Today's Fantasy Rx

Due to the later start to the season, we're beginning this year's LPR articles with one less week of data than in the past. Also, since just 12 pitchers have started 3 games, I only will review relievers this week. Please remember that the extremely limited sample size of statistics generated thus far in 2004 renders the following comments far more useful as general guidelines rather than specific recommendations.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

We've included the five most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

5 DOM, 0 DUL/DIS
LaTroy Hawkins, CHC(55444): 0-0 and 0 Saves on a 7:0 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 5 G with 1 H, 0 HR, a 5-4 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Given his outstanding performance over the last two years, Hawkins likely ranks as the safest non-closing reliever to own in the game. He walks almost on one, allows few flyballs, and should continue recording around a strikeout an inning. Although we believe the Cubs should keep in relief while allowing the less dominant Joe Borowski to continue closing, Hawkins should cruise past $10 in every league even if he doesn't register a single save. Of course, if Hawkins begins closing, he'll rank with any reliever in the game. When Hawkins first started closing in 2000, he set a major league record of 23 straight saves prior to blowing his first chance. His struggles throughout 2001 eventually resulted in Eddie Guardado inheriting the job, but thanks to Hawkins' significantly improved skill set, he should thrive in any bullpen role. Take advantage of any opportunity to acquire him.

4 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS
Chris Reitsma, ATL(345534): 0-0 and 0 Saves on a 6:0 K:BB in 6.1 IP over 6 G with 7 H, 0 HR, a 12-5 G-F, and a 1.42 ERA. With his ground-fly ratio continuing to improve and the increased support he should receive from Atlanta's defense, Reitsma appears set for a career year. He already demonstrated his proficiency as a reliever by compiling a 3.89 ERA on a 25:8 K:BB in 34.2 IP over 31 G with 38 H and 5 HR over the second half of 2003. Now he ranks as the unquestioned alternative to John Smoltz for any Atlanta saves. Given the likelihood of Smoltz spending at least some time on the disabled list, Reitsma should save at least six games this season. These skills also indicate significant fantasy upside in any role, making Reitsma an excellent target in any league.

Dan Miceli, HOU(444433): 0-0 and 0 Saves on a 4:0 K:BB in 7.0 IP over 6 G with 6 H, 0 HR, an 11-8, and a 1.29 ERA. Yes, Miceli is producing nice numbers again, and he appears mostly effective right now. Yet he isn't dominating hitters, plays home games in a poor pitchers' park, and appears behind at least Octavio Dotel and Brad Lidge in the competition for save opportunities. Since Miceli hasn't posted any perfect outings, he generally isn't a good option, however he also shouldn't hurt you if needed as roster filler in deeper leagues.

4 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Duaner Sanchez, LA(54434): 0-0 and 0 Saves on a 6:2 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 5 G with 2 H, 0 HR, a 5-4 G-F, and a 1.69 ERA. Sanchez isn't going to supplant Eric Gagne or Guillermo Mota in short relief for the Dodgers barring an unexpected trade, but he at least gives Los Angeles a quality replacement for Paul Quantrill. Of course, Sanchez's history of dominance gives him greater upside, especially with the Dodgers' defense supporting him. Although viewing him as more than excellent roster filler still seems like a mistake, you also shouldn't let Sanchez linger as a free agent in any NL league.

Kevin Gryboski, ATL(44434): 1-0 and 1 Save on a 2:2 K:BB in 5.0 IP over 5 G with 3 H, 0 HR, a 10-4 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Despite Gryboski's early quantitative contribution, I don't view him as a good fantasy option. He hasn't posted a single perfect outing and isn't striking out many batters. More importantly, he remains the same pitcher that owned a career 65:60 K:BB in 96 IP with 94 H and a 2.57 G-F prior to 2004. Perhaps he will continue posting respectable qualitative stats, however I see no reason to trust Gryboski on your team in any save the deepest of NL leagues.

4 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
Billy Wagner, PHI(5455): 0-0 and 3 Saves on a 7:0 K:BB in 4.0 IP over 4 G with 2 H, 0 HR, a 3-3 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Although Gagne remains the safer player to own, Wagner easily could post better numbers this season. The Phillies are a stronger team than the Dodgers in almost every respect, and Wagner appears as dominant as anyone in the game right now. If you need a closer, go try to acquire Wagner now since I only expect his price to go up as Philadelphia starts winning more games.

4 DOM, 0 DUL, 1 DIS
Eric Gagne, LA(44541): 1-0 and 3 Saves on a 4:1 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 5 G with 3 H, 1 HR, a 6-7 G-F, and a 3.38 ERA. I suppose we can forgive him giving up a homer to Bonds yesterday since he still saved the game, but considering his cost in most leagues, he looks overrated right now, especially compared to someone like Wagner. Don't target Gagne unless you somehow can acquire him at a discount.

4 DOM, 0 DUL, 2 DIS
Matt Herges(522444): 0-1 and 5 Saves on a 5:3 K:BB in 7.0 IP over 6 G with 9 H, 0 HR, a 13-7 G-F, and a 3.86 ERA. Although he isn't dominating anyone, Herges' overall performance is very solid right now. Even if Nen returned this weekend, I don't know if Felipe Alou would switch closers immediately, so you should consider Herges a $25 closer until further notice. He seems quite secure in his role and should continue contributing at least a save a week with respectable qualitative stats.

Tomorrow, like every Sunday during the season, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Mark Teixeira headed to the DL yesterday with a strained oblique, and rather than slide Brad Fullmer to 1B, Texas promoted top 1B prospect Adrian Gonzalez. He only managed a .138/.242/.138 in 29 AB with 0 HR, 4 RBI, 2 R, 0/0 SB%, and a 4:5 BB:K for AAA Oklahoma(PCL), yet don't be surprised if he never returns to the minors despite his lack of upper-level production. Although Gonzalez smacked just five homers in 451 at-bats last year, he owns good plate discipline and could thrive in Arlington. Expect some initial struggles, but if Teixeira misses any significant length of time, Gonzalez will stay in Texas indefinitely given the Rangers' increasing focus on defense. He merits at least a small FAAB bid in any league and even bidding $10-15 isn't a terrible idea in keeper leagues.