Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with $-4 DV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

161.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Eddie Oropesa		3	0	5.82	1.68	39	27	38	38.2
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-7		-4
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-3		-6		-4

While he managed a 2.35 ERA on a 9:4 K:BB in 15.1 IP with 14 H and 0 HR over 15 G for AAA Tucson(PCL), as well as an excellent 2.52 G-F with Arizona, Oropesa's overall skill level remains rather poor. Now, he held left-handers to a .206/.329/.333 performance, so we see why San Diego signed him this winter, but he just isn't a promising pitcher. Despite his minimal downside, he also doesn't belong on fantasy teams since Oropesa hasn't registered either helpful qualitative stats or good command marks in any of his three seasons in the majors.

162.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Randall		2	0	6.51	1.63	25	11	34	27.2
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-7
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-7

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Cincinnati for my comments on Randall.

163.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Russ Springer		1	0	8.31	1.44	11	6	19	17.1
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-7		-2
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	-4		-7		-2

Springer missed a great opportunity to reestablish himself in the majors thanks to a sprained elbow in early May. Between the sprain and nerve transfer surgery in his elbow, he didn't return to the roster until September. Considering he pitched quite poorly even when healthy, likely due to his nearly unacceptable .53 G-F, I don't know if we'll see the free agent in the big leagues again. Certainly don't roster him even if does return this year.

164.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Britt Reames		0	0	27.00	4.50	1	2	4	1.1
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-7		3
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	-4		-8		3

Instead of focusing on Reames' poor 2003, Oakland looked to the upside displayed in his past, adding Reames to their system after Montreal non-tendered him. Unfortunately, he failed to succeed in the minors despite spending nearly the entire year at AAA Edmonton(PCL), compiling a 5-13 record and 5.42 ERA on an 86:6 K:BB in 118 IP with 146 H and 8 HR over 20 GS(25G). The key to his recent problems is that he simply lacks the skills to start successfully. As a reliever in 2002 with Montreal, he managed a 3.97 ERA on a 56:26 K:BB in 7.2 IP with 50 H and 2 HR. If Oakland leaves him in the bullpen and nurtures this skill, I expect Reames will emerge as a useful component of their bullpen. Don't draft him or even consider him for your tea until his numbers improve, but keep an eye on his progress, particularly in deeper leagues.

165.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joe Valentine		0	0	18.00	3.00	1	1	5	2
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-7		-2		R
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	-4		-8		-3

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Cincinnati for my comments on Valentine.

166.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jaime Cerda		1	0	5.85	1.61	19	20	32	32.1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-7		-1		R
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-4		-7		-1

Kansas City dealt Shawn Sedlacek to the Mets for Cerda last month, and if Affeldt breaks camp in the rotation, Cerda only needs to pitch better than Dennys Reyes to earn a bullpen spot. While Cerda certainly struggled with New York, he needs no more seasoning after compiling a 1.18 ERA on a 52:17 K:BB in 53.1 IP with 39 H and 3 HR over 34 G for AAA Norfolk(IL) between 2002 and 2003. His flyball tendency and walk rate prevent us from recommending him now, but given his age and skill, I still expect him to enjoy a long career, and Cerda could emerge as a viable fantasy option at any time.

167.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Shane Nance		0	0	4.81	1.81	25	10	34	24.1
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-8		-2
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		-7		-2

Milwaukee's terrible defense sabotaged his April numbers, but he rebounded in the second half to post a 2.70 ERA on a 10:4 K:BB in 10 IP. More importantly, he compiled a 1.38 ERA on a 53:13 K:BB in 52.1 IP with 34 H and 4 HR over 35 G for AAA Indianapolis(IL). The Diamondbacks dealt for him in the Richie Sexson deal, and while he enters spring training in competition with at least Stephen Randolph, Casey Fossum, Andrew Good, and Jim Parque for maybe two bullpen spots, only Randolph and Fossum look like serious competition. I expect Nance to spend most of this year in the majors, however despite the decent chance he'll pitch well, I doubt he'll earn more than a couple of bucks as a likely lefty specialist. Wait until he holds a roster spot into May while displaying good skills before considering him acceptable roster filler.

168.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jesus Sanchez		0	0	9.00	1.88	2	4	11	8
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-8		-3
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-4		-8		-4

Sanchez compiled a 3.98 ERA on a 52:26 K:BB in 63.1 IP with 61 H and 4 HR over 46 G for AAA Colorado Springs(PCL). Unfortunately, given his mostly terrible performance since leaving Florida, I see no reason to expect a rebound now that he heads to one of the most competitive spring camps by signing with Cincinnati. He simply is a terrible gamble right now, completely unworthy of fantasy consideration until he demonstrates solid skills in the majors.

169.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jimmy Journell		0	0	6.00	2.33	8	11	10	9
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-8		-1		R
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-4		-8		-1		R

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: St. Louis for my comments on Journell.

170.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Vic Darensbourg		0	0	8.00	2.00	4	1	17	9
COL/MON		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-8		-4
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	-4		-8		-5

Although he flailed rather badly in the majors after leaving Florida in the Mike Hampton deal, he rebounded nicely after a demotion, compiling a 2.97 ERA on a 26:12 K:BB in 36.1 IP with 36 H and 1 HR over 31 G between AAA Colorado Springs(PCL) and AAA Edmonton(PCL). Darensbourg's solid work earned him a minor league deal with the White Sox. Unfortunately, the presence of lefties Damaso Marte, Kelly Wunsch, and Scott Schoeneweis in Chicago essentially insures Darensbourg spends most of 2004 in the minors. I don't envision him emerging as a useful fantasy option this season.

171.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Antonio Alfonseca		3	0	5.83	1.55	51	27	76	66.1
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-8		9		17
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-3		-6		7		14

While injury cost Alf his closer job and he failed to save a single game, he remained effective against right-handers and experience continued skill improvement in some areas. His ground-fly rate fell for the sixth straight year, making him one of the few players to demonstrate improvement in a skill in every season of a career. Alfonseca reached a 2.62 G-F in 2003, so we can expect his .9 homer rate to fall. His 6.9 K/9 ranks as one of the best marks of his career, his walk rate also improved by .7 BB/9. Although his hit rate reached 10.3 H/9, moving back to the Southeast to play for Atlanta, a team likely to provide him significantly more defensive help than the Cubs, should help Alfonseca regain his usefulness. I wouldn't draft him before the reserve rounds in most leagues, but if Smoltz hits the DL again, Alfonseca easily could emerge as the primary closer ahead of Will Cunnane or Jaret Wright.

172.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bret Prinz		0	0	12.00	3.67	3	4	7	3
ARI/NYY		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-8		-4
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-4		-8		-4

An extremely painful right groin cost Prinz the first half of the season, and his inclusion in the trade for Raul Mondesi resulted in him only seeing two more games of action in the majors after joining the Yankees. While his 13:1 K:BB in 12.2 IP for AAA Columbus(IL) seems solid, allowing 20 hits and 2 homers in those 10 games led to an 8.03 ERA. He still possesses sufficient skill to reemerge as a useful reliever for a few years, but his lack of dominance and current role as injury insurance gives him little hope of overt success in 2004. Don't draft him this spring.

173.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Armando Almanza		4	0	6.08	1.67	49	25	59	50.1
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-8		1		1
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	-3		-6		1		R

Although Almanza dominated opponents in April, compiling a 2.13 ERA on an 18:5 K:BB in 12.2 IP, he quickly plummeted away from roto usefulness. While his .98 G-F is a career-best mark, he still posted a 1.8 homer rate, and when combined with a 4.5 walk rate, his ERA shot up. Arthroscopic elbow surgery ended his season in August, preventing him from contributing to the Marlins' playoff run, so Florida non-tendered him in December. Signing with Atlanta likely makes Almanza the Braves' primary lefty, yet unless his hit, walk and homer rates start falling, his consistently excellent strikeout rate won't guarantee his roster spot. Avoid Almanza unless he demonstrates nearly across-the-board skill improvement, thereby decreasing his qualitative stats to acceptable levels.

174.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brandon Puffer		0	0	5.14	1.90	10	16	24	21
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-8		-1
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-4		-8		-1

Following the Astros' unsurprising decision to release him due to his poor control, San Diego signed Puffer, which presents him with another filled bullpen without much room for inconsistent right-handed relievers. Of course, Puffer still owns a 1.95 G-F that limits his downside, and he continues impressing in the minors. He compiled a 2.91 ERA on a 41:16 K:BB in 52.2 IP with 50 H and 1 HR over 44 G for AAA New Orleans(PCL) in 2003, suggesting he could succeed under the right circumstances. The Padres' ever-increasing relief depth likely will keep him out of the majors for most of this season, but if you see him on free agent lists with a couple of weeks of solid stats in San Diego, he should be viable roster filler.

175.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dan Serafini		1	0	5.40	1.83	13	14	41	30
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:S	4x4:	-4		-8
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-4		-8

After pitching in Taiwan in 2002, Serafini joined Monterrey of the Mexican League in 2003 after failing to break camp with St. Louis. He dominated most opponents, compiling a 10-2 record and 1.59 ERA on an 89:41 K:BB in 96.1 IP. Unfortunately, he failed to translate this performance into major league success after signing with Cincinnati. Serafini struggled as a starter, then didn't pitch much better after a move to the bullpen. He heads back to the Orient this year, signing with the Chiba Lotte Mariners, but given he never has demonstrated much skill in the majors, he merits no fantasy consideration whatsoever.

176.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeff Fassero		1	3	5.68	1.64	55	34	93	77.2
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-8		0
2003 Age: 40	5x5:	-3		-6		0		R

I suppose Fassero could echo Darren Oliver's unexpectedly strong performance for the Rockies, but Fassero is close to a decade older than Oliver. The odds of Fassero pitching well for Colorado in any role, particularly after his poor performance with St. Louis last year, seem extremely remote. Do not even consider rostering him on your fantasy team.

177.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Nelson Cruz		3	0	7.21	1.42	38	11	65	53.2
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-8		-3
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-3		-7		-3

He pitched surprisingly well in April after winning a rotation spot, compiling a 4.61 ERA on a 9:6 K:BB in 27.1 IP with 26 H and 6 HR over 5 starts. Unfortunately, while his dominance returned in May as Cruz posted a 15:3 K:BB in 13 IP, he also allowed 22 hits and 6 homers in four appearances. Despite a mild June rebound, shoulder tendinitis effectively ended his season by the All-Star break. The Rockies released him after a poor performance ended Colorado Springs' playoff run, a disappointment compounded by Cruz departing the clubhouse before the game ended. Although Cruz's history of solid command suggests he could succeed in a pitched-friendly ballpark, nothing in his 2003 stats suggests you should gamble on him until he displays improved qualitative stats.

178.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Myers		0	0	5.70	1.62	21	21	38	36.1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-8		-1
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	-4		-8		-1

Kaz Sasaki's decision to return to Japan pushes Eddie Guardado into the closer's role and essentially guarantees Myers a roster spot as Seattle's primary lefty specialist. We can expect a reasonably strong rebound season thanks to Myers moving to a much better pitchers' park, although his decreasing dominance and command definitely worries me. He hasn't even excelled against left-handers since joining Arizona as the Diamondbacks surprisingly allowed him to face a significant number of right-handed batters. While Myers certainly could help the Mariners, his extremely limited upside and questionable skills make him a questionable fantasy choice as anything other than brief roster filler.

179.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joe Beimel		1	0	5.05	1.64	42	33	69	62.1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-8		-3
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		-7		-3

Even with Mark Guthrie joining the team, Beimel almost surely will spend another season in the Pirates' pen. However, aside from a steadily increasing strikeout rate, I see nothing here that suggests he should remain in the majors. Beimel allowed a poor .288/.364/.464 against right-handers yet still posted a worse performance against lefties. Young relievers that allow an OPS over .825 to virtually all opponents simply need more seasoning, so as long as John Grabow performs as expected this spring, hopefully Pittsburgh will give Beimel the additional development time he needs. Since his skills suggest he doesn't belong in the majors, you certainly should avoid Beimel in all fantasy leagues.

180.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Victor Alvarez		0	0	12.71	2.65	3	6	9	5.2
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-8		-3
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-4		-9		-3

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Los Angeles for my comments on Alvarez.

181.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Juan Cruz		2	0	6.05	1.54	65	28	66	61
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-9		6		1
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		-6		6		1

The decision to keep Shawn Estes in the rotation last spring rather than give Cruz the opportunity he deserved nearly cost the Cubs a playoff appearance. Fortunately Chicago still edged out Houston to win the division, and barring the increasingly unlikely possibility of Greg Maddux signing with the Cubs, Cruz should open this year as a starter in the majors. Following his weak 31:31 K:BB in 45.2 IP over 9 starts in 2002, Cruz dramatically improved last year, compiling a 31:11 K:BB in 33 IP. Allowing 39 hits and 3 homers led to a 5.46 ERA, yet his minor league numbers reinforced his immediate upside. Cruz posted a 4-0 record and a 1.95 ERA on a 47:11 K:BB in 50.2 IP with 37 H and 1 HR over 9 GS for AAA Iowa(PCL), a performance that hopefully solidified his future in the Cubs' rotation. Many owners likely will shy away from Cruz this spring given his questionable status with the club and poor performance out of the bullpen in 2003. Of course, as long as he breaks camp in the rotation, feel free to head towards double digits in bidding since I see nothing suggesting Cruz won't succeed if Chicago demonstrates confidence his abilities.

182.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Middlebrook		0	0	10.29	2.43	3	4	13	7
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-9		1		R
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-4		-9		1		4

Middlebrook remains a Met despite losing his spot on the 40-man roster in September. Instead of securing a rotation spot as I expected, he pitched poorly in middle relief before heading to AAA Norfolk(IL). He compiled a 4.49 ERA and a 7-10 record for the Mets' highest affiliate, along with a 91:33 K:BB in 118.1 IP with 121 H and 21 HR over 23 GS. While Middlebrook obviously owns good command, his homer problems make him too unreliable to roster right now. Wait until he rebounds in the majors before considering him for your team.

183.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joe Roa		1	0	6.14	1.54	38	10	69	50.4
PHI/COL/SD		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-9		1		R
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-4		-7		0		R

After spending time in four different organizations in 2003, hopefully Roa can find a home with a Minnesota team desperate for a couple of solid veteran innings eaters. He doesn't seem destined for a rotation slot, but as long as he limits his homers and maintains good control, the Twins' solid defense could reduce his hit rate to an acceptable level. While I view him as a very risky pick since he lacks the dominance to emerge as a steady closer, he certainly possesses the command necessary to emerge as a viable roto option at any time.

184.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Graeme Lloyd		1	0	5.29	1.72	25	14	68	47.2
NYM/KC		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-9		0
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	-4		-8		0		1

After joining Kansas City in exchange for Jeremy Hill, Lloyd proceeded to allow 29 hits in 12.1 innings over 16 games, compiling a 10.95 ERA and 2.91 ERA in his disastrous few weeks in the American League. While decent control and a respectable 1.61 G-F limit his downside to some extent, I don't know where he'll find work this year since lefties batted .338 against him. Avoid Lloyd unless he shows his struggles with the Royals were a fluke.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Serious consider targeting Cruz for as many of your roto teams as possible, especially in keeper leagues, since he possesses both the tools and skills to emerge in a similar fashion to Carlos Zambrano. While signing Maddux essentially eliminates his 2004 value barring injury, I see no reason Cruz otherwise won't break out if given a couple months to prove himself, a reasonable expectation after wasting a rotation slot on Estes last year.