dominance and doesn't suffer from a significant homer problem. Tampa's solid defense also will keep his qualitative marks low. Unfortunately, I just can't recommend someone like Zambrano in standard leagues since I see no evidence of him overcoming his control problems. Only try to grab him in leagues that prioritize quantitative accomplishment over actual effectiveness.

5443
Curt Schilling, BOS: 2-1 on a 31:6 K:BB in 28.0 IP over 4 GS with 31 H, 3 HR, a 1.23 G-F, and a 4.18 ERA. Schilling's strikeout rate gives him tremendous value in 5x5 leagues. Given his similarly outstanding WHIP, a statistic supported by his recent history of success, only Boston's defense stands between Schilling and the sub-3.25 ERA that will guarantee him significant Cy Young consideration. Targeting him now is a bad idea after his great start, however if Schilling's ERA stays over 4.00 for another few starts while his skills otherwise remain solid, he should be a good pick-up in early May.

3444
Tim Hudson, OAK: 3-0 on a 16:4 K:BB in 29.1 IP over 4 GS with 24 H, 1 HR, a 2.55 G-F, and a 2.15 ERA. The only problem with Hudson's skills is that his strikeout rate continues to drop. Yet, given his other extremely impressive skill ratios, perhaps we should begin comparing Hudson to Greg Maddux, whose 6.3 career strikeout rate matches up nicely with Hudson's performance over the last few seasons. I know Hudson's current 4.9 K/9 is questionable, but I expect that number will approach a 6.0 K/9 by the end of the year. Hudson plays in front of a solid defense and disciplined offense, and his consistent health makes him a generally safer choice than teammate Mark Mulder. Of course, Hudson lacks Mulder's dominant upside, but he also hasn't posted an ERA worse than 4.14 in five seasons and may be the best lock for 15+ wins in the game. If Oakland continues their prodigious offensive output all year, Hudson should coast past 20 wins and at least approach a $30 value.

4443
Mike Maroth, DET: 2-1 on a 16:5 K:BB in 25.2 IP over 4 GS with 31 H, 2 HR, a 1.96 G-F, and a 3.86 ERA. After his atrocious 2003 performance, Maroth's start to this year is a key reason for the Tigers' early success. Of course, he hasn't completely dominated in any of his four appearances, doesn't look like a good candidate to amass more than a dozen wins, and isn't a particularly safe pick. Yet Maroth always has possessed impressive control, so if Detroit's defense performs acceptably, his WHIP alone could allow him to approach double-digit value. Since the Tigers spend the next month playing AL West teams exclusively, I just don't see much upside to targeting him right now, but if his qualitative stats slowly increase while his skills remain roughly consistent, he should be a nicely underrated trade target by mid-May.

We'll continue tomorrow with a look at dominant NL starters this year.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you need qualitative help or even just a boost in wins, the best targets from nearly every perspective are A's starters Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. The former may be the safest pickup in the league right now, while the latter pitcher perhaps possesses as much dominant upside as any pitcher in baseball. Although we rarely recommend buying high on someone, I simply see little reason any team shouldn't seek to add one of these stud starters since the four-category boost might make them as valuable as almost any position player.