Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to the 2004 NL Tout Wars rosters here.

Owner: John Murphy
Publication: Rotowire
$ Left: $0.
Split: $193H/$67P = 74/26.
Reserve roster: Jason Jennings, Chin-hui Tsao, Todd Linden, Mike Lamb, Nick Neugebauer, and Jeff Liefer.

Nice pick: Jose Acevedo, $3; after his superb spring training, Acevedo should cruise to double-digit value.
Top sleeper: Jason Lane, $6; only a healthy trio of Astros' outfielders continues to stand between Lane and a $20 season.
Potential bust: Livan Hernandez, $17; the odds of him more than echoing last year's performance seem quite low, especially now that he isn't pitching for a new contract.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Linden, Neugebauer, and Liefer.
Early good/bad luck: Early consistent playing time for Craig Wilson($17) and Aaron Miles($13) is good news, but Lane, Juan Rivera($9), and Brady Clark($5) have barely cracked their respective lineups and Chad Tracy($3) lost a roster spot to Donnie Sadler. At least Grant Roberts($2) should post better numbers as a reliever than a starter.
Trade bait: Pitching, since even if Livan struggles, the rest of this staff looks intriguingly solid.

I really like this offense. Edgar Renteria($35) and Scott Rolen($32) are nearly ideal centerpieces, and aside from Lane, Rivera, Clark, and Lamb, every other player on this team owns a fairly secure starting job. While I don't foresee Murphy's team dominating any offensive categories unless his outfield backups find more playing time soon, I expect him to compete in all five categories.

His pitching staff also appears surprisingly solid. Armando Benitez($23), Danny Graves($13), Chad Fox($1), and Roberts should net him 70 or more saves while providing a solid qualitative base. Although Hernandez and Tom Glavine($3) worry me, they at least each should contribute double-digit wins, and if Cincinnati maintains their current pace, Cory Lidle($4), Aaron Harang($1), and Acevedo all should be great bargains. Of course, all three Reds should earn double these prices under most any circumstance.

Summary: Drafting two Rockies' starters as part of a very weak reserve list concerns me, however Murphy's auction was very impressive. I expect to see him contend all year barring a complete breakdown of his starting pitching.

Owner: Cory Schwartz
Publication: MLB.com
$ Left: $0.
Split: $186H/$74P = 72/28.
Reserve roster: Rickie Weeks, Rheal Cormier, Xavier Nady, Josh Barfield, Edwin Encarnacion, and Julian Tavarez.

Nice pick: Sean Burroughs, $18; paying this price is reasonable if he only mildly improves on his 2003 numbers. If he develops more power, this should be a nice bargain.
Top sleeper: A.J. Burnett, $1; an obvious wild card, Burnett should return no later than mid-season and could contribute very helpful stats in almost any role.
Potential bust: Jimmy Rollins, $23; yes, he should return to this level of value, but unless he regains his SB skills of 2002, he could fall well under $20.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Barfield and Encarnacion.
Early good/bad luck: Joe Thurston($1), Endy Chavez($1), and Nady all failed to break camp in the majors, and the injury to Eli Marrero($5) leaves this team slightly shorthanded. At least Oscar Villarreal($1) overcame arm problems in the spring to begin the season with Arizona
Trade bait: Bonds($36), Thome($31), and Aramis Ramirez($31) each could hit 40 homers this year, potentially giving Schwartz a power excess.

A weak reserve draft and a couple of unexpected demotions left Schwartz with surprisingly little flexibility, yet if his core position players stay healthy, he could post impressive numbers in every category save steals. With his solid corners, Rollins and D'Angelo Jimenez($16), Mike Lieberthal($13), and Bonds, only health stands between Schwartz and significant quantitative and qualitative offensive points.

Braden Looper($15), Brian Fuentes($3), John Riedling($1), Villarreal, Cormier and Tavarez comprise a respectable pen, particularly if the latter two spend much more time active than Fuentes and Riedling. A starting foursome of Roy Oswalt($23), Vicente Padilla($12), Odalis Perez($11), and Brett Myers($7) also appears nicely underpriced given each pitcher's upside. However, I don't see any significant bargains here, and most of these pitchers qualify as injury risks.

Summary: Given Schwartz's respectable all-around team, a strong rebound from Burnett could push him into contention.

Owner: Dave Gawron
Publication: CREATiVESPORTS
$ Left: $0.
Split: $210H/$50P = 81/19.
Reserve roster: Matt Kinney, Mike Matheny, Felipe Lopez, Kirk Saarloos, Steve Smitherman, and Orlando Palmeiro.

Nice pick: LaTroy Hawkins, $3; he at least should earn double this price even if he spends all year in middle relief.
Top sleeper: Chase Utley, $5; any injury to Polanco, Rollins, or Bell should push Utley back into the starting lineup.
Potential bust: Preston Wilson, $32; if his knee requires surgery any time soon, this selection will look terrible.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): None.
Early good/bad luck: While Jason Bay($20) should return soon, Wilson's troubles increasingly worry me. Juan Cruz($4) failed to earn the starting job he deserves. Utley's back at AAA and Rene Reyes($4) isn't playing regularly. At least Matheny's posting his normally excellent April numbers.
Trade bait: If everyone appears healthy by May, Gawron's $210 offense should provide him with excess in a couple of categories.

The strong starts by Miguel Cabrera($23) and Kaz Matsui($23) help compensate for Wilson's minimal playing time, yet Gawron needs his most expensive player healthy to contend. He owns relatively little speed and could use the flexibility to convert his likely power surplus into steals and pitching help. A questionable reserve roster also leaves him with relatively poor alternatives if Bay or Wilson remains out long.

Individually, his pitchers look fairly decent, but only Ben Sheets($11) and Hawkins look like great buys. Shawn Chacon($14) should be good, and Tim Redding($8), Mike Hampton($6), Dustin Hermanson($2), Brett Tomko($1), and Claudio Vargas($1) each could reach double-digit value, yet aside from Hampton, all these guys also could slip into negative value due to questionable skills. Adding another solid arm or two early in the year would give this team a nice boost.

Summary: While this team certainly could spend the year in the first division, playing time problems among the position players, primarily due to injury, might force Gawron's team down in the standings.

Owner: Paul Petera
Publication: Baseball HQ
$ Left: $0.
Split: $174H/$86P = 67/33.
Reserve roster: Darren Oliver, Adrian Hernandez, Antonio Osuna, Rod Beck, Emil Brown, and Gavin Floyd.

Nice pick: Matt Herges, $8; this gamble already looks like perhaps the best buy of the draft.
Top sleeper: Wily Mo Pena, $3; a Griffey injury or trade could give Petera an unexpected double-digit value.
Potential bust: Brandon Larson, $11; Ryan Freel could hold the Cincy 3B job until Edwin Encarnacion reaches the majors.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Brown and Floyd.
Early good/bad luck: Larson's injury limits his upside and neither Dave Ross($4) nor Corky Miller($1) appear likely to earn as much playing time as expected. However, Herges' emergence in San Francisco compensates for these problems rather nicely
Trade bait: Saves, particularly if Akinori Otsuka begins seeing some San Diego opportunities.

Despite rostering six backups for $4 or less, the six-player core of this offense could produce exceptional numbers. Derrek Lee($30), Chipper Jones($30), Placido Polanco($22), Jeromy Burnitz($22), Raul Mondesi($22), and Geoff Jenkins($20) all are established veterans who should reaches these values fairly comfortably. Unfortunately, I just don't see much upside in these players, so unless backups like Ross, Pena, and Pedro Feliz($6) earn starting jobs soon, quantitative problems could sink this offense even if the injury-prone Jenkins stays healthy all year.

A strong pitching staff helps offset the offensive questions. Herges and Matt Mantei($18) anchor a solid pen of Otsuka, Dave Weathers($1), and Osuna. I also really like the upside of Wade Miller($16), Brad Penny($13), Jerome Williams($14), Eric Milton($14), Kaz Ishii($1), and Oliver, giving this pitching staff as much depth and upside as almost any in the league.

Summary: If one more of Petera's players emerges in similar fashion to Herges, he should possess enough value to challenge for an in-the-money finish.

Looking over the league as a whole, I see a fairly clear breakdown into four quartiles. The quality, depth, and upside of Anderson's squad makes him an obvious favorite to me. Murphy, Hoyos, Leibowitz, and Silver each drafted fairly strong teams and each could win with a little luck. The next tier of borderline first division teams includes the squads of Rosenthal, Petera, Wilderman & Muckler, and Schwartz, each of whom could contend but likely will finish no higher than the bottom of the first division. Finally, thanks primarily to injury problems, Kreutzer & Patton, Gawron, Feldman, and Brown each will need surprising seasons from several players even to challenge for any of the top four spots as each appears destined for a second division finish.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Anyone looking for an early-season trade boost should target position players on the Devil Rays and Yankees. Rocco Baldelli, Aubrey Huff, and every Yankee save Sheffield and Posada are playing relatively poorly right now, quite possibly as a result of the problems we saw the Mets and Cubs experience in 2000 after returning from Japan. Expect full rebounds from everyone on these teams, and if you can acquire someone like Huff or Jeter now, you also benefit from missing their worst stretches of the season.