Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Steve Finley, OF
8/48 for .167/.250/.250 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 9 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 6:3 BB:K.

Despite turning 39 last month, I see no obvious signs of decay in Finley's skills. His 3.67 #P/PA and .86 G-F appear in line with his previous marks, and both his walk and contact rates are superb. At least he took advantage of an early trip to Coors to boost his stats slightly, so hopefully his all-around solid skill set will enable Finley's overall numbers to begin improving soon. Since I still see significant fantasy upside here, look to acquire Finley in all leagues.

Atlanta: Mark DeRosa, 3B/SS/2B
9/43 for .209/.346/.256 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 6 R, 1/2 SB%,
and an 8:11 B B:K.

With a .74 contact rate limiting his BA, DeRosa isn't helping any fantasy team right now. Yet the Braves possess no obvious alternative barring the unlikely promotion of Russ Branyan and appear satisfied with DeRosa's performance on defense. Of course, his 4.25 #P/PA demonstrates definite improvement in his command of the strike zone. An acceptable 1.50 G-F also suggests we should see more power soon. I still don't expect DeRosa to post fantastic numbers and his upside remains limited, however target him now in any league where you need infield help.

Chicago Cubs: Alex S. Gonzalez, SS
11/45 for .244/.277/.356 with 1 HR, 1 RBI, 8 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 2:8 BB:K.

I certainly don't expect Gonzalez to return to Chicago next season since his normally respectable defense no longer will obscure his consistently awful offensive performance. The problem here is that a 3.51 #P/PA and 1.73 G-F combine to suggest less power potential for him in 2004 than in any of the last few seasons. As soon as he registers a couple of decent games, shop him actively in the hope of converting his moderately decent power into someone with at least more upside, if not better overall production.

Cincinnati: Barry Larkin, SS
6/36 for .167/.231/.194 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 5 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 3:5 BB:K.

While Cincinnati possesses a couple of intriguing young alternative to Larkin in Rainer Olmedo and Felipe Lopez, he should continue starting as long as he remains with the Reds. Unfortunately, both his 3.69 #P/PA and a 2.00 G-F indicate skill erosion, and considering he turns 40 in a week, we can't expect a significant rebound. Yet Larkin remains an obvious future Hall of Famer who still retains respectable plate discipline, so although you should shop him in an attempt to find a younger shortstop, you don't need to cut him since his averages should improve.

Colorado: Rene Reyes, OF
4/24 for .167/.310/.208 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:11 BB:K.

With All-Star starting outfielders Larry Walker and now Preston Wilson out indefinitely, we expect Reyes to see nearly full-time action as the only true centerfielder on the roster. Instead Jeromy Burnitz is playing center while Kit Pellow, Mark Sweeney, and Matt Holliday see most of the time in the outfield corners. I don't begrudge Pellow the opportunity, particularly since he qualifies at catcher in most leagues, but Reyes merits the last lineup spot in center. Both his 4.03 #P/PA and 1.00 G-F indicate continued skill development from last season, and the 26-year-old easily could enjoy a breakout year. Of course, since he isn't producing great numbers even when he plays, Reyes doesn't look like a good fantasy option right now. Wait if you already own him, but unless you see him available as a free agent at no cost, he isn't worth adding to your roster unless you desperately need outfielders with some short-term potential.

Florida: Alex Gonzalez, SS
6/38 for .158/.200/.211 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:7 BB:K.

The two-year deal he signed in September seems worse every day as Wilson Valdez and Kevin Hooper look increasingly better at AAA Albuquerque. A 3.43 #P/PA is bad even for the historically impatient Gonzalez, and without some modicum of plate discipline, his .67 G-F isn't too useful. Of course, despite his strong start last season, Gonzalez still should rebound to post a couple bucks of value, so while you should shop him for someone with more upside before his post-2003 value completely disappears, Gonzalez also isn't a terrible option at starting shortstop in NL leagues.

Houston: Morgan Ensberg, 3B
6/33 for .182/.317/.242 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 7:3 BB:K.

A nearly powerless spring performance by Ensberg led Jimy Williams to flip Adam Everett into the #2 hole, a decision that's paying early dividends thanks to Everett's shockingly strong opening. Houston's acquisition of Mike Lamb also gives Williams another reason to sit Ensberg, however Ensberg continues to play nearly every day. His excellent plate discipline suggests both his batting average and power will head upward despite unimpressive marks of a 3.46 #P/PA and 1.50 G-F. As he still should approach $20 if he remains in the lineup, wait on Ensberg since his pending improvement and strong second half in 2003 makes him a bad player to shop right now.

Los Angeles: Alex Cora, 2B
6/33 for .182/.250/.333 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:6 BB:K.

With his 3.76 #P/PA and a 1.56 G-F in line with his previous marks, Cora shows no obvious ill effects from the broken right arm he suffered in the Puerto Rican Winter League. He missed much of spring training yet the Dodgers wisely decided to maintain their impressive infield defense rather than look for marginal offensive improvement from someone like Joe Thurston. The former prospect's struggles at AAA Las Vegas, coupled with the slow start of Antonio Perez at the same affiliate, leave Cora the undisputed starter until Los Angeles acquires a superior option at either middle infield position. Don't expect Cora to continue playing every day in 2005, and he also could lose his job at any time, however if you already own him, wait for Cora's batting average to reach an acceptable level before looking to move him since he offers more upside than most reserve infielders.

Milwaukee: Ben Grieve, OF
8/34 for .235/.297/.382 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 3:4 BB:K.

The 1997 AL Rookie of the Year entered this season healthy and holding an undisputed starting outfield job in Milwaukee. Unfortunately, the scalding hot starts by Keith Ginter and Brady Clark should cause Grieve to lose an increasing number of at-bats unless his production improves soon. The good news is that a career-best 4.16 #P/PA demonstrates he still owns excellent plate discipline, and since a 1.89 G-F is his best mark since 2000, we should see his power output improve. While I view him as a risky player given his weak performance over the last few seasons, Grieve also is a good player to acquire since he could emerge as a solid fantasy option very quickly.

Montreal: Jose Vidro, 2B
12/45 for .267/.370/.378 with 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%,
and an 8:6 BB:K.

I know every Expo is underachieving by a significant amount and Vidro remains the best hitter on the team both in terms of skill and current production. However, his fantasy value also could increase more than perhaps any of his teammates. Aside from a very solid OBP, none of his other stats appears more than acceptable at best, but he still owns a career-best 3.91 #P/PA and a 1.58 G-F, his best mark in three seasons. Vidro's 8:6 BB:K in 45 AB also suggests his batting average should continue heading towards .300, and given his new role as most prominent offensive player in Montreal's lineup, he also should approach 100 RBI. Try to acquire Vidro now before his trade cost heads upward alongside his value.

New York Mets: Jason Phillips, 1B/C
7/40 for .175/.298/.275 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 7:4 BB:K.

With eight starts at first base and four games at catcher, Phillips' role remains undefined, a situation not aided by the Mets' multiple injuries or his weak production at both positions. Of course, Phillips still owns a 3.66 #P/PA and a career-best .79 G-F, skills that reinforce his solid 7:4 BB:K. Even if New York doesn't stabilize the roles of Piazza and Phillips soon, the youngster's averages should steadily improve, and we might even see surprising power from him. Now looks like a great time to acquire Phillips.

Philadelphia: Jimmy Rollins, SS
5/36 for .139/.238/.250 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:7 BB:K.

The Phillies appear determined to remain competitive despite the presence of Larry Bowa, but only the lack of a viable alternative at shortstop keeps me believing that Rollins will return to his former level of production. He hasn't impressed in either the #1 or #7 holes, and a career-worst 3.38 #P/PA depicts a player with declining plat discipline. Perhaps Rollins' career-best .75 G-F should suggest a pending power surge, but I instead see someone who either won't take advantage of his speed or no longer possesses great speed skills. Since I still expect Rollins will compile respectable stats, you probably should just wait if you own him, however feel free to take advantage of any opportunity to improve your lot at shortstop.

Pittsburgh: Tike Redman, OF
13/53 for .245/.250/.321 with 0 HR, 5 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 1:9 BB:K.

I expected Redman would struggle at times before potentially losing his job by the second half of this season, however I also hoped he'd compile a couple dozen steals before his playing time disappeared. Now the pending return of Jason Bay will push someone to the bench, and if Bay appears capable of playing center field, I see no reason Redman shouldn't sit. His poor production, a career-worst 3.48 #P/PA, and an uncomfortably elevated 2.23 G-F suggest Redman might not possess the offensive needed to take advantage of his plus speed. Despite the likelihood of his value improving in the near future, look to deal him soon if you can find a way to exchange Redman for someone with comparable pre-season value.

San Diego: Ramon Hernandez, C
6/42 for .214/.313/.310 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, 2 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:1 BB:K.

A 1.27 G-F indicates a slight decrease in Hernandez's power potential, but given his other skills right now, Oakland erred in dealing him. His 4.13 #P/PA, coupled with his extraordinary eye this season, suggests the potential for a .300 season. Although I realize this small sample size creates unreasonable expectations, his fantasy upside still seems ridiculously far above his current value. Talk up the likely pitchers' haven of Petco Park in your league and then acquire Hernandez at the first possible opportunity.

San Francisco: Edgardo Alfonzo, 3B
7/43 for .163/.234/.209 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:2 BB:K.

Despite the excellent power potential suggested by the combination of Alfonzo's .95 contact rate and a .85 G-F, he simply isn't producing at an acceptable level and easily could begin losing playing time to Pedro Feliz. Of course, Alfonzo's significant contract should insure regular at-bats, but I wouldn't feel too comfortable if we owned him anywhere right now. Since signing with San Francisco, his 3.49 #P/PA indicates a player that somehow forgot a decade of solid plate discipline for no apparent reason, particularly since batting near Barry Bonds should reinforce those lessons repeatedly. Hope that the last thirteen months are a fluke and wait with the expectation that at least Alfonzo's average should head toward .275 by the end of the season.

St. Louis: Edgar Renteria, SS
13/43 for .302/.377/.465 with 1 HR, 5 RBI, 8 R, 2/2 SB%,
and a 7:4 BB:K.

Placing Renteria here makes little overt sense, but he somehow owns the worst OPS in a starting lineup that often includes Tony Womack's .360/.431/.520, Mike Matheny's .333/.354/.533, Marlon Anderson's .308/.357/.654, and Ray Lankford's .409/.500/.864. With Rolen, Pujols, and Sanders all average a homer every other game and Jim Edmonds' OPS barely under 1.000, Renteria's production just doesn't seem that impressive. Take advantage of this perceived lower value to acquire him as soon as possible. Not only does his .88 G-F suggest a potential power surge, Renteria's 3.62 #P/PA is his best mark since 2000. The 28-year-old appears fully capable on improving on his career year in 2003, so at least make an attempt to add the best shortstop in the league before his price skyrockets as he begins accumulating more quantitative stats.

We'll continue tomorrow with American League underachieving pitchers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I see several players worth adding to your team at a likely reduced price. Steve Finley, Ben Grieve, Jose Vidro, Jason Phillips, Ramon Hernandez, and Edgar Renteria all started slowly to various degrees, and adding even one of the players now at a potential discount gives you a welcome competitive advantage early in the season.