Today's Fantasy Rx

Pitchers in Spring Training who Missed Most or All of 2003

Scott Erickson, 35, NYM NRI, P:R, B:R.
2002 stats: 5-12 on a 74:68 K:BB in 160.2 IP over 28 GS(29G)
with 192 H, 20 HR, and a 5.55 ERA for Baltimore.
Appropriate 2004 Role: Long relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #5 starter in 2004.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2005.

The new Mr. Lisa Guerrero required Tommy John surgery in August of 2000, missed all of 2001, and then pitched rather poorly in 2002, tearing his labrum towards the end of the year. Erickson's attempt to rehab the injury failed and he required surgery last March. Now he appears reasonably healthy and able to pitch for the Mets, however nothing in his skill history this decade suggests he'll experience much success. You certainly should avoid him this spring, and I doubt he'll improve even to the point of qualifying as acceptable roster filler again.

Carlos Hernandez, 23, HOU 40-man, P:L, B:S.
2002 stats: 7-5 on a 93:61 K:BB in 111 IP over 21 GS(23G)
with 112 H, 11 HR, a 1.32 G-F, and a 4.38 ERA for Houston.
0-0 on a 2:1 K:BB in 3 IP over 1 GS
with 1 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for AAA New Orleans(PCL).
0-0 on a 10:4 K:BB in 8.2 IP over 2 GS
with 4 H, 1 HR, and a 4.15 ERA for AA Round Rock(TL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: Roster filler.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2009.

Considering Hernandez's skills weren't that good before he required surgery to repair his torn labrum and rotator cuff last February, he appears a particularly poor roto target right now. He also slots no higher than 8th on Houston's rotation depth chart as Jeriome Robertson and Brandon Duckworth deserve shots before Hernandez. Expect him to spend most of the year as a starter for New Orleans unless he unexpectedly wins a bullpen job at some point. He isn't even a good fantasy gamble due to his uncertain role over the next few years.

Luke Hudson, 26, CIN 40-man, P:R, B:R.
2002 stats: 0-0 on a 7:6 K:BB in 6 IP over 3 G
with 5 H, 1 HR, a 5-8 G-F, and a 4.50 ERA for Cincinnati.
5-9 and 3 Saves on a 129:57 K:BB in 117.2 IP over 17 GS(30G)
with 102 H, 6 HR, and a 4.51 ERA for AAA Louisville(IL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AAA swingman.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2010.
2004 Fantasy Potential: Roster filler.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2010.

A torn labrum ended Hudson's 2003 season at the end of spring training. Given his solid strikeout rates in the minors, I still view Hudson as a decent prospect, however his age and the Reds' increasing right-handed pitching depth probably will keep him in the bullpen as long as he remains in Cincinnati. As minor league right-handed relievers are poor fantasy gambles in general, not to mention righty relievers who missed the previous season due to injury, Hudson is not someone to consider in almost any spring draft.

Mike Jackson, 39, CHW NRI, P:R, B:R.
2002 stats: 2-3 on a 29:13 K:BB in 55 IP over 58 G
with 59 H, 5 HR, a 1.03 G-F, and a 3.27 ERA for Minnesota.
Appropriate 2004 Role: AAAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Middle reliever by 2005.
2004 Fantasy Potential: Roster filler.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2005.

The only pitcher included in today's article that didn't spend last year rehabbing an injury, Jackson instead sat out the season following his release from Arizona. While he theoretically could see some save opportunities, the odds of him regaining any roto appear quite low. Don't consider Jackson for your team unless you need roster filler and he owns good skills across-the-board after a couple dozen innings with Chicago.

Steve Karsay, 31, NYY 40-man, P:R, B:R.
2002 stats: 6-4 on a 65:30 K:BB in 88.1 IP over 78 G
with 87 H, 7 HR, a 2.21 G-F, and a 3.26 ERA for New York(A).
Appropriate 2004 Role: Middle reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Closer by 2006.
2004 Fantasy Potential: .
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $25 by 2008.

Karsay could regain the fantasy promise he owned prior to tearing his rotator cuff and requiring arthroscopic surgery last May, however he even may not be healthy by Opening Day. Regardless of when Karsay returns, Tom Gordon is the obvious alternative to Mariano Rivera for Yankees' saves, so Karsay likely can't reach double-digit value no matter how much skill he regains. If he maintains a low WHIP and good groundball rate, he definitely should be a good mid-season free agent pick-up, but spending anything more than a reserve pick on Karsay this spring is a questionable move. Unless New York unexpectedly mangles negotiations with Mariano Rivera in similar fashion to the Andy Pettitte talks, Karsay appears stuck in middle relief the next two years, so targeting him as potential trade bait also offers little upside.

Hong-Chih Kuo, 22, LA 40-man; B:L, T:L.
No 2003 stats.
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2011.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2012.

Elbow problems have kept Kuo from pitching all but 36 innings in 15 games since he signed with the Dodgers in 1999. He likely never will remain healthy enough to make the majors, but his 45:7 K:BB in those 36 innings indicates considerable long-term upside. While you definitely shouldn't draft him any time soon given his injury limitations, he still possesses intriguing potential.

Jon Lieber, 33, NYY 40-man, P:R, B:L.
2003 stats: 0-0 on a 4:0 K:BB in 2 IP over 1 GS
with 5 H, 0 HR, and a 13.50 ERA for A+ Tampa(FSL).
0-0 on a 6:0 K:BB in 6 IP over 2 GS
with 8 H, 0 HR, and a 4.50 ERA for R Yankees(GCL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: #5 starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2006.
2004 Fantasy Potential: $10.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2007.

Given that Opening Day falls nearly 20 months after Lieber's Tommy John surgery, I see little reason he shouldn't open the year at the end of the Yankees' rotation. He should struggle at times given his nearly two years of rust, however he owned perhaps the best command of any big league starter prior to his injury. As long as Lieber receives decent defense behind him, he should post helpful qualitative marks. Of course, considering New York's glaring weakness at the positions up-the-middle and uncertain situation at the corners, Lieber could suffer from a troublesome hit rate. I still view him as a respectable pick in the high single-digits, but don't rely on him as a primary starter.

Justin Miller, 26, TOR 40-man, P:R, B:R.
2003 stats: 0-1 on a 5:2 K:BB in 6 IP over 1 GS
with 3 H, 0 HR, and a 4.50 ERA for A+ Dunedin(FSL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA/AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2009.

Shoulder surgery in May ended Miller's season, although considering he compiled fairly poor numbers with Toronto in 2002, he wasn't a good fantasy pick last year. Now the Blue Jays not only can field five solid starters to begin the season, Jason Arnold, David Bush, and a few minor league free agents give them a respectable rotation at AAA Syracuse. Miller even could convert to the bullpen, however I expect Toronto will give him another year or two as a starter before making a permanent move. Of course, he isn't a viable roto pick now due to his health and terrible command in 2002, but he still should emerge as a useful fantasy contributor in the near future.

Robb Nen, 34, SF 40-man, P:R, B:R.
2002 stats: 6-2 and 43 Saves on an 81:20 K:BB in 73.2 IP over 68 G
with 64 H, 2 HR, a 1.32 G-F, and a 2.20 ERA for San Francisco.
Appropriate 2004 Role: Closer.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Closer in 2004.
2004 Fantasy Potential: .
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: .

Nen needed surgery to repair his torn rotator cuff and labrum last May, however current reports indicate he should begin the season as the Giants' closer barring a significant setback. While he could regain his position as one of the league's closer, you don't need to invest in Nen given the intriguing number of alternate options for saves. Certainly don't pay more than $20 for him even if he appears fully healthy and dominates in spring training, however if you to plan to bid more than a couple bucks on him, keep close watch on his progress over the next six weeks.

Nick Neugebauer, 23, MIL 40-man, P:R, B:R.
2002 stats: 1-7 on a 47:44 K:BB in 55.1 IP over 12 GS
with 56 H, 10 HR, a 1.49 G-F, and a 4.72 ERA for Milwaukee.
0-3 on an 18:12 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 5 GS
with 20 H, 4 HR, and a 5.12 ERA for AAA Indianapolis(IL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA/AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #2 starter by 2010.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2011.

Stay far away from Neugebauer as anything but a speculative late-round reserve pick in standard Ultra leagues. He's barely pitched since rotator cuff tendinitis ended his 2002 season in mid-May of that year; arthroscopic shoulder surgery ended his 2003 season last February. Considering his extreme control problems prior to his injury, he offers significant downside to anyone who drafts him. Neugebauer still could emerge as a dominant pitcher at some point, but his immediate future is far too uncertain for any fantasy owner to target him this spring.

Franklin Perez, 25, PHI 40-man, P:R, B:R.
2002 stats: 3-2 and 5 Saves on a 68:36 K:BB in 101.2 IP over 12 GS(40G)
with 98 H, 8 HR, and a 3.72 ERA for AA Reading(EL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA/AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Middle reliever by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2009.

Philadelphia purchased his contract in November of 2002 even though he underwent Tommy John surgery that October. With nearly fifteen months elapsed since his surgery, he should return to the minors this year with few likely side effects. Of course, considering he didn't demonstrate strong skills in AA when healthy two years ago, we have no idea how soon Perez might fulfill the Phillies' expectation of him replacing Carlos Silva in the bullpen. Perez simply is not a viable fantasy option in any league at this time.

Francisco Rosario, 23, TOR 40-man, P:R, B:R.
2002 stats: 3-3 on a 65:25 K:BB in 63 IP over 12 GS(13G)
with 33 H, 3 HR, and a 1.29 ERA for A+ Dunedin(FSL).
6-1 on a 78:14 K:BB in 66.2 IP over 13 GS
with 50 H, 5 HR, and a 2.57 ERA for A Charleston-WV(Sal).

Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA/AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #1 starter by 2009.
2004 Fantasy Potential: Low-round draft pick.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $30 by 2010.

Tommy John surgery in October of 2002 cost Rosario all of last season, but I expect him to reemerge as a dominant pitching prospect by the end of this year. He could convert to the bullpen to ease the stress caused by his motion, however the Blue Jays will keep him in the rotation as long as possible. While you shouldn't draft him this spring in any save the deepest of fantasy leagues, his upside probably exceeds that of any pitcher in the Toronto system. Only more arm problems should prevent Rosario from contributing to both the Jays and the teams of his fantasy owners by the second half of 2005.

Jeff Zimmerman, 31, TEX 40-man, P:R, B:R.
2003 stats: 0-0 on a 2:0 K:BB in 3 IP over 3 GS
with 0 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for R Rangers(AZL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: Middle reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Closer by 2006.
2004 Fantasy Potential: Roster filler.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2007.

As he hasn't pitched in the majors since 2001, Zimmerman ranks with the riskiest players to own this year, particularly considering he pitches home games in Texas. Recent reports indicate his elbow finally is healthy, however since we heard similar statements a year ago, we can't place much faith in the current communication from Rangers' camp. Francisco Cordero appears comfortably established as the Texas closer, so even if Zimmerman returns as an effective reliever, he isn't likely to earn more than a few bucks of value. Unfortunately, gambling even a Dollar Days pick on him at this point makes little sense since he easily could slip into negative value, particularly if he can't established consistent mechanics after essentially a thirty-month layoff.

While Paul Byrd, Chris Carpenter, Bob Wickman, and Mark Wohlers all barely pitched in 2003, each managed at least one appearance at the AA affiliate of their respective teams. Therefore, I will include my comments on them with the remainder of upper-level minor leaguers over the next two weeks.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with starting pitcher Prospects & Suspects from the AL East.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Only Lieber and Nen appear to merit much consideration in spring drafts, and neither veteran is a particularly good gamble. Nen might retire if he suffers from more problems, so anyone drafting him should grab Matt Herges and maybe even Felix Rodriguez as back-ups. While Lieber owned about the best skills of his career when he went down in 2002, I also wouldn't gamble into double digits on him. The Yankees' apparent need for Lieber to start under almost any circumstances could force New York to rush his recovery, thereby increasingly the likelihood of his normally solid qualitative stats rising to barely useful levels.