Today's Fantasy Rx

Every year a couple dozen players receive at least a brief look in the majors almost solely due to their place on a major league 40-man roster. Unfortunately, other than top prospects and Rule 5 picks, we generally spend little time examining any players who spent all of the previous season playing below AA. Reviewing the impressive number of youngsters who rather unexpectedly reach majors each year convinced us that these players deserve more attention, so I will elaborate on the fantasy prospects of many of these players over the next few days.

While I recognize I can't provide a complete list of players likely to contribute due to the frequent changes on many 40-man rosters, not to mention the extreme uncertainty regarding in-season roster management on each team, hopefully these snapshots will provide you with another look at many largely unknown players.

Atlanta Braves
Position Players:
Onil Joseph, 21, OF; B:R, T:R.
143/483 for .296/.349/.379 with 4 HR, 47 RBI, 66 R, 32/53 SB%,
and a 37:89 BB:K for A Rome(SAL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+ starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2010.

The former Miguel Mota remains a respectable outfield prospect even after gaining a year in agegate. Unfortunately, not only does he appear at least three years from the majors, Atlanta only has one outfield slot available normally thanks to the Jones boys long-term deals. As neither his 60% SB success ratio nor a .82 contact rate indicates much immediate upside, Joseph doesn't belong on any fantasy team this year.

T.J. Pena, 22, SS; B:R, T:R.
105/405 for .259/.304/.328 with 4 HR, 30 RBI, 43 R, 17/29 SB%,
and a 24:82 BB:K for A+ Myrtle Beach(Car).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league backup by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2010.

The son of Royals' manager and former big league backstop Tony Pena, T.J. doesn't appear to possess enough offensive prowess to reach the majors quickly. His defensive gifts and family connections should insure he sees some big league time, however unless his speed and plate patience continue to develop, he'll peak as a defensive replacement near the end of this decade. Pena certainly isn't a viable fantasy pick this spring.

Scott Thorman, 22, 1B; B:L, T:R.
108/445 for .243/.311/.391 with 12 HR, 56 RBI, 44 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 42:79 BB:K for A+ Myrtle Beach(Car).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2011.

Despite singling in the Futures' Game after an unexpected last-second invite as a roster replacement, Thorman otherwise compiled a rather forgettable set of stats. All his averages dropped at least fifty points each following his promotion from the Sally League, and he shouldn't reach the majors aside from a possible cup-of-coffee before 2006, especially with Adam LaRoche, a superior prospect, only debuting this spring in Atlanta. Respectable power potential and decent plate discipline simply aren't sufficient to earn a first base prospect much roto consideration in any league, so wait at least one more year before rostering Thorman.

Pitchers:
Blaine Boyer, 22, P:R, B:R.
12-8 on a 115:58 K:BB in 136.2 IP over 26 GS(30G)
with 146 H, 5 HR, and a 3.69 ERA for A Rome(SAL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+ starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2010.

If Boyer builds on this impressive return to the rotation after a year in the bullpen, he could emerge as one of the Braves' best starting prospects. He improved his control while remaining fairly dominant, yet I also can't even rank Boyer among the top dozen Atlanta youngsters capable of contributing on their 2004 pitching staff. Even if Dan Meyer and Macay McBride go in your draft, Boyer still doesn't warrant a minor league selection in any fantasy league.

Jose Capellan, 23, P:R, B:R.
1-2 on a 32:19 K:BB in 47.1 IP over 12 GS(14G)
with 43 H, 2 HR, and a 3.80 ERA for A Rome(SAL).
0-1 on a 17:8 K:BB in 17 IP over 5 GS
with 18 H, 0 HR, and a 2.65 ERA for R Braves(GCL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: Roster filler.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2010.

Spring training reports already suggest Braves' management finds Capellan very impressive, and although I doubt he'll break camp in the majors, he owns one of the best fastballs in the system and could give Atlanta a power reliever unfamiliar to almost all major league hitters. Of course, Capellan also didn't even post great skills this season, nearly two years after his Tommy John surgery, so the proper path for him likely involves more time in minor league rotations to develop his arm strength, durability, and overall skills. I expect Capellan to emerge as a solid reliever for the Braves within the next couple of years, but drafting him now in any league appears highly unnecessary.

Florida Marlins
Position Players:
None.

Pitchers:
Ronald Belizario, 21, P:R, B:R.
1-2 on a 13:8 K:BB in 18.1 IP over 4 GS(6G)
with 20 H, 0 HR, and a 4.91 ERA for A+ Jupiter(FSL).
5-1 on a 45:18 K:BB in 48 IP over 8 GS(10G)
with 41 H, 3 HR, and a 3.00 ERA for A Greensboro(SAL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+ starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2010.

Alternately spelled "Belizario" and "Belisario" even on Florida's website, the right-hander's inconsistency in pitching similarly has the Marlins baffled. His performance in the Sally League indicates a potentially bright future, especially if he shifts to the bullpen, but his unimpressive statistical history strongly suggests he needs at least two years of seasoning, making him a poor fantasy pick now.

Kevin Cave, 23, P:R, B:R.
2-2 and 23 Saves on a 43:14 K:BB in 45 IP over 39 G
with 36 H, 0 HR, and a 1.60 ERA for A+ Jupiter(FSL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league closer by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: Roster filler.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2009.

Cave's skills suggest he might actually buck the normal path of minor league reliever to big league middle reliever since his dominance and control combine to indicate closer potential. He also stands a better chance of appearing in the majors this year than most A-ball pitchers, but he still doesn't merit a pick this spring since he easily could spend all year in the minors.

Lincoln Holdzkom, 21, P:R, B:R.
0-2 and 2 Saves on a 20:7 K:BB in 14.2 IP over 13 G
with 9 H, 0 HR, and a 3.07 ERA for A+ Jupiter(FSL).
1-4 on a 74:27 K:BB in 57 IP over 43 G
with 36 H, 0 HR, and a 2.84 ERA for A Greensboro(SAL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league closer by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2010.

A weak AFL performance gives us no reason to consider drafting Holdzkom, especially since he easily could return to Jupiter at the start of the year. His poor walk rate at Greensboro also troubles me, so don't plan on Holdzkom meriting a spot on fantasy rosters sooner than 2006.

Montreal Expos
Position Players:
None.

Pitchers:
None.

New York Mets
Position Players:
Aaron Baldiris, 21, 3B; B:R, T:R.
123/393 for .313/.396/.427 with 6 HR, 68 RBI, 55 R, 13/18 SB%,
and a 51:55 BB:K for A Capital City(SAL).
32/88 for .364/.451/.466 with 0 HR, 18 RBI, 2/4 SB%,
and a 14:13 BB:K for A- Brooklyn(NYP).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $25 by 2009.

The combination of unimpressive power totals and the presence of David Wright one rung ahead of Baldiris on the Mets' minor league ladder keeps us from recommending him in most leagues, however if you plan in a mixed league with a deep list of rookies, consider him. His plate discipline and defense both suggest he could shoot through almost any other farm system, and he certainly still could develop promising power. Baldiris ranks with the game's more unheralded prospects right now, making him someone to watch in 2004.

Kazuo Matsui, 28, SS; B:S, T:R.
179/587 for .305/.365/.549 with 33 HR, 84 RBI, 13/23 SB%,
and a 55:124 BB:K for Seibu(Japan).
Appropriate 2004 Role: Major league starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter in 2004.
2004 Fantasy Potential: $20.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $35 by 2006.

Maybe I've grown slightly gun-shy after Hideki Matsui's unimpressive homer totals last year, but Kazuo Matsui seems somewhat overrated right now. The good news is that adding Matsui gives the Mets one of the majors' strongest middle infields in the game, and he at least should post solid power numbers. However, his poor stolen base percentage in Japan last year is very troubling, and over the last four years we've seen his contact rate drop from .89 to .85, .81, and finally .79 in 2004. That trend is scary and suggests the potential for an abrupt BA drop. I remain willing to bid $20 here on principle, I expect him to win Rookie of the Year in a somewhat weak field, and I'll be happy to admit my mistake if Matsui follows in Ichiro's steps to post a $40 season, but exercising caution here certainly is the prudent move.

Pitchers:
None.

Philadelphia Phillies
Position Players:
Ryan Howard, 24, 1B; B:L, T:L.
149/490 for .304/.374/.514 with 23 HR, 82 RBI, 67 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 50:151 BB:K for A+ Clearwater(FSL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2006.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $30 by 2009.

As neither Howard nor Jim Thome can play anywhere save first base, either Thome will head back to Cleveland a year or two before his contract ends following the 2008 seasons or the Phillies will decide Howard isn't untouchable. Of course, the combination of his 56 extra-base hits and respectable walk rate ranks Howard's offensive upside with any player in the game. However, I'm not that impressed when a 23-year-old dominated the Florida State league. Considering Thome's presence at first base, drafting Howard this year is a mistake, especially since his high strikeout totals suggests he could struggle in the upper minors. Howard just seems far more likely to peak at a level near Russ Branyan rather than an All-Star like Thome.

Pitchers:
Elizardo Ramirez, 21, P:R, B:R.
13-9 on a 101:33 K:BB in 157.1 IP over 25 GS(27G)
with 181 H, 4 HR, and a 3.78 ERA for A+ Clearwater(FSL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #2 starter by 2010.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $25 by 2012.

His consistent control is impressive, particularly since his 73:2 K:BB in 73 IP in the Gulf Coast League in 2003 is so unbelievable it looks like a typo. Ramirez's problem is that his skills suggest he could struggle in AA, and more importantly for fantasy owners, he ranks as no better than the fourth best starting prospect in an organization that also possesses one of the deepest rotations in baseball. Given his age and command, Ramirez could shoot through the system, yet the uncertainty regarding opportunities in the majors for Philadelphia makes him a bad player to pick this spring.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While I've indicated that many of the players discussed in these articles possess double-digit upside, their places in the lower reaches of most farm systems make them incredibly risky picks. Even if someone like Capellan unexpectedly shoots to the majors in the very near future, wait until he establishes an extended track record of solid skills before rostering him. Matsui is the only safe bet here, and I suspect he'll cost a ton in many leagues.