Today's Fantasy Rx

Once again, we're presenting prospect lists specifically geared towards fantasy baseball with no consideration of "peak" or "long-term potential" other than what a player will contribute in standard 4x4 and 5x5 leagues.

We've ranked players in three lists for this article. The top 150 prospects list is meant for Ultra drafts, the top 42 prospects is intended exclusively for owners in extremely deep leagues who desire the best prospect trade bait, and our top 25 prospects of 2004-05 list is meant for traditional roto leagues with three-round minor league drafts.

I projected four values for each prospect listed below: his likely value in 2004, his 2004 roto upside, his likely 2005 value, and his likely long-term upside considering the prospect's tools, skills, and age. After averaging these values, weighted heavily towards potential 2004 considerations as well as adjusting the relative value of pitchers downward due to the greater volatility in projecting pitcher development, we arrived at a rough ranking of the prospects in each league.

A few players on the first list will be minor league veterans who only need a chance to succeed in the majors. I designated these players with an asterisk for those of you only interested in drafting more traditional prospects.

Rule 5 draftees have a ^ next to their names; their placement on the list assumes they remain with their new teams. Ignore them if returned to their former franchise as they have practically no chance of breaking camp with their old team.

Before beginning, we want to note our appreciation for all the resources available to everyone interested in minor leaguers from established analysts like John Sickels, as well as Kevin Goldstein and everyone at Baseball America. We hope you enjoy these two days of prospects.

Note: We employed MLB rookie guidelines, so no one here has exceeded 130 MLB AB or 50 MLB IP, or has accumulated 45 days on an MLB roster prior to September 1st of any season.

* - denotes players not on a 40-man roster nor considered a prospect due to age

^ - denotes players selected in the 2003 Major League Rule 5 draft

Rotohelp's Top 150 NL Ultra Fantasy Prospects for 2004
1. Kazuo Matsui, SS, NYM
2. Jason Bay, OF, PIT
3. Terrmel Sledge, OF, MON
4. Khalil Greene, SS, SD
5. Adam LaRoche, 1B, ATL
6. Freddy Sanchez, IF, PIT
7. Jason Lane, OF, HOU
8. Edwin Jackson, SP, LA
9. Aaron Miles, 2B, COL
10. J.J. Davis, OF, PIT
11. Chad Tracy, 3B, ARI
12. Abraham Nunez, OF, FLO
13. Rene Reyes, OF, COL
14. Chris Capuano, SP, MIL
15. Freddy Guzman, OF, SD
16. Willy Taveras, OF, HOU^
17. J.J. Hardy, SS, MIL
18. Tim Hummel, 3B, CIN
19. Wilson Valdez, SS, FLO
20. Garrett Atkins, 3B, COL
21. Chris Burke, 2B, HOU
22. Dave Kelton, OF, CHC
23. Adam Wainwright, SP, ATL
24. Ryan Madson, SP, PHI
25. Cody Ransom, SS, SF
26. Jayson Nix, 2B, COL
27. David Wright, 3B, NYM
28. Jose Castillo, 2B, PIT
29. Scott Hairston, 2B, ARI
30. Dave Krynzel, OF, MIL
31. Prentice Redman, OF, NYM
32. Chin-Feng Chen, OF, LA
33. Edgar Gonzalez, SP, ARI
34. Brendan Harris, 2B, CHC
35. Maicer Izturis, SS, MON
36. J.R. House, C, PIT
37. Todd Linden, OF, SF
38. Craig Ansman, C, ARI
39. Scott Hodges, 3B, MON
40. Koyie Hill, C, LA
41. Kevin Correia, SP, SF
42. J.D. Closser, C, COL
43. Tagg Bozied, 1B, SD
44. Luis Terrero, OF, ARI
45. Steve Smitherman, OF, CIN
46. Victor Diaz, IF, NYM
47. John Van Benschoten, SP, PIT
48. Wilson Betemit, 3B, ATL
49. Henri Stanley, OF, SD
50. John Gall, 1B, STL
51. Franklin Gutierrez, OF, LA
52. Chad Cordero, RP, MON
53. Brad Hawpe, OF, COL
54. Jon Knott, 1B, SD
55. Wilkin Ruan, OF, LA
56. Andy Pratt, SP, ATL
57. Akinori Otsuka, RP, SD
58. Jason DuBois, OF, CHC
59. Mike Hessman, OF, ATL
60. Cory Sullivan, OF, COL
61. Andy Abad, 1B, PIT*
62. Clint Barmes, SS, COL
63. Danny Garcia, 2B, NYM
64. Josh Willingham, C, FLO
65. Corey Hart, OF, MIL
66. Adrian Hernandez, SP, MIL
67. Sergio Mitre, SP, CHC
68. Brandon Claussen, SP, CIN
69. Sean Burnett, SP, SD
70. Joel Hanrahan, SP, LA
71. Noah Lowry, SP, SF
72. Joe Thurston, 2B, LA
73. Val Pascucci, OF, MON
74. Jorge Piedra, OF, COL
75. Bernie Castro, 2B, SD
76. Andy Machado, SS, PHI
77. James Loney, 1B, LA
78. Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL
79. Jorge de la Rosa, SP, MIL
80. Ryan Wagner, RP, CIN
81. Greg Miller, SP, LA
82. Luis Gonzalez, 1B, COL^
83. Hector Luna, SS, STL^
84. Kit Pellow, C, COL
85. Doug Devore, OF, ARI
86. Jose Flores, OF, LA
87. Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL
88. Andy Marte, 3B, ATL
89. Dustin Moseley, SP, CIN
90. Luis Martinez, SP, STL
91. Taylor Buchholz, SP, HOU
92. Josh Hancock, SP, PHI
93. Jeremy Griffiths, SP, NYM
94. Rhett Parrott, SP, STL
95. Greg Bruso, SP, MIL
96. Chris Oxspring, SP, SD
97. Mike Nannini, SP, FLO
98. Jermaine Clark, OF, CIN*
99. Jason Ellison, OF, SF
100. Matt Holliday, OF, COL
101. John Buck, C, HOU
102. Tony Alvarez, OF, PIT
103. Colin Porter, OF, STL
104. Mike Jacobs, C, NYM
105. Choo Freeman, OF, COL
106. Kevin Hooper, 2B, FLO
107. Derek Wathan, 1B, FLO
108. Justin Germano, SP, SD
109. Victor Hall, OF, ARI^
110. Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, CIN
111. Justin Wayne, SP, FLO
112. Wilton Chavez, SP, MON
113. Brandon Gemoll, 1B, MIL
114. Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLO
115. Josh Barfield, 2B, SD
116. Gavin Floyd, SP, PHI
117. Merkin Valdez, SP, SF
118. Phil Stockman, SP, ARI
119. Heath Totten, SP, LA
120. Mike Connolly, SP, PIT
121. Doug Sessions, SP, HOU
122. Tom Farmer, SP, LA
123. Brian Sweeney, SP, SD
124. John Barnes, OF, LA*
125. So Taguchi, OF, STL
126. Michel Hernandez, C, PHI
127. Nic Jackson, OF, CHC
128. Humberto Cota, C, PIT
129. Ryan Langerhans, OF, ATL
130. Luke Allen, OF, PIT
131. Carlos Valderrama, OF, SF
132. Eric Riggs, 3B, LA
133. Matt Cepicky, OF, MON
134. Seung Song, SP, MON
135. Cory Stewart, SP, PIT
136. Ian Snell, SP, PIT
137. Justin Huber, C, NYM
138. Josh Pearce, SP, STL
139. Matt Belisle, SP, CIN
140. Eric Junge, SP, PHI
141. Steve Stemle, SP, STL
142. Scott Seabol, 3B, STL
143. Jeff Salazar, OF, COL
144. Matt Treanor, C, FLO*
145. Chris Young, SP, MON
146. Ben Hendrickson, SP, MIL
147. D.J. Houlton, SP, HOU
148. Mike Gosling, SP, ARI
149. Nic Ungs, SP, FLO
150. Pedro Liriano, SP, MIL

Rotohelp's Top 42 2004 NL Fantasy Prospects for Long-term Leagues
1. Freddy Guzman, OF, SD
2. James Loney, 1B, LA
3. Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL
4. Kazuo Matsui, SS, NYM
5. Jason Lane, OF, HOU
6. Jayson Nix, OF, COL
7. David Wright, 3B, NYM
8. Franklin Gutierrez, OF, LA
9. Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL
10. Andy Marte, 3B, ATL
11. Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLO
12. Josh Barfield, 2B, SD
13. Jason Bay, OF, PIT
14. Edwin Jackson, SP, LA
15. Terrmel Sledge, OF, MON
16. Adam Wainwright, SP, STL
17. Ryan Madson, SP, PHI
18. Edgar Gonzalez, SP, ARI
19. Ryan Wagner, RP, CIN
20. Wilson Valdez, SS, FLO
21. Garrett Atkins, 3B, COL
22. John Van Benschoten, SP, PIT
23. Greg Miller, SP, LA
24. Gavin Floyd, SP, PHI
25. Merkin Valdez, SP, SF
26. Josh Willingham, C, FLO
27. Corey Hart, OF, MIL
28. Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, CIN
29. Chris Young, SP, MON
30. Mike Hinckley, SP, MON
31. Jeff Salazar, OF, COL
32. Cole Hamels, SP, PHI
33. Scott Kazmir, SP, NYM
34. Chadd Blasko, SP, CHC
35. Freddy Sanchez, IF, PIT
36. Khalil Greene, SS, SD
37. Adam LaRoche, 1B, ATL
38. J.J. Davis, OF, PIT
39. Rene Reyes, OF, COL
40. Chris Capuano, SP, MIL
41. Chad Cordero, RP, MON
42. Akinori Otsuka, RP, SD

Rotohelp's Top 25 NL Fantasy Prospects for 2004…
who should merit keeping at $10 in 2005 per traditional rules
1. Kazuo Matsui, SS, NYM
2. Jason Bay, OF, SD
3. Jason Lane, OF, HOU
4. Edwin Jackson, SP, LA
5. Terrmel Sledge, OF, MON
6. Khalil Greene, SS, SD
7. Adam LaRoche, 1B, ATL
8. Freddy Sanchez, IF, PIT
9. Aaron Miles, 2B, COL
10. Chris Capuano, SP, MIL
11. Chad Cordero, RP, MON
12. Chad Tracy, 3B, ARI
13. Adam Wainwright, SP, STL
14. Ryan Madson, RP, PHI
15. Freddy Guzman, OF, SD
16. J.J. Hardy, SS, MIL
17. Chris Burke, 2B, HOU
18. Dave Kelton, OF, CHC
19. John Van Benschoten, SP, PIT
20. J.J. Davis, OF, SD
21. Akinori Otsuka, RP, SD
22. Abraham Nunez, OF, FLO
23. Edgar Gonzalez, SP, ARI
24. Kevin Correia, SP, SF
25. Ryan Wagner, RP, CIN

Today's Fantasy Rx: While Bobby Crosby should pace AL rookies, another shortstop, the Mets' Kaz Matsui, should win the NL Rookie of the Year award. The injuries to Jason Bay and Freddy Sanchez remove two primary competitors, and unless Jason Lane finds extra playing time, only Terrmel Sledge and Edwin Jacson should pose serious challenges to Matsui. Adam LaRoche, Khalil Green, and Aaron Miles also all might surprise, and Chris Capuano and Adam Wainwright offer intriguing upside. Unfortunately, the majority of future superstars among the current crop of NL prospects likely won't see the majors until late in the season, making Matsui the only NL rookie essentially guaranteed to reach double-digit value in 2004.