Today's Fantasy Rx

Once again, we're presenting prospect lists specifically geared towards fantasy baseball with no consideration of "peak" or "long-term potential" other than what a player will contribute in standard 4x4 and 5x5 leagues.

We've ranked players in three lists for this article. The top 150 prospects list is meant for Ultra drafts, the top 42 prospects is intended exclusively for owners in extremely deep leagues who desire the best prospect trade bait, and our top 25 prospects of 2004-05 list is meant for traditional roto leagues with three-round minor league drafts.

I projected four values for each prospect listed below: his likely value in 2004, his 2004 roto upside, his likely 2005 value, and his likely long-term upside considering the prospect's tools, skills, and age. After averaging these values, weighted heavily towards potential 2004 considerations as well as adjusting the relative value of pitchers downward due to the greater volatility in projecting pitcher development, we arrived at a rough ranking of the prospects in each league.

A few players on the first list will be minor league veterans who only need a chance to succeed in the majors. I designated these players with an asterisk for those of you only interested in drafting more traditional prospects.

Rule 5 draftees have a ^ next to their names; their placement on the list assumes they remain with their new teams. Ignore them if returned to their former franchise as they have practically no chance of breaking camp with their old team.

Before beginning, we want to note our appreciation for all the resources available to everyone interested in minor leaguers from established analysts like John Sickels, as well as Kevin Goldstein and everyone at Baseball America. We hope you enjoy these two days of prospects.

Note: We employed MLB rookie guidelines, so no one here has exceeded 130 MLB AB or 50 MLB IP, or has accumulated 45 days on an MLB roster prior to September 1st of any season.

* - denotes players not on a 40-man roster nor considered a prospect due to age

^ - denotes players selected in the 2003 Major League Rule 5 draft

Rotohelp's Top 150 AL Ultra Fantasy Prospects for 2004
1. Bobby Crosby, SS, OAK
2. Joe Mauer, C, MIN
3. Jeremy Reed, OF, CHW
4. Gerald Laird, C, TEX
5. David DeJesus, OF, KC
6. Gabe Gross, OF, TOR
7. Ross Gload, 1B, CHW
8. B.J. Upton, SS, TB
9. Doug Waechter, SP, TB
10. Ramon Nivar, OF, TEX
11. Cody Ross, OF, DET
12. Graham Koonce, 1B, OAK
13. Alexis Rios, OF, TOR
14. Dallas McPherson, 3B, ANA
15. Matt Riley, SP, BAL
16. Kevin Cash, C, TOR
17. Grady Sizemore, OF, CLE
18. Rich Thompson, OF, KC^
19. Mike Ryan, OF, MIN
20. Tim Raines, Jr., OF, BAL
21. Alfredo Amezaga, SS, ANA
22. Grant Balfour, SP, MIN
23. Dan Johnson, 1B, OAK
24. Chris Shelton, C/1B, DET^
25. Jason Arnold, SP, TOR
26. Jose Lopez, SS, SEA
27. Mike Restovich, OF, MIN
28. Mike Fontenot, 2B, BAL
29. Joe Borchard, OF, CHW
30. Jason Bartlett, SS, MIN
31. Kevin Youkilis, 3B, BOS
32. Chris Snelling, OF, SEA
33. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, TEX
34. Jamal Strong, OF, SEA
35. Zach Greinke, SP, KC
36. Jon Rauch, SP, CHW
37. Jeff Mathis, C, ANA
38. Nook Logan, OF, DET
39. Alexis Gomez, OF, KC
40. Guillermo Quiroz, C, TOR
41. Justin Leone, 3B, SEA
42. Jeremy Guthrie, SP, CLE
43. Russ Adams, SS, TOR
44. Travis Chapman, 3B, KC
45. Justin Duchscherer, SP, OAK
46. Chad Gaudin, SP, TB
47. Kelly Shoppach, C, BOS
48. Robb Quinlan, 1B, ANA
49. Pete LaForest, DH/C, TB
50. Jorge DePaula, SP, NYY
51. Dustin McGowan, SP, TOR
52. John Maine, SP, BAL
53. Ervin Santana, SP, ANA
54. Rob Bowen, C, MIN
55. Jonny Gomes, OF, TB
56. Byron Gettis, OF, KC
57. Dioner Navarro, C, NYY
58. Kevin Gregg, SP, ANA
59. Brad Thomas, SP, MIN
60. Clint Nageotte, SP, SEA
61. J.D. Durbin, SP, MIN
62. Joe Blanton, SP, OAK
63. Jesse Crain, RP, MIN
64. Barry Wesson, OF, ANA
65. Matt Diaz, OF, TB
66. Delmon Young, OF, TB
67. Travis Blackley, SP, SEA
68. Neal Cotts, SP, CHW
69. Erik Bedard, SP, BAL
70. Esteban German, 2B, OAK
71. Jesus Medrano, 2B, BOS
72. Matt Watson, OF, OAK
73. Casey Kotchman, 1B, ANA
74. Bubba Crosby, OF, NYY
75. Andy Dominique, C, BOS
76. Simon Pond, 3B, TOR
77. Noah Hall, OF, TOR*
78. Denny Bautista, SP, BAL
79. Nick Swisher, OF, OAK
80. Rob Henkel, SP, DET
81. Mike Wood, SP, OAK
82. Felix Diaz, SP, CHW
83. Brent Hoard, SP, MIN
84. Luis Rodriguez, 2B, MIN*
85. Darnell McDonald, OF, BAL
86. Jason Grabowski, OF, OAK
87. Mike Edwards, OF, OAK
88. Jeff Pickler, 2B, TEX
89. David Bush, SP, TOR
90. Joey Gathright, OF, TB
91. Josh Stewart, SP, CHW
92. Shane Loux, SP, DET
93. Jamie Burke, C, CHW
94. Corey Smith, 3B, CLE
95. Terry Tiffee, 3B, MIN
96. Juan Dominguez, SP, TEX
97. Rett Johnson, SP, SEA
98. Kyle Denney, SP, CLE
99. Eric Schmitt, SP, NYY
100. Francisco Cruceta, SP, CLE
101. Matt Guerrier, SP, MIN
102. Lenny DiNardo, SP, BOS
103. Mike Rose, C, OAK
104. Jason Jones, OF, TEX
105. Erick Almonte, SS, NYY
106. Adam Riggs, 1B, ANA
107. Bobby Jenks, SP, ANA
108. Chris Bootcheck, SP, ANA
109. Bobby Madritsch, SP, SEA
110. Rich Fischer, SP, ANA
111. Jon Adkins, SP, CHW
112. Alex Graman, SP, NYY
113. Alberto Callaspo, 2B, ANA
114. Mike Curry, OF, BOS*
115. Anton French, OF, TB*
116. Rich Paz, 2B, CHW*
117. Bucky Jacobsen, 1B, SEA*
118. Kris Honel, SP, CHW
119. Jeremy Brown, C, OAK
120. Mike Rouse, SS, OAK
121. John Rheinecker, SP, OAK
122. Kenny Baugh, SP, DET
123. Cha Seung Baek, SP, SEA
124. Marios Ramos, SP, OAK
125. Jeff Heaverlo, SP, SEA
126. Boof Bonser, SP, MIN
127. Joey Hammond, UT, BAL
128. Mike Lockwood, OF, OAK
129. Scott Proctor, RP, NYY
130. Aaron Looper, RP, SEA
131. John-Ford Griffin, OF, TOR
132. Chien-Ming Wang, SP, NYY
133. Wil Nieves, C, ANA
134. Vinny Chulk, SP, TOR
135. Enemencio Pacheco, SP, CHW
136. Brian Forystrek, SP, BAL
137. Ryan Snare, SP, TEX
138. Dave Gassner, SP, MIN
139. Shane Komine, SP, OAK
140. Matt Hensley, SP, ANA
141. John Ennis, SP, DET
142. Brent Schoening, SP, MIN
143. Andy Beal, SP, NYY
144. Pedro Swann, OF, BAL*
145. Mickey Lopez, 2B, SEA*
146. Napolean Calzado, 3B, BAL*
147. Scott Autrey, SP, TB
148. Alex Prieto, IF, MIN*
149. Matt Thornton, SP, SEA
150. Donald Kelly, SS, DET

Rotohelp's Top 42 2004 AL Fantasy Prospects for Long-term Leagues
1. B.J. Upton, SS, TB
2. Joe Mauer, C, MIN
3. Alexis Rios, OF, TOR
4. Delmon Young, OF, TB
5. Bobby Crosby, SS, OAK
6. Jeremy Reed, OF, CHW
7. Grady Sizemore, OF, CLE
8. Dan Johnson, 1B, OAK
9. Jose Lopez, SS, SEA
10. Mike Restovich, OF, MIN
11. Dioner Navarro, C, NYY
12. Casey Kotchman, 1B, ANA
13. Dallas McPherson, 3B, ANA
14. David DeJesus, OF, KC
15. Matt Riley, SP, BAL
16. Zach Greinke, SP, KC
17. Jon Rauch, SP, CHW
18. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, TEX
19. Dustin McGowan, SP, TOR
20. John Maine, SP, BAL
21. Ervin Santana, SP, ANA
22. Cody Ross, OF, DET
23. Graham Koonce, 1B, OAK
24. Jamal Strong, OF, SEA
25. Clint Nageotte, SP, SEA
26. J.D. Durbin, SP, MIN
27. Joe Blanton, SP, OAK
28. Denny Bautista, SP, BAL
29. Kris Honel, SP, CHW
30. Joey Gathright, OF, TB
31. Alberto Callaspo, 2B, ANA
32. Doug Waechter, SP, TB
33. Gabe Gross, OF, TOR
34. Ramon Nivar, OF, TEX
35. Jeremy Guthrie, SP, CLE
36. Mike Fontonet, 2B, BAL
37. Jason Bartlett, SS, MIN
38. Joe Borchard, OF, CHW
39. Kevin Youkilis, 3B, BOS
40. Chris Snelling, OF, SEA
41. Jeff Mathis, C, ANA
42. Jesse Crain, RP, MIN

Rotohelp's Top 25 AL Fantasy Prospects for 2004…
who should merit keeping at $10 in 2005 per traditional rules
1. Bobby Crosby, SS, OAK
2. Jeremy Reed, OF, CHW
3. B.J. Upton, SS, TB
4. Dallas McPherson, 3B, ANA
5. Joe Mauer, C, MIN
6. Doug Waechter, SP, TB
7. Gerald Laird, C, TEX
8. David DeJesus, OF, KC
9. Matt Riley, SP, BAL
10. Zach Greinke, SP, KC
11. Jon Rauch, SP, CHW
12. Gabe Gross, OF, TOR
13. Ramon Nivar, OF, TEX
14. Jeremy Guthrie, SP, CLE 15. Kevin Cash, C, TOR
16. Alexis Rios, OF, TOR
17. Grady Sizemore, OF, CLE
18. Dan Johnson, 1B, OAK
19. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, TEX
20. Dustin McGowan, SP, TOR
21. John Maine, SP, BAL
22. Erwin Santana, SP, ANA
23. Mike Fontonet, 2B, BAL
24. Jason Bartlett, SS, MIN
25. Joe Borchard, OF, CHW

Today's Fantasy Rx: Bobby Crosby easily should be the AL Roto Rookie of the Year, although expect challenges from Gerald Laird, Joe Mauer, and perhaps Jeremy Reed and David DeJesus depending on when the two outfielders win starting jobs. Among pitchers, Doug Waechter and Matt Riley appear fairly evenly matched, and they both appear a little ahead of Grant Balfour at this time. However, I don't expect any pitcher to approach double-digit value unless Jesse Crain or a similar pitcher emerges as a closer, whereas even Ross Gload and Kevin Cash could reach that level with a little luck this season.