Today's Fantasy Rx

The spate of late-breaking trades over the past several days has altered the value of several players, necessitating a brief look at the adjusted fantasy potential of the players in new situations.

Boston trades Tony Womack to St. Louis for Matt Duff

Despite only six months removed from Tommy John surgery, Womack appears healthy and ready to claim the Cardinals' second base job over Marlon Anderson and Bo Hart. While his terrible OBP will drag down the St. Louis offense regardless of where he bats in the lineup, Womack still possesses good speed and could contribute to many fantasy teams. An endgame flyer on him should net you double-digit steals, although his questionable batting average likely will leave him with only a few bucks of roto value even if he starts a majority of games this year. Anderson now merits only similar consideration rather than the several-dollar investment he warranted as a likely starter capable of stealing 20 bases.

Boston hopefully will give Duff the opportunity St. Louis denied the right-hander. He owns an impressive strikeout rate, and if he limits his walks, he should develop into a very solid reliever. If an injury gives Duff the break he needs, he should surprise for the Red Sox.

New York Yankees trade Mike Lamb to Houston for Jose DeLeon

Morgan Ensberg's poor spring prompted the Astros to acquire an alternate third baseman, a terrible move considering Jimy Williams' established willingness to sit Ensberg in favor of lesser options like Geoff Blum. If we ignore the big picture, Lamb is a decent acquisition for Houston, giving them a second lefty off the bench, not to mention someone with more power than Orlando Palmeiro. Yet we must consider the likelihood that playing Lamb over Ensberg will cost Houston a win or two, making this move questionable at best, although he merits Dollar Days' consideration in most NL-leagues thanks to the combination of his power potential and new home park.

DeLeon lacks the potential of Jose Garcia, who the Yankees originally dealt to Texas for Lamb prior to moving for ARod. As neither pitcher even should succeed in AA this year, they're not roto options.

Chicago Cubs trade Juan Cruz & Steve Smyth to
Atlanta for Andy Pratt & Richie Lewis

The reign of Dusty Baker claims another young victim as the Cubs' third solid youngster in eight months is thrown out of the organization. Following Bobby Hill and Hee Choi out of town, Cruz should blossom in Atlanta under Leo Mazzone's tutelage, making him an incredible sleeper this year even if he remains in the bullpen. His long-term future looks brighter than ever considering Atlanta's impressive defense and Cruz's very promising skill set, and we expect Chicago will regret this trade for a long time. Of course, moving Smyth out of the organization was a plus given his limited immediate upside and an approaching wave of left-handed talent, but losing Cruz is not an acceptable price.

Andy Pratt isn't a bad pitcher, and his dominant performance at AAA Richmond(IL) last year suggests a promising future. However, inconsistent command likely will push him to the bullpen almost immediately, and Lewis' limited power potential makes him look like a future backup at best. Dealing a developing stud starter for a lefty reliever and reserve infielder is almost always a terrible idea, especially when Chicago should have been able to acquire a much better player in return. We suspect the presence of Pratt's father Tom as a minor league pitching coach for Chicago helped send Cruz to Atlanta, yet the new Cubs don't appear to be particularly valuable additions to the organization. Neither of them is a great gamble this spring, and Cruz easily should earn more roto value than both players combined every year of his career.

Arizona trades John Patterson to Montreal for Randy Choate

Jesse Orosco's retirement essentially led to the Diamondbacks giving away a former top prospect for future waiver bait. While Arizona acquired lefties Casey Fossum and Jorge de la Rosa in the Schilling deal, they immediately moved de la Rosa and Chris Capuano to Milwaukee in the Sexson trade. Aside from returning lefty reliever Stephen Randolph, Jim Parque ranked as the second best option in camp thanks to the health problems of Fossum and Shane Nance, acquired from the Brewers with Sexson. Rather than waiting for a decent lefty like Kevin Walker to hit waivers, the Diamondbacks essentially gave away Patterson for a short-term bullpen fix. I like Choate, but he offers easily replaceable skills and lacks the upside to make him a good roto pick.

Of course, Patterson similarly is a poor fantasy choice right now. I definitely expect him to develop into a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter, but the combination of control problems and a general flyball tendency makes him a terrible bet for Expos' home games. He also isn't guaranteed to open the year in the rotation given the respectable spring performances by Shawn Hill and Sun-Woo Kim. Wait until Montreal leaves Puerto Rico for good before considering for your team in any save the deepest leagues.

Cincinnati trades Chris Reitsma to
Atlanta for Bubba Nelson & Jung Bong

The Braves' dynasty will crumble under moves like this trade. Chris Reitsma impressed as the Reds' closer last year, owns good skills, and should provide the Braves with competent set-up work. However, two dozen similar relievers were available for very little over the winter. Despite some spring struggles, Will Cunnane and Trey Hodges both merit bullpen jobs thanks to their effectiveness last year, and Reitsma provides only a moderate improvement on either pitcher.

More importantly, the inane fascination with employing Jaret Wright as a starter no longer makes any sense. We know Wright can dominate in the bullpen; he demonstrated the necessary skills when Atlanta acquired him last year from San Diego. Risking his health in a return to the rotation also appears completely unnecessary with Juan Cruz now available to start. A bullpen featuring Smoltz closing, right-handers Wright, Cunnane, Hodges, and Antonio Alfonseca, and lefties Bong and Armando Almanza lacks experience but employs a variety of pitchers who all own decent skills.

Nevertheless, Reitsma will benefit from pitching for the Braves as he value moves closer to $10 than $1, particularly given Smoltz's recent injury history. Ryan Wagner's roto value also increases as only Danny Graves now stands between him and a full-time closer's job.

My main problem with the deal is that Nelson and Bong both should develop into solid starters, and either pitcher could emerge as a star given their respective ages and statistical histories. Mortgaging them now to address perceived bullpen uncertainties seems like a terrible waste of prospects. Feel free to consider either pitcher in deeper Ultra leagues, however please recognize that Cincinnati's respectable pitching depth means both pitchers could spend the year in the minors.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Remember that "Opening Day" is tomorrow, Tuesday, March 30th, at 4AM (CST). ESPN2 will broadcast the Devil Rays and Yankees from Japan, and we certainly recommend catching at least an inning or two even with the early start. We're looking forward to the bleating in the New York media after Tampa wins at least one, if not both contests, of the two-game series.