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February 26th 2004 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Please refer to yesterday's article for discussion of developing league trends in evaluating and selecting catchers, shortstops, and second basemen.
As ARod and Melvin Mora won't qualify here in most leagues at the start of the season, the strength of this position lies in the impressive depth of players likely to earn around $25. Eric Chavez, Hank Blalock, Troy Glaus, Corey Koskie, and Bill Mueller each should finish 2004 with a roto value between $20 and $30, so anyone failing to grab one of these players near $25 misses a potential advantage. Joe Crede, Eric Hinske, Scott Spiezio, Joe Randa, Eric Munson, and Casey Blake all could all about $10 behind the top tier, giving you potentially acceptable fallback options. However, unless you believe Crede or Hinske will breakout this year, the greater upside of the top five AL third basemen makes allocating $25 to this position a logical preference, and spending another $10+ for a starting cornerman also isn't a bad idea.
With only St. Louis stud Scott Rolen likely to earn more than $25, securing him at less than $30 is the best option in most leagues. If the bidding on Rolen skyrockets, the second tier here consists of Mike Lowell, Aramis Ramirez, and Morgan Ensberg, who should finish 2004 between $20 and $25. While I like Sean Burroughs and Adrian Beltre and believe both players should enjoy bright futures, neither should reach $20 this year, and Edgardo Alfonzo's health issues similarly make him risky at more than $15. The best player in keeper leagues to grab is Miguel Cabrera, however he likely won't qualify anywhere except the outfield after this season. Since at least half of NL teams will start third basemen likely to barely reach double-digit value at best, plan to spend $20-25 here to secure one of the top four options.
Even though Carlos Delgado challenged for the Triple Crown last year, Aubrey Huff still earned slightly more roto value. Of course, they still finished around $30, and only Raul Ibanez exceeded $20 among the other AL first basemen. David Ortiz could keep improving and still fail to reach $25, and with Nick Johnson now in Montreal, Mark Teixeira is the best young AL first base, and he also will struggle to earn much more than $20. The combination of rising leaguewide power numbers and an almost complete paucity of steals among AL first basemen simply leaves this position as less of a priority than the other AL infield slots. Budget $15-20 here and then draft the first player in your range likely to earn at least a couple bucks of profit. A slightly reduced amount allocated to CR should net you a quality starter from either corner position.
Albert Pujols and Todd Helton again should earn around $40, Derrek Lee, Jeff Bagwell, Richie Sexson, and Jim Thome will post values nears $25, and few other NL first basemen merit double digit bids. Nick Johnson and Phil Nevin are the best remaining options and should approach $20, yet health problems could leave both players in single-digits. Target $25 to secure a 35/100 power stud, and then another $10 should allow you to purchase a third-tier 1B with intriguing upside like Choi or Overbay.
Once again, the overall depth in outfielders on every team makes this position essentially complementary to the eight infielders in standard leagues. After obtaining starters or promising youngsters around the horn, you should use your outfield slots to address any deficiencies in your teams' stats. Most of the elite outfielders in both leagues are burners, so plan on spending $35 to secure an excellent SB source who hopefully also contributes in a few other categories. AL studs include Carlos Beltran, Ichiro Suzuki, Carl Crawford, and Alex Sanchez, while the best NL options are Juan Pierre, Scott Podsednik, and Bobby Abreu. Two more solid starters are a necessity, so plan on spending around $20 for two more players. American League owners should look for HR/RBI sources given the lack of great power options among AL cornermen. Juan Gonzalez, Trot Nixon, Hideki Matsui, Jay Gibbons, and Torii Hunter are your best choices, although Luis Matos, Kevin Millar, Jody Gerut, and Bernie Williams also fit your budgetary needs here. If you grab a power stud at first base in NL leagues, you instead can look for outfielders who contribute in three or four categories. Andruw Jones, Reggie Sanders, Carl Everett, and Corey Patterson are good primary targets. Taking a risk on a player with a troublesome injury history isn't necessarily a bad idea for your third outfield slot, particularly if someone like Jim Edmonds, Geoff Jenkins, Shawn Green, Larry Walker, Cliff Floyd, or even Ken Griffey slips under $20. With your last two outfield slots, look for undervalued contributors who specialize in one or two categories. Solid speedsters include Coco Crisp, Eric Byrnes, Chone Figgins, and Eric Owens in AL leagues and Tom Goodwin, Roger Cedeno, Endy Chavez, and Ryan Freel in NL leagues. Quality offensive outfielders who simply need regular playing time to make a significant fantasy contribution include American Leaguers Matt Stairs, Ryan Ludwick, Jeff DaVanon, Gabe Kapler, Billy McMillon, and Craig Monroe. Similar National Leaguers include Jason Lane, J.J. Davis, Brady Clark, Xavier Nady, Ricky Ledee, Gary Matthews, Jr., and Jeffrey Hammonds. Allocating a total of $10 to your last two outfield openings and another $5 to your UT slot should give you plenty of room to secure excellent complementary players, who hopefully will raise your offensive output to the top of your league.
In the NL, Ben Grieve, who could significantly rebound with Milwaukee, only will qualify at DH initially in most leagues. Definitely consider targeting him for your UT slot as the 28-year-old could challenge for Comeback Player of the Year if he appears healthy during spring training.
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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