Today's Fantasy Rx

In past seasons I provided a recommendation at the end of each player comment, usually either acquire, deal, or wait. After considering this system over the winter, I'm no longer comfortable with the limited terminology, so I'm expanding my list of recommendations to five potential courses of action:

Acquire: You should immediate look to trade for the player since his value should rise in the immediate future.

Target: Explore potential trades for the player, but don't rush into any deal since while the player could increase in value soon, he isn't a sure bet for success.

Wait: Since the player's market value isn't likely to change substantially soon, take no action regardless of whether you own the player or not.

Shop: If you find a good match for your player, make a trade now, however don't undersell him since his value isn't likely to plummet in the near future.

Deal: The likelihood of the player's value dropping soon means you should take the best offer for him you can find before your next transaction deadline.

We expect that this revised system will provide you with better actionable advice when evaluating your teams and players.

Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes the following data: H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.

Anaheim: Tim Salmon, DH/OF
9/48 for .188/.245/.313 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 3:6 BB:K.

The 35-year-old Salmon is barely relevant in the Angels' offense this season thanks to the signing of Vladimir Guerrero and the continued development of Garret Anderson and Troy Glaus. Yet remaining at DH for the majority of his games should keep Salmon healthy, so I expect his numbers will improve once he grows accustomed to his new role on a full-time basis. A career-worst 3.57 #P/PA worries me slightly, but a .50 G-F and .58 contact rate still indicate significant power potential. Target Salmon if you need an outfielder likely to contribute no less than 20 homers and a .275 BA over the balance of the season.

Baltimore: Luis Matos, OF
8/40 for .200/.319/.225 with 0 HR, 5 RBI, 6 R, 4/5 SB%,
and a 5:9 BB:K.

Yes, the four steals so far are very promising, particularly since new Orioles' manager Lee Mazzilli should keep his players more active on the bases than predecessor Mike Hargrove. Matos' 3.98 #P/PA also demonstrates a good approach at the plate. Although a 1.70 G-F is slightly worrisome in light of his problems towards the end of 2003, Matos should see his BA quickly rise given his overall skill level right now. See if you can acquire him before his trade cost similarly rises.

Boston: Gabe Kapler, OF
8/33 for .242/.242/.242 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 0:6 BB:K.

Handed the majority of right field starts with Trot Nixon sidelined indefinitely, Kapler responded to his first set starting job in a couple seasons by posting a -.030 secondary average over his first dozen games. Since the Red Sox may value SEC, calculated by subtracting H and CS from TB+BB+SB and then dividing by AB, more than any franchise in the game, Kapler's starting window already is closing. His 3.48 #P/PA and 2.29 G-F also are terrible marks for any player, not to mention a corner outfielder with mediocre speed. If Nixon remains out after Nomar returns, expect Mark Bellhorn to see time at DH while Kevin Millar and David Ortiz respectively cover RF and 1B since Kapler simply isn't producing. I still expect him to rebound to contribute a few bucks of value by season's end, but at least shop Kapler while his current role as a presumed starter artificially compensates for his weaker skills.

Chicago White Sox: Joe Crede, 3B
7/42 for .167/.239/.262 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 3:8 BB:K.

He only managed a .233/.261/.314 last April before gradually increasing his performance to a .352/.392/.659 August peak. The good news is that Crede's .61 G-F suggests he could smack a couple homers at any time, but a 3.30 #P/PA suggests the 25-year-old isn't truly developing as a batter. Target Crede since his value should head upward over the next several months, yet certainly don't overpay since nothing here suggests a pending breakout.

Cleveland: Alex Escobar, OF
7/35 for .200/.263/.229 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 3:9 BB:K.

The Indians' sudden subtraction of Milton Bradley from their outfield rotation gifted Escobar with a virtual starting job. Unfortunately, rather than take advantage of this opportunity, Escobar is performing far worse than Coco Crisp by not demonstrating the right-handed power Cleveland needs. Neither his 3.61 #P/PA nor a 1.86 G-F are promising marks, leaving me with little faith that he'll prove his credentials before Grady Sizemore and Franklin Gutierrez reach the majors. Shop Escobar in keeper leagues since some owners still might believe in his future value, and strongly consider any available offer in-single-season leagues since his skills don't suggest much immediate upside.

Detroit: Craig Monroe, OF
8/35 for .229/.300/.314 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:10 BB:K.

Perhaps Monroe's slow start is due to his unexpected promotion into the starting lineup following Dmitri Young's injury. However, his on-base percentage is superior to his 2003 mark and a 4.40 #P/PA indicates continuing offensive development. I see a lot to like here, particularly for owners who don't object to the .240 BA Monroe posted last season if he can add another 20 homers and 70 or more RBI. Target Monroe anywhere you need a fourth or fifth outfielder with power since he easily could remain a regular after Young's return and should contribute respectable numbers even if he heads back to the bench.

Kansas City: Angel Berroa, SS
8/37 for .216/.256/.324 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:5 BB:K.

While almost everyone expected Berroa to suffer some version of a sophomore slump, the 25-year-old's current condition is far more troubling. Kansas City placed him on the DL this weekend with unexplained migraine headaches, so even though he could return in two weeks, consider him out indefinitely until we know more. If you own him in keeper leagues, shop Berroa now to anyone willing to give you fair value for a $20 shortstop and reigning Rookie of the Year, however also recognize that he might be lucky to reach double-digit value this year. Selling at least a little low is not a terrible option if you didn't take advantage of his award-inflated value this winter.

Minnesota: Cristian Guzman, SS
11/47 for .234/.250/.340 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 1:4 BB:K.

With no speed, power, batting average, or patience, Guzman likely is killing many fantasy owners besides me right now. I also don't envision any quick improvement given his career-worst 3.00 #P/PA and a poor 2.40 G-F. Unless you can find someone willing to exchange an equally problematic player for this production-challenged shortstop, wait before making any move since he should start stealing bases soon, thereby finally contributing positively to your team.

New York Yankees: Alex Rodriguez, 3B/SS
7/45 for .156/.269/.289 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 6 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 6:10 BB:K.

I see no reason not to blame this slow start on some combination of the Japan trip and adjusting to playing in New York, and a career-worst 3.62 #P/PA indicates an unsurprising impatience with his poor production. Of course, he owns an excellent .80 G-F, so he still possesses plenty of power and should see his average start to rise soon. The problem is that the Yankees' schedule doesn't present him with any break until the end of May. New York faces Oakland twice, Anaheim twice, and Seattle twice, not to mention series against the Royals, White Sox, and Red Sox. We might not see ARod approach the .300/.400/.600 everyone expects until near the All-Star break. You probably at least should shop him, however unless you receive an offer roughly commensurate with his level of production over the last three years, I also don't see significant upside to moving Rodriguez since he certainly could break out at any time.

Oakland: Erubiel Durazo, DH/1B
8/30 for .267/.389/.300 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 7 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 3:10 BB:K.

Any team truly committed to sabermetric principles would have given Graham Koonce a starting job at DH while letting Scott Hatteberg and Durazo fight for playing time at first base until Dan Johnson proves his skill at AAA Sacramento. Instead Hatteberg's long-term deal and Durazo's salary, not to mention the presence of the newly signed Eric Karros, will keep the likely more productive rookies buried in the minors indefinitely despite the terrible production from the 1B/DH options in Oakland. Yet, while Durazo's complete lack of power is a problem for a #5 hitter, his OBP and runs scored are solid. The problem is that relatively few leagues include those categories and neither his 3.61 #P/PA nor a 3.00 G-F suggest we'll see his quantitative contribution improve soon. Shop Durazo since I wouldn't be surprised if Koonce and/or Johnson force a change in Oakland by the All-Star break, and while Durazo still should start somewhere, I don't have much faith in his fantasy potential right now.

Seattle: John Olerud, 1B
8/40 for .200/.304/.275 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:7 BB:K.

While I believe the career of the 35-year-old is definitely winding down, I also think Olerud might remain relatively useful for another couple seasons. Excellent marks of a 4.38 #P/PA and 1.08 G-F indicate an extreme likelihood of rapidly increasing production, particularly now that Seattle won't face Anaheim again until July. Although his age makes him a riskier option than many other players, take advantage of any perceived problem here to acquire Olerud now before his value shoots upward. You can't expect more than around a .275 BA and double-digit homers, but I suspect he could cost very little in some leagues.

Tampa Bay: Rocco Baldelli, OF
8/41 for .195/.298/.195 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 4 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 5:8 BB:K.

Right now Baldelli appears to suffer from a combination of a sophomore slump and extended jet lag from the Japan trip. At least his 3.45 #P/PA and 1.31 G-F are right in line with the marks I expect to see from him, and while the 22-year-old won't emerge as a star for a few more years, expect his stats to improve soon. Only target him in leagues with a particularly sabermetric focus where his value never reached overly lofty levels.

Texas: Kevin Mench, OF
14/54 for .259/.268/.407 with 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 1:10 BB:K.

The promising patience displayed by Mench last season appears gone, and a 3.46 #P/PA suggests a poor overall approach at the plate. Fortunately for his owners, his .52 G-F is very nicely suited for the Rangers' park, so he should continue to start this season and produce promising quantitative stats in addition to an acceptable batting average. His injury problems probably prevented a breakout season, but Mench still should reach double-digit value, making him someone to target in most leagues.

Toronto: Greg Myers, C
2/11 for .182/.182/.273 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:3 BB:K.

With Kevin Cash, Carlos Delgado, and Josh Phelps respectively established at catcher, first base, and designated hitter, Myers should not receive the chance to prove his career 2003 season wasn't a fluke. The 38-year-old isn't even likely to post positive draft value given the sporadic playing time he'll see. Guillermo Quiroz's pending promotion even might force Myers into retirement. Explore every possibility for a deal in the hope that someone in your league pays more attention to Myers' previous performance than his current struggles.

We'll continue tomorrow with National League underachieving batters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Two left-hander hitters rapidly approaching their 40th birthdays warrant the most immediate attention here. John Olerud's skills remain strong and he should easily reach double-digit value, making him an excellent player to add in AL leagues. Conversely, only an injury will provide Greg Myers with the consistent playing time he apparently requires to produce respectable numbers. Take advantage of any opportunity to swap him even if you only receive another backup like Adam Melhuse, Kelly Stinnett, or Brook Fordyce in return.