Today's Fantasy Rx

Over 850 pitchers received invitations to spring training this year due to their place on the 40-man roster, their contract as a minor league free agent, or as a reward for prospects impressing organizational management due to their performance in recent years. Through yesterday, 806 of these pitchers actually have appeared in Major League games.

While we've kept track of games finished data for years to look at possible closers who pitch exactly one inning at the end of games, we decided to track QA data this spring. I evaluated both relievers and any starter completing five innings or more under our QA method. The one necessary change was that I only evaluated pitchers on a 4-point scale since G-F data rarely is reported for spring training games, so I simply removed G-F from consideration. However, since pitchers should be able to dominate opponents during the spring, especially younger batters in "B" games, I saw no reason to drop the DOM qualification to a QA of 3.

The other change we felt necessary was to treat starters who pitch less than five innings as relievers, and therefore judge them by relief standards. Even if someone pitches 4.2 IP with 10 ER, an appearance in which he likely would have reached 5 IP if he'd pitched decently, we still see more value in evaluating these pitchers under the stricter standards of relievers(a strikeout per inning and no walks or homers allowed).

Due to the limited number of innings compiled by even the most prolific pitchers during Spring Training, we're also ignoring the skill qualifications for a 1 score, and instead focusing on pitchers with an ax rating.

As we expected, several pitchers emerged as likely 2004 contributors based on their performances through the first couple weeks of spring training.

Fifteen pitchers currently hold ax ratings, and I'll provide a brief look now at each player's upside. Somewhat surprisingly, the only pitcher from this group who appears assured of leaving spring training as his team's closer is Mariano Rivera, although fellow Yankee Tom Gordon also qualifies, posting perhaps the most dominant performance of any AL reliever. While we recommend Rivera very strongly, rostering Gordon also is a good idea since he'll pick up any extra save opportunities.

Following Gordon, another half-dozen setup men have impressed us this spring, and each of them should receive some save opportunities by the end of the season. Arizona's Jose Valverde is the best bet, especially in keeper leagues, due to the approaching departure of Matt Mantei from the Diamondbacks no later than next winter. Cincinnati's Ryan Wagner also should inherit the Reds' closer's job if the they manage to deal Danny Graves at some point.

Robb Nen's continuing injury problems leave Matt Herges and Felix Rodriguez in theoretical competition for saves in San Francisco, but Herges' dominant spring gives him an edge. Despite a history of inconsistent control, he looks like a great target right now. Giants' teammates Jason Christiansen now looks healthy for the first time in a few years, and considering his solid skills before his arm troubles, he merits a look in deeper leagues.

Joe Nathan likely will emerge as the closer in Minnesota thanks to a relatively impressive performance this spring, however J.C. Romero and Jesse Crain have posted even better numbers. I definitely see a high possibility of a bullpen-by-committee here, although the best idea might just involve leaving Nathan for the ninth inning while employing Romero and Crain as a potentially dominant setup duo.

San Diego's Bart Miadich ranks among spring training leaders in strikeouts, a remarkable accomplishment for a non-roster reliever. If Miadich can limit the number of walks he allows, he offers more upside to the Padres than Jay Witasick, Antonio Osuna, or even Scott Linebrink. The unexpected departure of Rod Beck from San Diego's camp probably just means that the team will keep Rule 5 pick Jason Szuminski or a second left-hander, but Miadich definitely deserves consideration. Of course, the Padres also could choose to send him to Portland until they need an injury replacement, so I wouldn't draft Miadich now before the late Ultra rounds even in the deepest leagues.

Two other right-handers have posted solid performances in five appearances this year. Anaheim's Scott Dunn and the Mets' Orber Moreno both probably belong in the majors right now. Unfortunately, I see almost no chance for Dunn to break camp with the Angels given their fantastic bullpen depth. Moreno at least could emerge as an option for New York, but if the team breaks camp with a fifth starter, I don't believe Moreno deserves the last bullpen spot over Dan Wheeler, who solidified the Mets' relief corps in the second half of 2003. They could carry both players if the take 12 pitchers, which seems a decent possibility, however Moreno isn't a significantly better roto risk than Miadich at the moment.

Two unheralded lefties and an unretired veteran fill out the current list of fifteen. Boston's Tim Hamulack, a Seattle refugee, holds a slight edge on Mark Malaska and Bobby M. Jones for the last spot in the Red Sox's bullpen, however he certainly isn't guaranteed to hold a job for any length of time even if he breaks camp in the majors. The more intriguing options here are Milwaukee's Chris Michalak and Kansas City's Greg Swindell, both former major leaguers who spent last year in the minors. Michalak's impressive spring gives him a good shot at the Brewers' lefty relief job, especially if Chris Capuano and Wayne Franklin both earn rotation spots. Swindell similarly seems preferred to Jamie Cerda by the Royals. Unfortunately, neither pitcher looks like a good fantasy selection due to their relative ineffectiveness in recent years, but they at least merit watching over the next few weeks.

Twenty-nine pitchers have pitched exactly 1 IP to finish at least three different spring games, a list that includes many players discussed above, and eleven of those twenty-nine have finished at least four games. Only two pitchers have finished more than four games, Cubs' closer Joe Borowski, who's finished five games thus far, and Tom Gordon, discussed above, who the Yankees have used to close out seven different games.

Of the remaining nine pitchers to finish four games, Oakland's Lou Pote and Arizona's Brandon Medders have been cut, and I already discussed Scott Dunn and Matt Herges above. Eddie Oropesa, the sole lefty, doesn't seem like a particularly strong bet to make the team in San Diego, forget about seeing many save opportunities. Bryan Corey, in camp with the Cubs, is behind Borowski, LaTroy Hawkins, and Kyle Farnsworth in the competition for save opportunities, and he'll need injuries elsewhere on the staff even if he wants to make the team. He deserves another chance in the majors and could surprise, but he isn't a good fantas gamble now.

The three right-handers that currently look like decent sleepers are Montreal's Chad Cordero, Baltimore's Mike DeJean, and St. Louis' Mike Lincoln. If Rocky Biddle struggles for the Expos, Cordero appears almost certain to emerge as the closer ahead of Luis Ayala, and while you generally shouldn't target Montreal pitchers due to their hitter-friendly home parks, Cordero certainly could help save-needy teams. DeJean similarly is the only logical option for the Orioles if Jorge Julio slumps. Considering his closing history, he definitely belongs in someone's bullpen in almost every AL league.

Mike Lincoln's situation is somewhat more complicated. The only four pitchers still in Cardinals camp to finish games are Lincoln, Cal Eldred, Julian Tavarez, and Jason Isringhausen. Based on their skills and recent performances, I expect the St. Louis pecking order for saves to go in reverse order of their GF totals this spring, so that if Izzy injures himself again, Tavarez gets the first shot, then Eldred, and then Lincoln. A surprisingly strong showing from Lincoln or Eldred could change this scenario, but any owner who drafts Izzy first should look to Tavarez for saves' insurance, although even he isn't worth more than endgame consideration.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Last year I recommended Tom Gordon in this space, and I again advise AL owners to select him, particularly those that own Rivera. Gordon should earn $5-10 even if he remains the Yankees' top set-up man all year, and his value obviously will jump if Rivera returns to the DL.

The one other pitcher who I need to mention now is Cincinnati's Jose Acevedo, who we heavily touted two years ago following his impressive 2001 debut. He again looks like a strong sleeper as he's the only pitcher thus far to post three straight QA scores of 4 as a starter. As he owns a 2.45 ERA on an 11:0 K:BB in 11 IP with 8 H and 0 HR allowed, Acevedo should be guaranteed a rotation spot for the Reds, and since I still believe he can post double-digit roto value any given year, I see no problem in bidding him to no less than $5 in spring drafts.