Today's Fantasy Rx

With barely more than a week of the season elapsed, the convoluted standings nicely contrast last year's final results. Intriguing stories in each division make this perhaps the most exciting opening fortnight in many years.

American League East

Despite missing their starting shortstop, right fielder, and fifth starter while facing improved Baltimore and Toronto teams, Boston remains tied for first place. With Manny Ramirez, Mark Bellhorn, David Ortiz, Johnny Damon, and Jason Varitek all holding on-base percentages over .400 and Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke anchoring a solid veteran pitching staff, the Red Sox appear nicely positioned to weather their early injuries. Both Bellhorn and Varitek qualify as nice sleepers, particularly in leagues that don't tally batting average, since their skills suggest pending improvement.

Of course, the Yankees have kept pace with Boston, strongly rebounding from their Opening Day loss to Tampa in Japan. Kevin Brown looks even better than Schilling so far, and Mike Mussina's April struggles are a normal part of his annual routine. The lack of AAA depth and a slow-starting offense could leave this team behind the Red Sox, but once the hitters kick into gear, we should see everyone here save Enrique Wilson reach at least $20, if not $30 or $40.

Unfortunately, the rest of the division just doesn't seem too important right now. Toronto's failure to catapult to first against Detroit negated perhaps their best opportunity of the season for the Jays to distinguish themselves from Baltimore and Tampa. Don't look to acquire Orioles, Rays, or Jays to gain any scheduling advantage over your competitors since the repeated contests against the loaded lineups and pitching staffs of Boston and New York comparatively limit the upside of players on their fellow AL East teams.

American League Central

As reported by several other websites in recent days, Detroit's early dominance is virtually unprecedented considering their terrible 2004. Repeatedly demolishing a perfectly respectable team like Toronto makes their 6-2 record even more impressive. The early injuries to Cleveland and Minnesota could enable the Tigers to begin a month of games against the AL West with at least an 11-8 record. However, I certainly doubt Detroit will remain in first place much into May, so look to sell high on any sleeper Tigers in about a week.

Instead of beginning another season with a poor record, Chicago's right-handed sluggers took advantage of Kansas City's all-lefty rotation. The White Sox rebounded from a demoralizing Opening Day defeat to split the last two games of that series and a four-game set in New York. They also seem set to sweep the Royals at home now, putting themselves in a very strong position as other than a three-game homestand against the Yankees, Chicago spends the next month facing Tampa, Cleveland, Toronto, and Baltimore. Unlike Detroit, they never spend more than a couple weeks against teams from another division. Constantly returning to face AL Central opponents gives Chicago needed breaks from the tougher AL teams. If Kenny Williams manages to sign Magglio Ordonez to a long-term deal in the near future, Chicago could spend all season near first place.

The Royals and Twins share 4-4 records right now, and considering the pitching injuries on Kansas City and the offensive catastrophe in Minnesota, even holding .500 right now is an accomplishment for these teams. Cleveland also is falling subject to injury, yet the Indians admitted they wouldn't contend this year by dealing Milton Bradley now for a potential superstar. Of course, a sweep this weekend against Detroit should place everyone save the White Sox near .500. This division simply is a mess right now, making targeting anyone aside from Carlos Beltran and Chicago position players a mildly questionable proposition.

American League West

Prohibitive favorite Oakland opened 6-2, Anaheim owns a 6-3 record, Texas' offense keyed a 4-5 mark, and Seattle ranks dead last in the majors with an atrocious 1-7 start. The Mariners essentially need to sweep their next two series just to move above .500 for the first time this season. For a team expected to contend all year, Seattle's failures against the Athletics and Angels qualify as a very worrisome sign. At least slightly downgrade your expectations for most of the Mariners' pitchers as any significant injury on offense should insure they finish closer to a .500 record than the division lead. Spending the last week of April in Baltimore and Detroit should produce better results, but opening May with two weeks against Minnesota and New York will leave Mariners' management in an uncomfortable position by the quarter mark.

If the Rangers survive two Seattle series and a three-game set in Anaheim, not to mention a week against Kansas City and Boston, they could thrive in May. Texas spends the first two weeks of next month facing Tampa and Detroit, giving both their hitters and pitchers an excellent opportunity to accumulate impressive stats. Anaheim's schedule appears even better as they go right from their initial three weeks against AL West teams into facing Detroit, Minnesota, Detroit, and Tampa. Oakland doesn't face a comparable run until August, yet I don't expect the Athletics to fall far back of the pack any time soon. Targeting players on any AL West team aside from Seattle looks like a fairly good plan over the next week or two.

National League East

If the Tigers' great start is the primary story in the American League, the opposite records of the Marlins and Phillies ranks as the biggest NL surprise. Florida's 7-1 record and back-to-back shutouts of Montreal in Puerto Rico is amazingly impressive and suggests the Marlins shouldn't fade any time soon. A healthy Josh Beckett, Armando Benitez, and the developing young core of Miguel Cabrera, Hee Choi, and Ramon Castro combine to compensate for the departures of Mark Redman, Ugueth Urbina, Juan Encarnacion, Derrek Lee, and Ivan Rodriguez. I see no reason this squad won't contend all year as long as Penny, Pavano, and Willis build on their great starts.

The Phillies appear in direct competition with Arizona to see who can fire their underachieving manager first. I expect the disappointment of a bad start in combination with the opening of CB Park will lead to Bowa's dismissal by the end of the month unless they rebound this weekend against a reeling Montreal team. Philadelphia's roster remains the deepest and most talented in the league, so their poor performance thus far only creates an unexpected wealth of sleepers in most leagues.

Injuries appear ready to push New York and Montreal to the bottom of the division. The loss of Nick Johnson and Carl Everett creates a giant hole in the Expos' offense. Even the commitment demonstrated by the Livan Hernandez contract won't alleviate the problems caused by opening the season with a virtual 18-game road trip. We still expect impressive seasons from players like Jose Vidro, Orlando Cabrera, and Brad Wilkerson, but don't look to add them now if you didn't acquire them at your draft.

Atlanta qualifies as the sleeper team in the division thanks to the general uncertainty surrounding their roster. If the weather stops in Cincinnati, Florida, and San Francisco on the first three legs of their approaching two-week road trip, look to acquire a couple of Braves' hitters by their April 30th visit to Colorado.

National League Central

Even the AL Central doesn't appear as competitive as the NL Central right now. Injuries to Mark Prior and Andy Pettitte push the Cubs and Astros back near the Cardinals, and surprisingly strong starts by Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Pittsburgh suggest each team could compete with a little luck. None of these teams possess an obvious schedule advantage in the near future, so don't expect to see many stadium-induced statistical spikes here.

The one significant potential problem affects Pirates' players. Pittsburgh does not play back-to-back series in pitchers' parks until the first week of August. Given the poor skills displayed by almost every Pirates' pitcher, the only members of the Pittsburgh staff you want to own are Kip Wells and Jose Mesa. Attempt to deal Kris Benson, Ryan Vogelsong, and Oliver Perez soon while cutting any other reliever. Conversely, Craig Wilson, Jason Kendall, and Raul Mondesi in particularly look like great targets. Even Jack Wilson and Rob Mackowiak could be helpful over the next few months in standard leagues, presenting you with some intriguing opportunities in most leagues.

National League West

Given the age of their best players and multiple questionable roster decisions, Arizona's 2-6 start isn't a shock. Colorado also will fade quickly with Preston Wilson and Larry Walker sidelined. Aside from possibilities involving Rockies' bench players, looking to acquire most players on either team is questionable right now.

However, now the San Francisco is past Bonds' most recent milestone, San Diego at least has partially adjusted to Petco, and Los Angeles' roster appears somewhat settled, we should see spirited competition between the three NL California teams over the rest of the season. The return of Jason Schmidt should negate the slight schedule disadvantage of the Giants over the next month, making players on all three of these teams good targets, especially if you need an unowned middle reliever as short-term roster filler.

Internet Challenge

With fewer than two weeks elapsed on the season, we're burning two more moves since neither Preston Wilson nor Carl Everett should return from the DL within the next month. Scott Podsednik as an obvious pickup, however Octavio Dotel, Javy Lopez, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, and Richard Hidalgo all appear to be good second options. While the extra flexibility of another closer or catcher would help, we need a power-hitting outfielder. Hidalgo owns worst skills than Pujols or Manny, however he faces a very nice schedule over the next month and appears a much better economical fit for us than the more expensive players. He also looks like an excellent low-percentage play compared to the very popular Pujols and Manny.

SP(6)
Curt Schilling: Sat:NYY(M.Mussina)
Randy Johnson: Fri:@SD(J.Peavy)
Mike Mussina: Sat:@NYY(C.Schilling)
Tim Hudson: Fri:@ANA(B.Colon)
Javier Vazquez: Fri:@BOS(T.Wakefield)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:MIL(Do.Davis)
Kerry Wood: Sat:CIN(A.Harang)
Josh Beckett: Sat:@ATL(Ru.Ortiz)
Jose Contreras: Sun:@BOS(D.Lowe)
Shawn Chacon: 3 Road at STL.

No starts: Pedro, Halladay, and Brown.

Taking the home starts of Schilling, Oswalt, and Wood, as well as Chacon on the road, makes a lot of sense to us. Given Florida's hot streak, Beckett looks like a good play, and Randy seems like a safer play, particularly given his potential strikeout totals, than Hudson in Anaheim.

The questions surrounding Tex's health sends him to our bench, and Cintron will sit when we don't need him for cap reasons. We'll only run one of Ichiro, Crawford, and Pierre now that we own Podsednik, and Crawford looks like the best option right now as he faces the White Sox this weekend. While we similarly like Crede against Tampa, we don't see a logical lineup spot for him since we continue to believe in Wilkerson.

The Umpire Hunter(23rd lg; 759th overall)
Week 2b: April 16-April 18

C	Mike Piazza		990
C	Jason Varitek		680
1B	Brad Fullmer		700
1B	Josh Phelps		580
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1930
2B	Marcus Giles		990
3B	Eric Hinske		990
3B	Hank Blalock		850
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Kazuo Matsui		750
OF	Carlos Beltran		1760
OF	Vernon Wells		1150
OF	Carl Crawford		1040
OF	Scott Podsednik		980
OF	Adam Dunn		690
OF	Brad Wilkerson		690 
DH	Richard Hidalgo	970
DH	Miguel Cabrera		570

SP	Curt Schilling		1610
SP	Randy Johnson		1550 
SP	Roy Oswalt		1200
SP	Kerry Wood		1190
SP	Josh Beckett		990 
SP	Shawn Chacon		630
RP	Eric Gagne		1890
RP	David Riske		820
RP	Arthur Rhodes		800
RP	Matt Herges		670

Total Salary for Week 2b: 	29680

Today's Fantasy Rx: Only six players are owned by more than two-third of the teams in Internet Challenge. While we don't view Octavio Dotel as necessary, and neither Kerry Wood nor Josh Beckett are automatic selections, I expect essentially every successful team to own Hank Blalock, Marcus Giles, and Vernon Wells. Only an injury should ever prompt you to remove one of those three from your lineup.