Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to Thursday's article for a brief look at our FSICNL history, as well as a detailed discussion of how we prepared for last Sunday's draft.

Also, please take a look at yesterday's article for discussion of the first half of the draft, which includes how we assembled the majority of our offense.

After 14 rounds, roughly half the 27-round draft, we owned only one pitcher, Dodgers' closer Eric Gagne, but our only opening on offense was our UT slot. Once Brad Lidge fell in the fourteenth round, we knew we needed to begin selecting our pitchers rather than continuing to draft potential bargain offensive players.

We planned to draft ten pitchers, highlighted by one top closer, likely Borowski since we didn't expect Gagne to fall to us and we didn't want to overdraft Smoltz or Wagner. The safest middle relievers in the draft included LaTroy Hawkins, Guillermo Mota, and Rheal Cormier, as well as Mike Koplove, Tim Spooneybarger, and Chris Capuano based on their 2003 skills. Since we can't add a free agent until after the season starts, we didn't want to risk Capuano winning a rotation slot, so we selected three more relievers to complete our wish list: Rod Beck, Akinori Otsuka, and Matt Herges. The latter is the likely candidate to close for San Francisco, if Robb Nen can't pitch, and Beck will inherit at least some Padres' save opportunities if Trevor Hoffman falters or San Diego manages any long winning streaks. Otsuka, who dominated Japan, is a moderately risky choice, but his upside could echo Mota's dominant 2003 performance. If we missed any of these pitchers, we planned to take A-ball prospects highly unlikely to receive big leagues innings this year.

In the 15th and 16th rounds, we grabbed Hawkins and Mota since we believed they would leave the draft board far before the others, especially with the chance of Hawkins potentially closing in Chicago at some point. We planned to take Ugueth Urbina with our next selection, but another owner selected him four picks earlier to a round of objections.

Last year, the commissioner allowed the selection of Kenny Lofton relatively early, thereby defining two unwritten rules. First, free agents are acceptable picks, but you only receive their stats if they sign with an NL team. Second, you don't need to meet any position requirements over the course of the draft; one owner didn't even draft a second catcher this year and could take all zeroes for the slot if he so desired.

Unaware of the Lofton precedent, the new owners complained about the pick, and though the Urbina selection stood, we're thankful to Roto Rank's representative for keeping us from the crowd's ire. Brady Clark also left the board prior to our choice, but we happily settled for Herges and then took Keith Ginter with our 18th round pick. His new three-year deal should insure he finds regular playing time between second, third, and the outfield.

As Kerry Robinson, Endy Chavez, Freddy Sanchez, Chase Utley, and Jason Lane all vanished before our 19th round pick, we knew we needed to grab our offensive backups then. We next selected Tom Goodwin, who likely will receive significant playing time in place of Juan Rivera in our outfield. In the 20th round, we took Ryan Freel, who gives us a nice alternative to Aaron Miles. One round later, we grabbed J.J. Davis as our third reserve position player since he could hit 20 homers if Jason Bay's injury problems open an everyday job.

With our offense solidified, we ranked our list of remaining pitchers in the order we expected other owners might draft them: Beck, Cormier, Otsuka, Koplove, Spooneybarger, and Capuano. While I could attempt to build suspense here by naming the players who went in between our picks, we somehow managed to roster all six pitchers left on our board. Other than opting for Gagne instead of someone like Borowski, we drafted all nine pitchers we targeted prior to the draft.

Rotohelp's Drafted 2004 FSICNL Roster
C: Craig Wilson and Brian Schneider
CR: Adam Dunn, Tony Batista, and Sean Burroughs
MI: Jose Vidro, Orlando Cabrera, and Aaron Miles
OF: Richard Hidalgo, Brad Wilkerson, Carl Everett, Marlon Byrd, and Juan Rivera
UT: Keith Ginter
Bench: Tom Goodwin, Ryan Freel, and J.J. Davis

Pitchers: Eric Gagne, LaTroy Hawkins, Guillermo Mota, Matt Herges, Rod Beck, Rheal Cormier, Akinori Otsuka, Mike Koplove, Tim Spooneybarger, and Chris Capuano.

Obviously we're pleased with our performance, particularly after last year's debacle in which we shifted towards this strategy mid-draft after all the starting pitching we wanted went early. Although we didn't draft a particularly prolific offense, we feel confident that we'll finish among the top 3 teams in HR, RBI, and Runs. We should rank among the top half-dozen teams in batting average and steals, and if we can deal a quantitative excess to upgrade one of our current starters to someone like Abreu or Kendall, we also could pull 10 or more points in those categories.

Barring disaster, we easily should finish first in ERA and WHIP for the second straight season. Gagne and Mota essentially insure at least 50 saves, and if we can find another two-dozen saves from our other seven pitching spots, at least 10 points in saves is a reasonable expectation.

Since last place finishes in wins and strikeouts still give us one point in each category, we should finish with 80 or more points, which would have given us at least third place in each of the last two years. That projection rises to 86 points if we manage to finish top-3 in batting average and steals, and if we somehow luck into first place finishes in eight categories, our team would plateau at 98 points.

Attaining even 80 points will require significant in-season maneuvering, especially on offense given our seven Expos. Fortunately, we believe our hitting depth and low-risk pitching strategy at least should boost us into the first division for the first time, and hopefully we'll break into the top quarter if everything goes right.

I'll spend the next two days reviewing the FSICNL draft objectively in a similar fashion to my analysis in previous years of the more established inter-site competitions, LABR and Tout Wars.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While we were impressed at the obvious preparation conducted by our competitors in this draft, in the past we've seen many owners caught unprepared in the later rounds of both straight drafts and Ultra reserve drafts. Make sure you compile a long list of alternative selections when drafting in relatively deep non-auction leagues just in case other owners steal all your preferred sleepers.