Today's Fantasy Rx

Ten of last year's twelve owners returned to AL Tout this season. The only two rookies were Baseball Prospectus' Joe Sheehan, who replaced BP's Jonah Keri, and Sam Walker of the Wall Street Journal, who's researching fantasy baseball.

The top story to watch here is the attempt by Masterball's Jason Grey to post the first Tout threepeat. Grey's wins the last two seasons make him the logical favorite prior to the season, so we'll see if this year's draft gives him the players needed to succeed.

Please refer to the 2004 AL Tout Wars rosters here.

Owner: Jason Grey
Site: Mastersball.com
$ Left: $0.
Split: $193H/$67P = 74/26.
Reserve roster: Justin Morneau, Dewon Brazelton, Mark Hendrickson, Juan Rincon, Colby Lewis, and Antonio Perez.

Nice pick: Ben Broussard, $6; the chance of Broussard earning double this price makes him an excellent value.
Top sleeper: Justin Morneau, R; if he gets the opportunity, Morneau's quantitative numbers will let him approach $20
Potential bust: Desi Relaford, $17; while Relaford's injury makes this an easy choice, he likely wasn't going to earn much over $10 under any circumstance.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): None.
Early good/bad luck: The trade of Milton Bradley($21) to LA pushed his upside well over $30 and Danny Patterson($1) looks like the Tigers' April closer. Relaford's injury knocks his value down a couple bucks,
Category to trade: Power, particularly since he'll need to acquire BA and possibly steals.

Grey rostered several players at good prices, drafting a balanced roster that should allow him to compete in every category. He only exceeded $20 on four players, however acquiring an outfield of Carlos Lee, Randy Winn, Jay Gibbons, and Milton Bradley for a total of $96 gives him an excellent talent base. Only Greg Norton($1) is an obvious question mark, and owning Relaford at 2B allows him to FAAB either a second or third basemen.

While spending $10 on Jeremy Affeldt, $9 on Byung-Hyun Kim, and $4 on Scott Schoeneweis leaves him with some pitching questions, he still owns eight interesting starters, as well as a nicely inexpensive bullpen of Dave Riske($16), Julio Mateo($2), and Patterson. Although Grey didn't focus on strikeouts this year as I expected, he also isn't vulnerable anywhere except possibly saves. His chances of finishing no lower than the middle-of-the-pack in every category look fairly good.

Summary: I don't see enough upside here to anoint Grey the obvious favorite, however the relatively minimal downside of this balanced roster makes him an obvious contender. Another championship also wouldn't surprise me if prospects like Morneau and Brazelton return to the majors quickly.

I'll continue tomorrow with the other six teams and my picks for the top finishers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you find yourself with an excess of cash at the midpoint of your draft, target the best couple players on your board and overpay by a few bucks if necessary to roster them. Leaving more than a buck or two on the table in any draft is a significant mistake. Paying $40 for $30 of talent gives you a better team than paying $20 for $25 of talent where you leave the extra $20 on the table.