Today's Fantasy Rx

Every year a couple dozen players receive at least a brief look in the majors almost solely due to their place on a major league 40-man roster. Unfortunately, other than top prospects and Rule 5 picks, we generally spend little time examining any players who spent all of the previous season playing below AA. Reviewing the impressive number of youngsters who rather unexpectedly reach majors each year convinced us that these players deserve more attention, so I will elaborate on the fantasy prospects of many of these players over the next few days.

While I recognize I can't provide a complete list of players likely to contribute due to the frequent changes on many 40-man rosters, not to mention the extreme uncertainty regarding in-season roster management on each team, hopefully these snapshots will provide you with another look at many largely unknown players.

Anaheim Angels
Position Players:
None.

Pitchers:
Tim Bittner, 23, P:L, B:L.
5-0 on a 28:14 K:BB in 32.2 IP over 6 GS
with 18 H, 0 HR, and a .28 ERA for A+ Rancho Cucamonga(Cal).
3-3 and 1 Save on a 23:12 K:BB in 30 IP over 17 G
with 18 H, 3 HR, and a 3.60 ERA for A+ Winston-Salem(Car).
4-4 on a 45:26 K:BB in 50.1 IP over 10 GS
with 45 H, 4 HR, and a 3.40 ERA for A Kannapolis(SAL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2010.

Acquired from the White Sox in the Scott Schoeneweis deal last summer, Bittner moved back into the rotation with Anaheim and demonstrated solid all-around skills over his last half-dozen starts. Following his two fairly strong initial seasons, I see no reason why Bittner shouldn't remain on path to make his major league debut in late 2005 if he remains successful at the upper levels of the minors. Of course, the roughly dozen starters ahead of him in the Angels system makes him a poor fantasy pick since we don't know when he'll receive an opportunity in a big league rotation, but he certainly could warrant more consideration after this season.

Jake Woods, 22, P:L, B:L.
12-7 on a 109:54 K:BB in 171.1 IP over 28 GS
with 178 H, 9 HR, and a 4.04 ERA for A+ Rancho Cucamonga(Cal).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2009.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2011.

Perhaps Woods will reverse two seasons of slipping strikeout rates while also reducing his hit rate at AA, however pitching for AA Arkansas in the Texas League this year isn't a great place to accomplish either goal. While his solid command should insure his continued rise through the system, he easily could slide into middle relief at some point. Given his uncertain future, fantasy owners should ignore him for now.

Oakland Athletics
Position Players:
None.

Pitchers:
None.

Seattle Mariners
Position Players:
Ryan Christianson, 22, C; B:R, T:R.
2/10 for .200/.333/.200 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:3 BB:K for R Mariners(AZL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2009.

The 11th overall pick in the 1999 draft, Christianson simply hasn't developed as expected. His promising doubles' total and decent walk rate largely disappeared when he reached AA San Antonio in 2002, however he also barely has played since 2001. A broken foot and labrum surgery limited him to less than 300 at-bats over the last two years, and he needed that development time. At least he remains quite young and should enjoy at least a respectable big league career, but I can think of a dozen other catching prospects that appear closer to contributing than Christianson. Wait to see how he rebounds before adding him to your team.

Pitchers:
None.

Texas Rangers
Position Players:
Rusty Greer, 35, OF; B:L, T:L.
No 2003 stats.
Appropriate 2004 Role: Roster filler.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2005.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2007.

Realistically, Greer's career could be over since his contract expires after the season, however despite multiple surgeries since he last played in July of 2002, he appears on target to return as soon as the second half of this year. While he can't stay healthy and likely will own little power once he returns, a superb batting eye could make him valuable to any team looking a decent OBP threat at DH. Greer isn't worth even a dollar flyer in any league due to the possibility of him retiring in the near future, but I also am not ready to write him off quite yet.

Pitchers:
None.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Both of the Angels' pitchers, as well as Ryan Christianson, could contribute to fantasy teams within the next few years. Of course, don't draft them since none of them appears likely to see more than the briefest cup-of-coffee this year, and I don't imagine any of them emerging as a top prospect.

Looking over each team's extended roster also suggested a slightly different topic that warrants discussion.

Colorado purchased the contract of Scott Elarton last week, adding the former prospect to their 40-man roster. GM Dan O'Dowd attempted to explain the move by commenting to the Rocky Mountain News that "It's an indication of our respect for all the work he has done in the off-season to get himself to this point...It's a way for us to show Scott we believe in what he is doing".

While the Rockies still have one open 40-man slot, this move simply makes no sense at all and perhaps illustrates a larger problem in Colorado.

Adding Elarton to the roster guarantees him at least a sixth of a $480,000 contract, and if they keep him as expected, he should receive the entire amount.

Yet Elarton hasn't remained healthy and effective in any of the last three seasons. Colorado paid him $1.4M in 2002 for exactly zero innings, and he cost another $300K last year for fewer than a dozen terrible starts in the majors. Plus, given his injury history, he could hurt his arm again at any time, and even if they move him to their 60-day DL, thereby vacating the 40-man roster spot, he still will cost them nearly a half million dollars this year.

Now I don't intend to specifically pick on Elarton; he certainly could enjoy a lengthy and productive major league career, but he simply hasn't earned this reward through any on-the-field action. Considering Colorado management's seemingly constant complaints regarding their uncertain financial resources, spending a half-million dollars as a goodwill gesture simply doesn't appear logical. Even if he earns a spot on the 25-man roster by the end of camp, they might be able to add another player via trade or waivers during the next month. The fortnight around Opening Day is a great time to try to slip someone else through waivers, and the Rockies then might be able to snag a quality talent while perhaps outrighting a stalled prospect or two like AA outfielders Choo Freeman or Jorge Piedra. Not only does placing Elarton on the 40-man roster now remove an extra month of flexibility, the Rockies receive no on-the-field benefit from this action.

The most obvious example of roster mismanagement in recent months is Pittsburgh's insane decision to open three 40-man roster spots last fall and then not fill them until nearly spring training. Opening those three spots cost the team Matt Bruback, Walter Young, Duaner Sanchez, and Matt Guerrer on waivers, as well as five solid prospects in the Rule 5 draft, including Chris Shelton, the Pirates' best hitting prospect. In the same way that the Rockies' decision to purchase Elarton's contract now easily could hamstring the team's position flexibility and finances, cannibalizing your player development system to protect waiver bait like Jason Boyd is insane.

I singled out Boyd primarily due to his recent guilty plea to a misdemeanor battery charge, but he didn't even pitch well last year. He compiled a 4.30 ERA on a 31:26 K:BB in 52.1 IP for Cleveland, and then Pittsburgh grabbed him off waivers after the season concluded. The larger problem is that despite his legal troubles, he also appears more likely to perform above replacement level this year than fellow Pirates Humberto Cota, Rob Mackowiak, and Abraham Nunez. Craig Wilson, J.J. Davis, and even Tony Alvarez also offer more upside than players like Mondesi and Simon, so Pittsburgh could have fielded at least no worse a team this year for less money while keeping Bruback, Guerrier, and the five Rule 5 picks they lost.

Decisions like the Pirates' signing of another class of veteran position players and the Rockies' giving Elarton an $80K bonus for good rehab work might result from ownership decrees, but they merely look like the most egregious examples of teams' failures to employ a basic resource to its full potential. The 40-man roster can act as a great leveling device when employed properly, and teams like Oakland and Minnesota frequently add quality players off waivers. Unfortunately, many teams continue to make questionable moves when both adding players to and removing them from the 40-man roster. Better management in this area at least could help teams like Pittsburgh and Colorado rebuild slightly faster by maximizing the available talent in their respective organizations.