Today's Fantasy Rx

Due to the later start to the season, we're beginning this year's LPR articles with one less week of data than in the past. Also, since just 12 pitchers have started 3 games, I only will review relievers this week. Please remember that the extremely limited sample size of statistics generated thus far in 2004 renders the following comments far more useful as general guidelines rather than specific recommendations.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

We've included the five most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

5 DOM, 0 DUL/DIS
Francisco Rodriguez, ANA(45544): 0-0 and 0 Saves on an 8:2 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 5 G with 4 H, 0 HR, a 5-3 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Despite his fantastic debut during September and October of 2002, KRod flew under the roto radar last year thanks to the Angels' struggles and the emergence of Brendan Donnelly as perhaps the best reliever in the American League. While Donnelly's current injury upsets Anaheim's bullpen dynamic, his likely lengthy absence creates a significant opportunity for Rodriguez to emerge as the unquestioned heir to Percival. With the veteran closer's contract expiring and significant resources already allocated to Vlad, Anderson, Erstad, Kennedy, Guillen, and the starting rotation, not to mention Troy Glaus' pending free agency, opting for a cheaper option in the endgame makes sense here.

Of course, even if Rodriguez remains as a set-up man for another couple years, he regularly should approach or exceed double-digit value. Percival should miss at least some time each year due to his age and injury history. Fortunately, Rodriguez's skills are superb right now. Five dominant outings this season and a newly defined role, in addition to a 49:15 K:BB in 38 IP after the All-Star break last year, makes Rodriguez one of the best targets in any fantasy league. Only a healthy Percival stands between KRod and a nearly automatic $30 return on what currently could be a minimal investment.

J.C. Romero, MIN(54544): 0-0 and 0 Saves on a 7:3 K:BB in 5.0 IP over 5 G with 1 H, 0 HR, a 5-3 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. While Joe Nathan started slowly this season, he now seems surprisingly secure as the Twins' closer. Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, and even Grant Balfour also appear in line for saves in Minnesota before Romero. Yet Romero only needs improved control to regain the double-digit value he posted in 2002. His current role gives him little upside, but he remains a dominant reliever and currently looks like a solid option in any league.

4 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Arthur Rhodes, OAK(55435): 0-0 and 4 Saves on a 4:1 K:BB in 5.0 IP over 5 G with 6 H, 0 HR, a 9-7 G-F, and a 3.60 ERA. I hope you ignored most of the comments this spring regarding Rhodes' inability to close. The entire argument appears based on his 39% Save success rate over thirteen over a decade in relief work. Of course, save percentage ranks with winning percentage in terms of useless statistics. If you believe that closers possess some special skill that accounts for their save totals, ridiculing relievers on the basis of saves blown in situations other than the normal ninth inning pitched by most closers makes no sense. Rhodes owns outstanding skills and consistently ranks among the most effective relievers in the game, making this move to a full-time closing job a natural if mildly wasteful transition. Consider him only slightly behind Mariano Rivera and Keith Foulke in any discussion of the best AL closers for any standard league.

4 DOM, 1 DUL, 1 DIS
Juan Rincon, MIN(440345): 1-0 and 1 Save on a 4:4 K:BB in 5.0 IP over 6 G with 2 H, 0 HR, a, 8-3 G-F, and a 3.60 ERA. His 0 outing against Detroit accounts for two walks and the only two earned runs allowed by Rincon this season. Given his otherwise solid skills and an intriguingly solid ground-fly ratio, he looks like a fairly good investment in AL leagues, particularly for owners who want Nathan insurance. Rincon also ranks as one of the safer free agents likely available in most leagues, making him a good candidate for early week FAABing as roster filler. He shouldn't hurt you and could approach double-digit value with a little luck.

4 DOM, 0 DUL, 1 DIS
Mariano Rivera, NYY(52454): 0-0 and 3 Saves on a 5:2 K:BB in 5.0 IP over 5 G with 5 H, 0 HR, a 9-2 G-F, and a 1.80 ERA. Although I don't expect him to lead the league in saves, he easily could reclaim the title of most valuable AL reliever from Keith Foulke this year. Rivera seems set to pass $30 without much effort and could approach Gagne-like numbers depending on how his teammates perform. His performance thus far merely reinforces our belief in his continually solid skills, making him someone you want on your team in as many leagues as possible.

Rafael Betancourt, CLE(45504): 0-1 on a 6:0 K:BB in 5.2 IP over 5 G with 6 H, 0 HR, a 6-8 G-F, and a 1.59 ERA. His .37 G-F last year still worries me, however as Betancourt didn't struggle with a poor homer rate at any point in the minors, his otherwise dominant performance identifies him as a target in every league. He now owns a career big league 42:13 K:BB in 43.2 IP with 33 H and 5 HR allowed. These skills rank with almost any reliever in the game. While I don't expect him to see save opportunities this season over Dave Riske, Jose Jimenez, Scott Stewart, or Bob Wickman, Betancourt certainly could succeed as a closer if necessary. However, please only view his save upside as a potentially bonus on top of his likely double-digit value as one of the best set-up men in the majors.

We'll continue tomorrow with the first in-season NL LPR article of the year.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Tonight's primetime match-up of the Yankees at the Red Sox should be a great contest even if the rainouts this week bumped Schilling to tomorrow. Fox also will debut a couple of new "features" on the broadcast, so try to catch at least a couple innings of the 7PM(CDT) game.