Today's Fantasy Rx

Between November 17th and February 24th, I examined every player who appeared in either the majors, AAA, or AA during the 2003 season. Our goal was to provide you with a basic reference on every player with a reasonable chance of contributing to a fantasy team this season. While I suspect I've missed a few future September call-ups, I plan on completing profiles in the near future on anyone on a 40-man man roster that I haven't recently discussed here.

In 2003, 620 position players appeared in the majors, 295 that first played with AL teams, and 325 that first played with NL teams. These numbers draw a surprising contrast to 2002, when a 309/303 AL/NL split depicted the dramatic roster churning on the weakest AL teams. With essentially every AL team now either on the upswing or already in solid contention for the 2004 playoffs, the reduction in total position players used by the league indicates improving stability.

Unfortunately, the dregs of the National League could continue slipping as Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati will conduct auditions at several positions following the loss of multiple primary contributors on each team since the 2003 All-Star break. Montreal similarly enters 2004 without their reigning offensive stud and a young veteran ace, suggesting the potential for dramatic roster turnover, particularly if a poor first half results in mid-season trades of pending free agents like Jose Vidro and Orlando Cabrera. Even the Rockies and Mets, while ostensibly in position to rapidly improve, still face uncertainty at several positions. I wouldn't be shocked to see National League teams employ 336 position players this season as most teams appear in some sort of transition, with the Astros, Cardinals, and Cubs perhaps the only exceptions.

The balance of roto power among position players similarly shifted towards the American League. Fifteen players who began 2003 in the NL and earned double-digit value now play for AL teams, and a dozen players made the reverse move. However, the fifteen new AL players earned $327 last year, nearly $22 each, while the new NL players earned $202, or roughly $5 less per player than their league-switching counterparts. This value exchange slightly lowers the value of the top AL players while slightly elevating the upside of their upper-level NL counterparts.

Keeping these demographic changes in mind, I will spend the next few days conducting a brief evaluation of the players available at each position in both leagues, along with offering some general guidelines for fantasy team planning.

AL Catchers

After a 2002 season when only 11 AL teams fielded even one catcher with Positive Draft Value, only Detroit failed to produce a catcher with PDV last season, and the Tigers remedied that weakness by signing IRod this winter. The addition of Rodriguez, Javy Lopez, and Benito Santiago easily offsets the loss of Pierzynski and Ramon Hernandez to the NL, creating the deepest field of AL catchers in years. Of course, while every AL starting catcher merits at least some consideration, only a few appear good candidates to earn more than a few bucks. Your best bets here are Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Jason Varitek, Lopez, Victor Martinez, and the catcher-eligible Matt LeCroy. Try to acquire one of these elite catchers, pairing him with a solid backup from Adam Melhuse, Gerald Laird, Brook Fordyce, Ben Davis, Doug Mirabelli, or even Sandy Alomar, Jr., hopefully earning $20+ PDV from your two catcher positions for less than $15 at the draft.

NL Catchers

With only 19 NL catchers earning PDV in 2003 and the loss of three of the top few performers to the Junior Circuit, solid catching is a scarce resource in NL-only leagues. New York's Mike Piazza and Jason L. Phillips could finish as the two best NL catchers, and neither player seems guaranteed of earning even $20. Fortunately, Mike Lieberthal, Jason Kendall, Pierzynski, and Ramon Hernandez all appear assured of reaching at least double-digit value, and a second wave of talent that includes Paul LoDuca, Johnny Estrada, Craig Wilson, and Robby Hammock similarly provides a good variety of talent. Ramon Castro, Brian Schneider, Mike Barrett, Jason LaRue, Chad Moeller, Charles Johnson, and Dave Ross also could contribute very helpful roto stats, and backups like Eddie Perez, Todd Pratt, Corky Miller, Brent Mayne, Todd Greene, Tom Wilson, and Yorvit Torrealba each merit at least an endgame pick. Despite the relative paucity of quality options a year ago, the current catching situation in the NL could create multiple bargains in every league. The variety of talent here lets owners spend as much as $35 or as little as $3 on their two catchers slots while likely still netting a respectable profit.

AL Shortstops

As ARod still should qualify at shortstop in most leagues, he remains the class of this position for another year. Derek Jeter's speed makes him a solid alternative, and both Nomar and Tejada appear in good shape to post solid all-around numbers, particularly potentially impressive RBI and Runs totals. While Angel Berroa technically belongs in the discussion of second best AL fantasy shortstop, he simply won't match the contribution of his leaguemates if he experiences even a mild sophomore slump as we expect. Cristian Guzman, David Eckstein, and Rich Aurilia also all should rebound in 2004, yet I don't believe they'll match the numbers of the top five. Target one of the $20-30 elite unless you can sneak ARod under $40, and then consider gambling on one of the lesser starters for your MIF slot.

NL Shortstops

Discussion of NL shortstops begins and essentially ends with Edgar Renteria, who earned almost $45 in standard leagues, giving most of his owners around a $20 profit. With his skills still maturing and the Cardinals' offense providing him with excellent RBI opportunities, he should stay one of the top overall NL fantasy options. Orlando Cabrera and Rafael Furcal similarly are respectable targets under $30, although your options quickly disappear after this top three. We like Alex Cintron, however he remains a largely unknown commodity who could earn less than $10 or approach $30; expecting a lower value seems prudent. Despite limited growth, Jimmy Rollins also could approach $30, although gambling much more than $20 is a mistake. The biggest risks at this position are Jose Reyes and Kazuo Matsui. While I don't envision either player earning much less than $15, they also aren't likely to significantly exceed $25 barring very unlikely high batting averages. Of course, you almost must roster one of these seven players to field a competitive roster since the National League harbors several shortstops who receive extended playing time due almost entirely to their defensive skills and thus merit no more than endgame consideration. Budget at least $20 here to insure you draft a solid starter.

AL Second Basemen

Neither Bret Boone nor Mike Young possess the skills necessary to maintain respective roto values in the neighborhood of $30 for a second straight season, leaving Alfonso Soriano as alone atop the AL second base rankings as Edgar Renteria among NL shortstops. Moving to Texas should boost Soriano another couple bucks due to the change in ballparks, making him a decent option at any price up to $45. While Boone and Young are good players, bidding more than $25 on either is a risk; Adam Kennedy probably will fall a couple dollars behind this second tier of second basemen. The winner of the Orioles' second base job should approach $20 fairly easily, and although Brian Roberts' possesses more upside, Jerry Hairston also is a safe pick at that price. Both players could contribute similar values if Baltimore wisely takes advantage of their depth by dealing one of the for more pitching help. Aside from these six players, gambling on a youngster near $10 is a decent idea as Luis Rivas, Orlando Hudson, Julio Lugo, and Willie Harris all offer $20+ upside. Yet the risk involved in selecting from this foursome suggests they fit better at MIF as somebody like Kennedy, Hairston, or Roberts probably is a better bet for most owners as a primary second basemen.

NL Second Basemen

Marcus Giles, Luis Castillo, and Jose Vidro each could post a $30 season, and Jeff Kent and Ray Durham still own the skills to match those performances. Unfortunately, aside from the mild likelihood of Castillo and Vidro rebounding since both players appear healthy, the other three are poor bets to exceed their 2003 numbers and might struggle to more than echo their stats. Mark Loretta also isn't a good option after his career year, although Placido Polanco is a promising sleeper since he normally posts around $15 of stats yet nearly never costs that much in drafts. The only NL second basemen who looks primed for a strong comeback is Roberto Alomar, yet other than Alomar, Polanco, and perhaps youngsters like D'Angelo Jimenez, Aaron Miles, and Bobby Hill, I don't see many great bargains here. As I advised AL owners, participants in NL-only leagues should budget as much as $20+ for one of the more reliable second basemen, reserving the unappreciated veterans and breakout candidates for your MIF slot.

Taking the middle infield as a whole, I see no reason to severely modify my advice from last year. In the AL, grab the first top shortstop and veteran second basemen available at cost while adding a younger starter, preferably one with good speed skills at MIF. For Senior Circuit owners, unless you can nab Renteria or Castillo at a decent bargain, plan on spending $20+ on an upper-level starter at both starting slots. Spending around $50 total on your three middle infield positions is a good plan in most leagues.

An intriguing option that merits at least some consideration involves budgeting slightly less money for your MIF while targeting a non-starter with either good all-around skills or excellent one-category upside. Todd Walker, Mark Bellhorn, Keith Ginter, Juan Uribe, Damian Jackson, and Eric Young all should open the year as no more than platoon starters but each could reach double-digit value. The latter two speedsters in particular are good sleepers in almost any league as long as they secure consistent playing time by the start of the season.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The relative lack of depth of up-the-middle defensive positions compared to cornermen and outfielders remains a logical reason for prioritizing these positions in your draft planning. Despite the continued influx of quality youngsters at catcher, second baseman, and shortstop, securing established players and low-risk talent likely to earn at least a small profit at these positions gives you a definite competitive advantage over owners that allocate draft dollars elsewhere despite excellent outfield depth and the historically high volatility of pitchers.