Today's Fantasy Rx

Every year a couple dozen players receive at least a brief look in the majors almost solely due to their place on a major league 40-man roster. Unfortunately, other than top prospects and Rule 5 picks, we generally spend little time examining any players who spent all of the previous season playing below AA. Reviewing the impressive number of youngsters who rather unexpectedly reach majors each year convinced us that these players deserve more attention, so I will elaborate on the fantasy prospects of many of these players over the next few days.

While I recognize I can't provide a complete list of players likely to contribute due to the frequent changes on many 40-man rosters, not to mention the extreme uncertainty regarding in-season roster management on each team, hopefully these snapshots will provide you with another look at many largely unknown players.

Chicago White Sox
Position Players:
Ruddy Yan, 22, 2B; B:S, T:R.
128/485 for .264/.328/.311 with 2 HR, 24 RBI, 85 R, 76/89 SB%,
and a 47:73 BB:K for A+ Winston-Salem(Car).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league backup by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2010.

Yan owns prodigious speed, which insures he belongs on roto teams if he ever reaches the majors. Unfortunately, he gained a year in agegate, and his complete lack of power led to the White Sox keeping him in the Carolina League for a second straight season, where his steals dropped and his contract rate declined. As I just don't see him reaching Chicago in the near future, his age and level make him a poor rookie pick in any league right now.

Pitchers:
Shingo Takatsu, 35, P:R, B:R.
2-3 and 34 Saves on a 26:21 K:BB in 34 IP over 44 G
with 42 H, 7 HR, and a 3.00 ERA for Yakult(Japan).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AAAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Short reliever by 2005.
2004 Fantasy Potential: $5.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2005.

Mr. Zero gives the White Sox their first Japanese player, however despite team protestations that Takatsu could close, I instead expect to see fairly weak numbers. His 2003 skills were terrible, and while he pitched very effectively in the four previous seasons, he also owns some history of poor skills back in the '90s. Considering his age and falling dominance, gambling on Takatsu is a terrible decision until he proves he can adapt to big league baseball over several weeks of the season. Shooting for a dozen saves with him is a bad move unless you can leave Takatsu reserved indefinitely.

Ryan Wing, 21, P:L, B:L.
9-7 on a 107:67 K:BB in 145 IP over 26 GS
with 116 H, 9 HR, and a 2.98 ERA for A+ Winston-Salem(Car).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2009.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2011.

Chicago's second round pick in 2001, he played with fellow top draftee Kris Honel in each of the last three years. Somewhat surprisingly, Wing improved his control in the Carolina League despite a lower strikeout rate, and if he ever establishes consistent mechanics, he could shoot to the majors. He ranks as the most impressive lefty in the system after Neal Cotts, but he doesn't merit fantasy consideration quite yet when you instead could draft any of the dozens of pitching prospects who own both solid strikeout and walk rates.

Cleveland Indians
Position Players:
Ivan Ochoa, 21, SS; B:R, T:R.
75/296 for .253/.336/.314 with 0 HR, 23 RBI, 42 R, 28/38 SB%,
and a 31:67 BB:K for A+ Kinston(Car).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2006.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2009.

Cleveland rather unexpectedly protected Ochoa this winter despite a crowded 40-man roster, however considering Ochoa likely could handle shortstop in the majors right now, I can't fault this decision. While he owns almost no power, consistently respectable walk rates suggest a better foundation of plate discipline than most young glove wizards. Of course, his need for at least two more years of seasoning, coupled with an eventual battle with Johnny Peralta and/or Brandon Phillips for the Indians' shortstop job, makes Ochoa a poor roto pick this spring.

Pitchers:
Mariano Gomez, 21, P:L, B:L.
6-4 on a 69:38 K:BB in 100.2 IP over 18 GS
with 91 H, 11 HR, and a 3.67 ERA for A+ Kinston(Car).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2009.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2011.

Keeping Gomez over Rule 5 pick Matt J. White was a good move since a potentially impressive lefty starter is generally more valuable than a left-hander already slotted as a reliever. Gomez doesn't demonstrate great dominance, however his consistent control should insure a lengthy major league career. If he handles the promotion to AA without obvious problems, he might merit fantasy consideration a year from now.

Detroit Tigers
Position Players:
Ryan Raburn, 22, 3B; B:R, T:R.
72/325 for .222/.332/.394 with 12 HR, 56 RBI, 52 R, 2/3 SB%,
and a 45:89 BB:K for A+ Lakeland(FSL).
20/57 for .351/.431/.632 with 3 HR, 12 RBI, 14 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 6:14 BB:K for A+ West Michigan(Mid).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2009.

While Raburn could develop into a productive infielder for Detroit, he looks like an incredibly risky selection for fantasy players this year. Raburn hasn't demonstrated consistent plate discipline or much pure hitting skill, and he owns essentially no speed. Considering the Tigers' recent problems in properly developing middle infielders, wait until Raburn succeeds at AA before rostering him on any team.

Pitchers:
Roberto Novoa, 24, P:R, B:R.
4-5 on a 71:25 K:BB in 99 IP over 15 GS(19G)
with 93 H, 8 HR, and a 3.73 ERA for A+ Lakeland(FSL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: .
Long-term Upside & ETA: .
2004 Fantasy Potential: .
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: .

Novoa may remain starting for another couple years in the minors, but his age and questionable historical dominance suggest he'll head to relief by the time he reaches Detroit. While he easily could spend the second half in the majors if he impresses at AA Erie, I rarely see a reason to gamble on a middle relief prospect. Wait until he demonstrates solid skills in the majors over several outings before even considering Nova.

Kansas City Royals
Position Players:
None.

Pitchers:
Brian Bass, 22, P:R, B:R.
9-8 on a 119:43 K:BB in 152.1 IP over 26 GS
with 129 H, 7 HR, and a 2.84 ERA for A+ Wilmington(Car).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2010.

If Bass had posted these stats at AA or even struck out an extra batter per game, I would recommend him as a quality minor league pick since he already ranks as one of the more promising young Royals' pitchers. However, he isn't particularly projectable and will need to maintain very good control to succeed as he advances through the system. He deserves more attention than many A-ball pitchers, but he doesn't belong on fantasy rosters quite yet.

Minnesota Twins
Position Players:
None.

Pitchers:
Colby Miller, 21, P:R, B:R.
9-6 on a 114:43 K:BB in 156 IP over 26 GS
with 139 H, 10 HR, and a 2.71 ERA for A+ Fort Myers(FSL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2009.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2011.

Miller appears quite similar to the Royals' Brian Bass in terms of skill and immediate potential, but Miller may have a slightly clearer path to the majors thanks to the Twins' strong defense throughout their system. While his strikeout rate fell in the Carolina League, he also cut his walk rate from 3.9 to 2.5 BB/9, an excellent indication of future success. If you're going to draft a prospect from today's article, Miller is your best bet, although you still should stick to either players nearer the majors or those with higher overall ceilings.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Perhaps Shingo Takatsu isn't an atrocious selection in standard Ultra leagues, or anywhere else with deep rosters where you can leave him reserved indefinitely. However, like the youngsters listed above, he isn't likely to contribute to many successful roto teams this year.