Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with $-3 DV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

141.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Cory Vance		1	0	5.60	1.50	12	10	31	27.1
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-6		-3
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		-6		-4

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Colorado for my comments on Vance.

142.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dan Smith		2	0	5.26	1.59	35	18	42	37.2
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		2
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-3		-6		1		R

Shoulder surgery in early July ended his season, and now Smith enters camp as no better than the sixth best reliever in camp, and if T.J.Tucker and Jeremy Fikac both wins spots, Smith heads back to Edmonton. Of course, his ridiculously bad 2.6 homer rate already left him with little immediate usefulness. Even with decent dominance and sporadically good control, any pitcher with this much downside isn't an acceptable roto option until he proves otherwise by compiling solid all-around skills in a couple months of major league action.

143.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Edgar Gonzalez		2	0	4.91	1.91	14	7	28	18.1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6
2003 Age: 20	5x5:	-3		-6

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Arizona for my comments on Gonzalez.

144.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Luther Hackman		2	0	5.17	1.49	48	36	78	76.2
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		-2
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-2		-5		-2

We saw welcome growth from Hackman in several areas, including his career-best 1.19 G-F. He registered a 3.73 ERA in the first half on a 31:19 K:BB in 50.2 IP with 49 H and 3 HR over 42 games, and while those stats obviously indicate no dominance, his relatively decent control and acceptable WHIP made him decent roster filler. Unfortunately, Hackman's evaporated in the second half as he only managed a 7.96 ERA on a 17:17 K:BB in 26 IP. With that sharp decline and his decision to sign with Cleveland this winter, I see little hope of him seeing more than a few innings in the majors. Barring the sudden return of his first-half skills, Hackman also isn't someone worth rostering regardless of his playing time.

145.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rodney Myers		0	0	6.00	1.56	5	4	10	9
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	-3		-7

While Myers pitched very well for AAA Las Vegas(PCL), compiling a 9-1 record and 3.30 ERA on a 8:22 K:BB in 71 IP with 66 H and HR over 46 games, he again slumped upon reaching the Dodgers. Given his age and past ineffectiveness, I don't expect to see him in the majors many more times, and as he demonstrates no signs of positive fantasy value, avoid Myers whenever he appears on free agent lists.

146.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Felix Sanchez		0	0	10.80	3.00	2	3	2	1.2
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		-2
2003 Age: 22	5x5:	-3		-7		-3

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Chicago(N) for my comments on Sanchez.

147.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Manny Aybar		0	0	6.00	2.33	2	3	4	3
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		-3
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-3		-7		-3

Aybar looks like a quality minor league closer, but his struggles in the majors indicate he'll need a lucky break to secure a regular bullpen job. While he compiled a 4.08 ERA and 17 Saves on a 5:23 K:BB in 57.1 IP with 55 H and 7 HR over 52 G for AAA Fresno(PCL), I simply see no evidence Aybar can translate those skill ratios into big league success.

148.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Marquis		0	1	5.53	1.50	19	18	43	40.2
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-3		-6		1		1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-6		1		2

Despite repeated failures to establish himself as a consistently effective pitcher, Marquis displays enough overall skill to warrant additional chances. He manages an 8-4 record and 3.35 ERA on a 75:3 K:BB in 94 IP with 93 H and 5 HR over 15 GS with AAA Richmond(IL) last year, which at least suggests solid upside. Marquis also compiled a career-best 1.61 G-F with the Braves, so if his strikeout rate hadn't mysteriously plummeted, maybe they wouldn't have traded him to St. Louis. However, while I wouldn't roster him in leagues with overt transaction restrictions, I believe he can pitch decently in the rotation for a couple months before earning a bullpen exile as St. Louis either deals for a starter or promotes a prospect. Without particularly positive skill trends, wait to gamble on Marquis until the endgame of your draft.

149.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jim Mann		0	0	10.80	3.60	1	1	5	1.2
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		-3
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-3		-7		-3

Another solid year at AAA Nashville(PCL) only earned Mann a brief look in the majors. He posted 5 Saves and a 3.06 ERA on a 8:20 K:BB in 61.2 IP with 38 H and 8 HR over 51 G. Nothing in those stats suggests significant upside for Mann, so while I expect to see him in the majors for a few innings now that he signed with the Yankees, I don't envision him earning regular bullpen work for any team in the foreseeable future.

150.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brooks Kieschnick		1	0	5.26	1.49	39	13	66	53
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-3		-7		-3
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-3		-6		-3		R

Kieschnick emerged as a surprisingly useful player for Milwaukee, and if the new Brewers help improve the defense, his qualitative stats could drop significantly. His 6.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 2.05 G-F, and a .8 HR/9 all are solid marks. If his hit rate drops from 11.2 H/9 to less than a hit per inning, he could earn several dollars of value, particularly in leagues that allow you to accumulate both his batting and pitching stats. Not only does he appear a marvelously underrated player in Milwaukee as many people don't realize the flexibility he provides manager Ned Yost, but Kieschnick now looks like a potential roto sleeper as well.

151.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bruce Chen		0	0	5.55	1.48	20	10	26	24.1
HOU/BOS		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-7		-3		R
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		-6		-3

Signing with Toronto places Chen in the position of possibly playing for 10 different teams before his 27th birthday, particularly since I don't expect him to receive more than a brief shot with the Blue Jays. His inability to harness his skills under any one of such a wide variety of pitching skills is a worrisome sign for anyone believing in his upside, but his minor league numbers still suggest intriguing potential. At AAA Pawtucket(IL) last season, Chen compiled a 4.24 ERA on a 73:15 K:BB in 85 IP with 80 H and 12 HR over 15 GS(16G), a rather remarkable demonstration of skill from someone who spent almost all of 2002 in various team's bullpen. If he builds on the career-best 1.14 G-F he posted last year, he could enjoy an impressive career. Unfortunately, considering the number of false starts in his career that burned roto owners in the past, avoid Chen completely until he finally emerges as a reliable pitcher. The chance of him wrecking your qualitative marks if his flyball problems return while he pitches home games in the SkyDome is simply too much of a gamble.

152.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Anthony Ferrari		0	0	6.75	2.25	1	5	4	4
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-7
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-4		-7

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Montreal for my comments on Ferrari.

153.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Gonzalez		0	0	7.56	1.56	6	6	7	8.1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-3		-7
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-7

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Pittsburgh for my comments on Gonzalez.

154.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Nate Bland		1	0	5.75	1.67	18	12	22	20.1
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-7
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-3		-7

Despite a December non-tender, Bland re-signed with Houston and enters spring training as roughly the third best left-hander in the team's bullpen. His 2.84 ERA on a 23:9 K:BB in 19 IP with 15 H and 1 HR over 17 G at AAA New Orleans(PCL) last year solidified his upside as a big league reliever, and if he improves his control when in the majors, he should emerge as a competent lefty specialist for a few years. Of course, his .273/.321/.295 against lefties last year wasn't a problem; a manager that sent him to face over 40 right-handed batters despite a .303/.442/.697 line versus right-handers destroyed his stat line. Bland probably belongs in the majors, but until he finds a situation suited to his skills, he isn't a fantasy option.

155.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Todd Wellemeyer		1	1	6.51	1.59	30	19	25	27.2
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-7
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-6

While he should head back to the minors if the Cubs add another starter, Wellemeyer currently leads a pack of Chicago pitchers gunning for the final bullpen spot. I suspect his upside as a dominant reliever could force the Cubs to keep him in relief indefinitely, however his 2003 minor league numbers also demonstrated his potential as a starter. He compiled a 34:10 K:BB in 21.1 IP with 19 H and 1 HR over 4 GS for AA West Tenn(SL), and then posted a less impressive 56:33 K:BB in 66 IP with 68 H and 7 HR over 12 GS(13G) for AAA Iowa(PCL). At the moment, Wellemeyer's control problems and his .87 G-F just make him too risky to own, but his future remains bright and he could emerge as a useful roster option by this June if his skills improve.

156.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Gabe Molina		0	0	13.5	2.25	1	1	5	2.2
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-7		-3
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-4		-7		-3

Nothing in Molina's stats suggest he belongs in the majors right now. He only managed a 5.09 ERA on a 47:31 K:BB in 63.2 IP with 73 H and 9 HR over 57 games at AAA Memphis(PCL), and given his normally terrible WHIP in the majors, avoid him indefinitely.

157.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bryan Hebson		0	0	13.50	2.50	1	1	4	2
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-7
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-4		-7

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Boston for my comments on Hebson.

158.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Luis Vizcaino		4	0	6.39	1.44	61	25	64	62
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-7		5		8
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-2		-5		5		8

Milwaukee didn't non-tender Vizcaino despite a terrible year since they hope he can rediscover his 2002 effectiveness, and perhaps because the Brewers realize that he somehow ranks second on the pitching staff in tenure with the team after Ben Sheets. The fluctuating personnel in Milwaukee's bullpen also means that Vizcaino still could emerge as their closer if Danny Kolb hits the DL, but don't risk your qualitative stats on that chance. Vizcaino's .70 G-F forced his homer rate to 2.1 HR/9, so his ERA skyrocketed when he couldn't hold down his hit or walk rates. However, after an atrocious first half, Vizcaino compiled a 4.28 ERA on a 27:9 K:BB in 27.1 with 18 H over 33 games after the All-Star break. While he still allowed 5 homers in those games, he also demonstrated enough upside for me to suggest you consider him as a reserve pick in deeper leagues, especially if you own Kolb.

159.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Allen Levrault		1	0	3.86	1.89	21	15	38	28
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-7
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		-7

Ignore his lucky low ERA since Levrault's terrible WHIP better illustrates his current skill level. His .65 G-F also indicates obvious downside, and while he dominated at AAA Albuquerque(PCL), compiling a 1.40 ERA on an 18:9 K:BB in 25.2 IP with 12 H and 2 HR over 21 games, he still hasn't maintained his skills above the minors. Signing with St. Louis should guarantee he sees a few innings in the big leagues this year, but until he demonstrates his minor league success isn't a fluke, you can't consider Levrault for your team. Considering his age, you have plenty of time to roster him if he shows signs of success.

160.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Orber Moreno		0	0	7.88	1.63	5	3	10	8
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-7
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-4		-7

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: New York(N) for my comments on Moreno.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While Marquis and Kieschnick offer some upside, Edgar Gonzalez and Orber Moreno are the prizes here. Neither looks like a strong bet to open the year in the majors right now, but if either pitcher makes his respective team, he merits serious consideration towards the end of your draft. Certainly target Gonazlez in any keeper league since his future looks very bright given his age and skill set.