Today's Fantasy Rx

Every year a couple dozen players receive at least a brief look in the majors almost solely due to their place on a major league 40-man roster. Reviewing the impressive number of youngsters who rather unexpectedly make the majors each year convinced us that these players deserve more attention, so I will elaborate on the fantasy prospects of many of these players over the next few days.

While I recognize I can't provide a complete list of players likely to contribute due to the frequent changes on many 40-man rosters, not to mention the extreme uncertainty regarding in-season roster management on each team, hopefully these snapshots will provide you with another look at many largely unknown players.

Baltimore Orioles
Position Players:
Walter Young, 23, 1B; B:L, T:R.
120/431 for .278/.348/.462 with 20 HR, 87 RBI, 76 R, 2/6 SB%,
and a 35:88 BB:K for A+ Lynchburg(Car).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2006.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2008.

The Orioles snagged Young after Pittsburgh waived him last fall, and his new standing as perhaps Baltimore's best power prospect appears less indicative of Young's skill than his new team's unimpressive cache of hitting prospects. We fault the Pirates for many moves last fall, but dumping Young just wasn't a bad idea. His batting average dropped 45 points despite only moving from the Sally League to the Carolina League, and he showed little overall growth. Most damaging for a power prospect, his doubles total cratered. Considering he also was somewhat old for the league, I don't expect Young to enjoy a particularly productive big league career, so he certainly isn't a fantasy option now.

Pitchers:
Daniel Cabrera, 22, P:R, B:R.
5-9 on a 120:78 K:BB in 125.1 IP over 26 GS
with 105 H, 6 HR, and a 4.24 ERA for A Delmarva(SAL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+ starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2010.

Aside from his intriguing dominance, little about Cabrera suggests he'll rebound in the upper minors. His age gives him less development time than many other Sally League pitching prospects, and although his skills suggests some upside, he shouldn't advance through the system particularly quickly.

Ryan Hannaman, 22, P:L, B:L.
4-4 on a 77:32 K:BB in 63 IP over 13 GS
with 66 H, 7 HR, and a 4.71 ERA for A+ San Jose(Cal).
1-3 on a 22:17 K:BB in 19 IP over 5 GS
with 14 H, 2 HR, and a 3.79 ERA for A+ Frederick(Car).
1-1 on a 14:7 K:BB in 12.1 IP over 4 GS
with 8 H, 0 HR, and a 4.38 ERA for R Giants(AZL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #2 starter by 2009.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $25 by 2012.

Bicep tendinitis limited his innings last year, but his upside ranks with fellow former Giant Kurt Ainsworth. Hannaman's 145:46 K:BB in 132 IP over 24 GS in the Sally League in 2002 at least should insure a solid career as a lefty reliever. Yet as long as he stays healthy and maintains decent dominance and control, he should approach the top of the Orioles' rotation by the end of the decade. I view him as a tremendous gamble right now, however he appears a fairly safe risk compared to most A-ball pitchers.

Boston Red Sox
Position Players:
None.

Pitchers:
None.

New York Yankees
Position Players:
Ferdin Tejeda, 21, SS; B:R, T:R.
64/217 for .295/.320/.382 with 0 HR, 20 RBI, 33 R, 4/7 SB%,
and a 6:38 BB:K for A+ Tampa(FSL).
18/60 for .300/.394/.350 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 13 R, 3/4 SB%,
and a 10:9 BB:K for R Yankees(GCL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA shortstop.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2010.

As he doesn't own much power, speed, or plate discipline, Tejeda definitely is not a viable roto pick, especially given his likely need for no less than two-to-three more years in the minors. A solid BA looks like his only interesting stat right now, so feel free to ignore him for the next year or two.

Pitchers:
Sean Henn, 22, P:L, B:R.
4-3 on a 52:37 K:BB in 72.1 IP over 16 GS
with 69 H, 3 HR, and a 3.61 ERA for A+ Tampa(FSL).
1-1 on a 10:3 K:BB in 8 IP over 1 GS(2G)
with 5 H, 1 HR, and a 2.25 ERA for R Yankees(GCL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league middle reliever by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2010.

Given Henn missed most of the last two seasons with Tommy John surgery and already appears headed to the bullpen, I see no reason to draft him in any league this spring.

Edwardo Sierra, 21, P:R, B:R.
3-5 and 17 Saves on a 52:24 K:BB in 60.1 IP over 51 G
with 64 H, 2 HR, and a 2.09 ERA for A Kane County(Mid).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league short reliever by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2010.

Acquired from Oakland in the Chris Hammond deal in December, Sierra's solid command history suggests he should see continued success as he ascends the minor league ladder. Unfortunately, I expect he'll need at least two more years of seasoning before pitching with any effectiveness in the majors, making him a worse gamble than any of the hundred right-handed relievers already on the cusp of big league action.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Position Players:
Josh Hamilton, 22, OF; B:L, T:L.
No 2003 stats.
Appropriate 2004 Role: A/A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2006.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $30 by 2010.

Looking at Hamilton's difficulties from a slightly different angle, he only would have entered professional baseball last summer if he spent four years at college. Unfortunately, we have no idea how Hamilton will return after missing all of 2003 for unspecified personal reasons, particularly now that he'll spend the next couple weeks on the restricted list following a drug-related suspension. Tampa needs to start him in the Sally League to let Hamilton reacquaint himself with baseball, and if he can overcome his problems from recent years, he still should develop into an elite player. I certainly wouldn't risk a draft pick on him right now in almost any league, but he might merit fantasy attention as soon as the second half of this year if he progresses as the Rays hope.

Pitchers:
None.

Toronto Blue Jays
Position Players:
None.

Pitchers:
D.J. Hanson, 23, P:R, B:R.
10-10 on a 113:56 K:BB in 138.1 IP over 25 GS
with 110 H, 4 HR, and a 2.54 ERA for A Charleston-WV(SAL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2010.

The slight 5'11" righty starter possesses the skills necessary to earn an extended look in Toronto's rotation, but considering he hasn't even reached high-A and doesn't own outstanding control, selecting him in any league is risky right now. I just don't envision Hanson shooting through the system in the manner of Dustin McGowan, so you can safely wait another year before considering him for your team.

Jesse Harper, 23, P:R, B:R.
13-4 on a 100:31 K:BB in 131 IP over 24 GS(26G)
with 112 H, 4 HR, and a 2.54 ERA for A+ Dunedin(FSL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #2 starter by 2010.
2004 Fantasy Potential: Roster filler.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $25 by 2010.

Although Harper is old for his competition and could stumble upon reaching AA like so many other control pitchers, he fortunately possesses the dominance and pitch repertoire to avoid any severe slump. Still, the long-term upside I listed above is somewhat optimistic based on three seasons of strong skills, and since Toronto possesses fairly decent pitching depth, gambling a minor league pick on Harper this spring is an unnecessary risk.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While I like the long-term upside of Hannaman, Hamilton, Hanson, and Harper, none of them merit fantasy consideration this spring as they each appear to need at least another two seasons of development time. However, Harper might earn a look in Toronto by the end of the year, making him a potentially intriguing late-season addition in keeper leagues.