Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to Wednesday's article for discussion of developing league trends in evaluating and selecting catchers, shortstops, and second basemen.

Please refer to yesterday's article for discussion of developing league trends in evaluating and selecting third basemen, first basemen, and outfielders.

In 2003, 611 position players appeared in the majors, 281 that first pitched with AL teams, and 330 that first pitched with NL teams. While only six more total pitchers appeared in the majors last year, the NL total increased by 13 while the AL decreased by 7, echoing the change in total position players. Both rebuilding teams like Cincinnati and Pittsburgh and contenders like St. Louis and Montreal used a surprising number of pitchers, however both leagues still only used an average of roughly 20 pitchers per team. Of course, that still suggests that over half of each team's pitching staff on Opening Day changed by the end of the year, but this number isn't out-of-line with the pitchers per team average in past seasons.

AL Pitchers

Even with the additions of Schilling and Brown to the AL this year, most of the top starters still will push $30, particularly those on Oakland, Boston, and New York, not to mention Roy Halladay. If you can draft someone on one of the presumptive aces for less than $25, adding a solid 200-inning horse is a decent idea, but I see a lot more potential upside in relievers and cheaper starters.

Twenty-five AL starters earned between $5 and $15 in 2003, and only fifteen relievers finished in that same range, a list that included part-time starters Johan Santana and Scot Shields. Even starters like Sidney Ponson cost less than $10 in many leagues, and the impressive waves of young pitching reaching the majors every year provide owners with at least a few solid fantasy options. For 2004, Grant Balfour and Doug Waechter look like good potential sleepers, and almost everyone in the Cleveland and Baltimore rotations owns fairly solid skills. Byung-Hyun Kim also could maintain a value near $20 as he should finish developing into one of the most promising starters in the game.

If you can grab four of these players for a total under $30, then you can spend your remaining pitching money on one underrated closer and a couple of high-skilled middle relievers. Closers who should easily exceed $15 include Dannys Baez, Francisco Cordero, Arthur Rhodes, Mike MacDougal, Bob Wickman, Billy Koch, and Jorge Julio, and I also expect good numbers from whoever wins the Twins' job. Even Justin Speier and Fernando Rodney should earn double-digit value as long as they post 20 saves with above-average qualitative marks, making closers an excellent source of potential bargains. You should be able to roster all but a couple of the pitchers listed here for well under $20, and locking in a good gamble for 30 saves for near $15 should give you a solid base in a sometimes volatile category.

With your remaining four pitching slots, look primarily for low-risk middle relievers, although feel free to add any solid starters that slip to the late rounds of your draft. Esteban Loaiza, Darrell May, and Brian Anderson all reached double-digit value even though they didn't cost more than a dollar in most leagues last spring.

The reason to complete your AL staff with relievers is due to the potential profit available even for non-closers. Relievers that cost $2 or less last year who earned at least a $5 profit include Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Francisco Cordero, Tom Gordon, Dave Riske, Scot Shields, Aquilino Lopez, LaTroy Hawkins, Brendan Donnelly, Julio Mateo, Mike Timlin, and Jeff Nelson. Several of these pitchers should cost a relative pittance in 2004 drafts, and at least another half-dozen skilled pitchers should emerge from relative obscurity to push fantasy teams to championships. Targeting a few of these youngsters to complete your team offers significant upside with only minimal risk, particularly since you should be able to deal from your hopefully loaded $210 offense to fill any pitching holes.

NL Pitchers

While the value stratification in the American League demands limiting your risk as much as possible by drafting safer pitchers, the greater number of pitchers' parks and the weaker overall level of NL closers makes gambling on NL starting pitching a better idea.

First address the uncertain closers for Montreal, Pittsburgh, Florida, and San Francisco by budgeting about $20 for a closer. Joe Borowski is probably your best bet at this price, although Trevor Hoffman, Armando Benitez, Braden Looper, and Danny Kolb all appear solid. At least one of them should be available around $20, and someone like Matt Mantei or Jason Isringhausen would be a good fallback option.

Since any decent closer at least will keep you competitive in saves, most of the remainder of your pitching budget needs to go towards starters. Reserve five dollars for your last four pitchers as I see a dozen respectable lefty relievers that won't cost more than a dollar, not to mention plenty of capable right-handed middle relievers.

Among starters, specifically target high-skills pitchers in good pitchers parks, and when possible grab players on teams with good offenses. All the Padres starters are good gambles, especially since Eaton, Peavy, and Ismael Valdez won't cost too much in most leagues. Then look for perpetually underrated starters who could breakout in a new environment. Atlanta's John Thomson leads this list, although Jeff Suppan and Bret Tomko also are excellent targets.

If you can roster even two of those five starters, you should be in good shape. Grab at least two more starters from the following potential studs: Brett Myers, Kip Wells, Ben Sheets, Jeff Weaver, Edwin Jackson, Jerome Williams, and Carl Pavano. Other acceptable options include Tomo Ohka, Jae Weong Seo, and Jason Marquis; even Darren Oliver, Matt Kinney, Horacio Ramirez, and whoever wins the Braves' fifth starter's job should help most fantasy teams.

I'll include a partial list of quality middle relievers in the roster breakdown listed below, however when targeting low-risk pitchers, look to veterans with good walk rates in pitchers' parks, specifically Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco. The homes of the Cardinals, Cubs, Marlins, Mets, and Braves also generally favor pitchers, giving you a good wealth of options from which to choose.

Adding a few of these relievers to your staff should provide you with a good qualitative base, not to mention the additional wins and saves you need to field a competitive team in every category. Considering your $210 offense should be able to dominate most batting categories, this basic strategy should provide a good framework for many NL-only leagues.

Today's Fantasy Rx: To combine my summaries from the last few days, we've included potential draft strategies for owners in AL or NL-only leagues. While this is a loose variation on the LIMA plan, we still don't see a real need to spend more than $50 on pitching in most leagues, and allocating $30 to saves seems completely unnecessary to me given the closer bargains we expect to see in most leagues.

Rotohelp recommended 2004 AL-only draft strategy
Pos	$	Primary targets
C	13	Varitek, J.Lopez, V.Martinez, LeCroy	
C	2	Melhuse, Laird, Fordyce, B.Davis, Mirabelli
1B	15	Teixeira, R.Palmeiro, Konerko	
3B	25	Chavez, Blalock, Glaus, Koskie, Mueller
CR	15	Crede, Hinske, Spiezio, Randa, Munson, Blake
2B	15	Kennedy, Hairston, B.Roberts
SS	25	Jeter, Garciaparra, Tejada, Berroa
MI	10	Rivas, Hudson, Lugo, W.Harris
OF	35	C.Beltran, I.Suzuki, C.Crawford, Al.Sanchez
OF	20	J.Gonzalez, T.Nixon, H.Matsui, J.Gibbons
OF	20	T.Hunter, L.Matos, Millar, Gerut, B.Williams

OF	5	Crisp, Byrnes, Figgins, E.Owens
OF	5	Stairs, Ludwick, DaVanon, Kapler, McMillon
UT	5	Anyone from above that emerges as a sleeper
	
SP	10	B-H.Kim, M.Redman, Wakefield, Contreras
SP	9	Cl.Lee, D.May, Lohse, R.Franklin
SP	7	Lieber, M.Batista, Ainsworth, Hentgen
SP	4	Balfour, Waechter, Park, DuBose, Cornejo
P	2	Arroyo, Riske, J.Mateo, Timlin, Jo.Jimenez
P	2	S.Shields, DeJean, Williamson, Quantrill
P	1	Bradford, Embree, Weber, Rincon, 
P	1	T.Harper, B.Ryan, Tr.Miller, Kershner
C	14	Baez, Rhodes, Wickman, MacDougal, Julio

Rotohelp recommended 2004 NL-only draft strategy
Pos	$	Primary targets
C	13	J.Phillips, A.Pierzynski, R.Hernandez, J.Estrada
C	2	R.Castro, C.Moeller, J.LaRue, D.Ross
1B	25	D.Lee, Bagwell, Sexson, Thome	
3B	20	Lowell, Ensberg, A.Ramirez, M.Cabrera
CR	10	Choi, Overbay, Helms, T.Batista
2B	20	Vidro, Kent, Durham
SS	20	J.Reyes, Rollins, K.Matsui, Cintron
MI	10	Polanco, R.Alomar, D.Jimenez, A.Miles, B.Hill
OF	35	J.Pierre, S.Podesednik, B.Abreu
OF	20	A.Jones, R.Sanders, Everett, Patterson
OF	20	Edmonds, Jenkins, Green, L.Walker, Floyd
OF	5	Goodwin, R.Cedeno, E.Chavez, Freel
OF	5	Lane, J.Davis, B.Clark, Ledee, Matthews
UT	5	Anyone from above that emerges as a sleeper

SP	8	K.Wells, Penny, Clement, Eaton, Weaver
SP	7	Thomson, Trachsel, Peavy, B.Myers
SP	6	Sheets, Pavano, Seo, Jer.Williams, Suppan
SP	5	I.Valdez, Tomko, Marquis, Ohka, Armas
P	2	Beck, Herges, L.Ayala, Farnsworth, C.Fox
P	1	Cormier, Brower, Shuey, Villarreal, Otsuka
P	1	Telemaco, Eldred, Jul.Tavarez, Weathers, 
P	1	Cunnane, Wheeler, T.Martin, Hitchcock
C	19	Borowski, Hoffman, Benitez, Looper, Kolb