Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to the FSIC National League rosters here.

Owners: Jessica & Tim Polko
Site: Rotohelp
Split: $294H/$84P = 78/22.
Reserve roster: Tom Goodwin, Ryan Freel, J.J. Davis, and Chris Capuano.

Nice pick: Eric Gagne, Rd. 1; netting the top closer and potentially best player in the league with the 11th overall pick was a stroke of luck.
Top sleeper: J.J. Davis, Rd. 21; if Pittsburgh gives him an everyday job, he should hit 20 homers.
Potential bust: Adam Dunn, Rd. 4; poor overall batting skills could lead to a terrible average that negates his quantitative contribution.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): None.
Early good/bad luck: Craig Wilson, Rd. 11, should see more playing time than expected, however Rod Beck, Rd. 22, hasn't pitched this spring, and Tony Batista, Rd. 8, contracted chicken pox, one of the flukiest "injuries" during spring training in years.
Category to trade: Starting position players to teams that need quantitative help.

Forfeiting 22 points on draft day obviously qualifies as a risky strategy, particularly after we bungled the same general premise last year. However, grabbing Gagne provided us with an unexpectedly strong pitching base in ERA, WHIP, and Saves. Yet if even a couple of our middle relievers struggle, we could plummet in the qualitative categories, and we aren't guaranteed more than a half-dozen points in saves.

Selecting every member of Montreal's likely starting lineup aside from Nick Johnson and Terrmel Sledge also could backfire badly, especially if offensive levels drop in Puerto Rico. Even a failure to trade a deal a couple Expos in July could condemn us to a standings' drop, potentially even into the second division, if Montreal's offensive output drops in the second half as expected. The lack of an obvious speedster also could create problems in stolen bases, and guys like Dunn and Batista might be significant BA drags.

Summary: While our roster probably possesses less upside than the players on any other team, we still believe a top 3 finish here is fairly likely, but only good luck and the lack of a particularly dominant team will insure first or second place.

Today's Fantasy Rx: In the latter rounds of a straight draft, particularly in leagues that roster at least moderately deep benches of 3-4 players, always draft a couple of middle relievers to give you a decent qualitative base with possible upside in saves. Also consider adding a couple of young platoon or bench players who could emerge as full-time contributors with good performances or as injury replacements. Only reserves at the beginning of last year, Scott Podsednik and Morgan Ensberg, among several others, developed into significant contributors in nearly every fantasy league, and at least a dozen players in the majors appear in similar circumstances this spring, such as Jason Lane, Chase Utley, Mike Cuddyer, and Juan Uribe.