Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with $3 DV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

121.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt J. Miller		0	0	2.08	1.62	5	2	5	4.1
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-3		-6

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Colorado for my comments on Miller.

122.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chad Zerbe		1	0	4.71	1.49	17	14	60	49.2
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-5		0
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-3		-6		0

Pitching for any other team likely would expose Zerbe as a borderline major leaguer, but San Francisco mutes his weaknesses. His 1.63 G-F and 2.5 BB/9 also limit the downside of a pitcher who appears very hittable and displays almost no dominance. Zerbe looks like acceptable roster filler in an emergency, however his practically non-existent upside makes him a poor fantasy choice in general.

123.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ricky Bottalico		1	0	5.40	3.00	2	2	3	1.2
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-3		-5		-4
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	-3		-6		-4

While Bottalico should spend spring training in a big league camp, he appears unlikely to earn a roster spot and might not see too much more time in the majors. He spent most of 2003 at AAA Tucson(PCL), compiling a 3.66 ERA on a 28:16 K:BB in 39.1 IP with 39 H and 4 HR over 31 games. These aren't great marks for a formerly successful closer, and his recent seasons in the majors don't indicate significant upside. As long as he suffers from command problems and lacks a secure roster spot, Bottalico isn't a viable option for any fantasy owner.

124.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Pat Mahomes		0	0	4.84	1.39	13	12	19	22.1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5		-3
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	-3		-6		-3

Signing with Montreal gives Mahomes a fair shot at earning a major league job this spring, though after his unimpressive 2003, he probably doesn't merit that opportunity. Mahomes compiled an 8-4 record and a 2.67 ERA on a 28:21 K:B in 64 IP with 55 H and 4 HR over 38 games, and that weak dominance is a particularly bad fit for a club that spends a quarter of their games in the first half at the majors' worst pitchers' park. Barring unexpectedly strong skill ratios at the beginning of the season, Mahomes won't even deserve consideration as roster filler from fantasy owners.

125.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kirk Bullinger		0	0	6.75	1.00	5	1	7	8
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	-3		-6

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Houston for my comments on Bullinger.

126.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Eric Knott		1	0	5.12	1.50	17	6	23	19.1
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-6		-3
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-3		-6		-3

While Knott didn't display great skills with the Expos, his 7.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 2.07 G-F all are solid marks. At AAA Edmonton(PCL), he compiled a 4.32 ERA on a 38:13 K:BB in 77 IP over 10 GS(24G) with 102 H and 6 HR. Signing with the Dodgers gives him his best chance of winning a roster spot with a team that will limit his hit rate problems, so if Knott beats out the other half-dozen AAAA lefties vying for no more than two bullpen slots, Knott at least should be good roster filler.

127.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Sauerbeck		3	0	4.76	1.59	50	43	47	56.2
PIT/BOS		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		1		1
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-2		-4		1		1

While a rising walk rate made Sauerbeck a poor fantasy option in almost any circumstance, he certainly isn't viable now after requiring season-ending shoulder surgery a couple of weeks ago. Since his current status as a free agent also means we don't know where he'll pitch next year, do not draft Sauerbeck in any league.

128.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Charles Nagy		0	0	4.38	1.46	7	3	15	12.1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-3		-6		-3
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	-3		-6		-3		R

Considering Nagy accepted a position as Special Assistant to GM Mark Shapiro in Cleveland, he appears finished in the majors despite no publicized7 retirement notice. While injuries kept him from enjoying an overly successful career, he still excelled as the Indians' ace for a few years, including 1995 and 1997, Cleveland's only World Series appearances since 1954. Even if he hadn't helped roto teams for years, spring training won't be the same without hearing reports about his latest comeback from another injury.

129.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Watson		0	0	4.50	1.50	2	1	2	2
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-3		-6

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Cincinnati for my comments on Watson.

130.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Riedling		2	1	4.90	1.52	65	47	107	101
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		3		2
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-2		-4		2		4

Ignoring his eight starts when the Reds mistakenly inserted him into the rotation, Reidling compiled a 3.58 ERA on a 49:28 K:BB in 65.1 IP with 59 H and 5 HR over 47 games. More importantly, he managed a 2.82 ERA on a 31:10 K:BB in 38.1 IP with 27 H and 2 HR in 29 relief appearances in the second half, after his arm recovered from the stress of starting and right elbow tendinitis during the first few months of the season. Now Riedling enters the season with Chris Reitsma and Ryan Wagner as a trifecta of potentially dominant set-up men for Danny Graves. I see no reason not to draft Riedling if you want a rather decently low-risk middle reliever with a history of somewhat promising skills, however as he appears no better than fourth in line for saves, don't expect much from him other than a couple bucks of decent qualitative stats.

131.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Lance Painter		0	0	5.50	1.33	11	7	17	18
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-6		-3
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	-3		-6		-3

After not pitching in 2002, a torn hamstring cost him all but 13.1 innings in the first half, and then a combination of a ruptured calf tendon and a torn Achilles tendon effectively ended his season at the end of July. With his skills in decline, his health uncertain, and no team expressing much interest in him, Painter offers little upside to MLB franchise or fantasy owners.

132.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Christiansen		0	0	5.19	1.38	22	11	25	26
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		-2
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	-3		-6		-2

Christiansen enters the season over 21 months removed for Tommy John surgery, so he should be fully healthy this spring. Despite a growing flyball problem, his overall skills suggest much more immediate upside than his poor ERA, and if he regains his effectiveness against right-handers, he could regain his place among the majors' most dominant and effective relievers. Of course, most fantasy owners still should treat Christiansen as roster filler at best until he amasses a couple dozen innings with good skills, however sim owners might want to consider him now considering his impressive performance against lefties both in 2003 and prior to his injury.

133.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt Ford		0	0	4.33	1.53	26	21	46	43.2
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:S	4x4:	-3		-6		-1
2003 Age: 22	5x5:	-3		-6		-1

Relatively minor elbow surgery ended Ford's Rule 5 season in mid-July, but as long as recovers by spring training as expected, he probably enters camp as a favorite for a lefty reliever slot. While his .56 G-F and reverse platoon split don't suggest much upside, he at least pitched much better out of the bullpen than in his four starts. Ford compiled a 2.15 ERA on a 17:11 K:BB in 29.1 IP with 22 H and 0 HR over 21 games in relief, and since his control should improve after his first season above A-ball and his elbow will be healthier, he could emerge as an interesting roto option. I certainly can't recommend him now considering his unknown health status and role, however Ford could develop rapidly if handled well by the Brewers, especially if they give let him spend part of the year in the minors until he begins dominating opponents.

134.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kevin Walker		0	0	5.40	1.50	5	5	5	6.2
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-6		-2		1
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-6		-2

Sterling Hitchcock should contribute to San Diego's lefty relief corps, however Walker should be the primary left-handed if he stays healthy. While he required Tommy John surgery in August of 2001, continued problems with his elbow limited his time in the majors during the last two years. Walker spent most of 2003 at AAA Portland(PCL), compiling a 3-1 record and 4.08 ERA on a 43:10 K:BB in 46.1 IP with 53 H and 5 HR over 34 games. His impressive command in the minors suggests a high likelihood of him returning to effectiveness in 2004, so although you should wait until at least May to roster Walker to minimize your risk by insuring he displays respectable skills, I expect him to contribute to many successful roto teams in the second half.

135.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brady Raggio		0	1	6.48	1.80	8	6	9	8.1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-3		-6

Raggio unsurprisingly re-signed with the Diamondbacks after they gave him his first shot in the majors since 1998. Of course, he also pitched very well at AAA Tucson(PCL), compiling a 3.49 ERA on a 32:8 K:BB in 56.2 IP with 60 H and 4 HR over 7 GS(18G). He owns sufficient skills for us to expect him to return to the big leagues in the near future, yet his difficulties with Arizona last year indicate a worrisome downside. Don't roster Raggio until he translates his solid minor league performance into major league success.

136.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Peter Munro		3	0	4.67	1.65	27	26	63	54
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		-2		R
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-3		-6		-3		R

Munro pitched fairly poorly for four months with Houston and then pitched even worse in a month at AAA New Orleans. Signing with Minnesota this winter at least gives him a better shot at winning a roster spot than he would with many other teams, but Munro just doesn't belong in the majors unless he command abruptly improved over the winter. Don't draft him this spring, and then wait until Munro spends at least a few weeks in the majors while compiling decent skills before even considering him for your team.

137.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Foster		2	0	4.71	1.81	16	8	30	21
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-6		-4
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-6		-4

Following his trade to the Brewers with Wes Helms for Ray King, Foster earned a roster spot in spring training and then quickly found himself on the Milwaukee-Indianapolis shuttle. While he displayed decent overall skill, left-handers crushed him, posting a ridiculous .391/.440/1.043 performance against him. Fortunately, Foster recovered at AAA Indianapolis(IL), compiling a 3.70 ERA on a 37:13 K:BB in 41.1 IP with 44 H and 4 HR over 27 games, suggesting he could return as an intriguing option in the near future. The Cubs snagged him in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft, yet while he now appears stuck in the minors for another year, Chicago isn't that deep in lefty relievers and could need him. Of course, fantasy owners still should wait until Foster returns to the majors and demonstrates his poor 2003 was a fluke before rostering him.

138.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jayson Durocher		2	0	11.05	1.50	7	2	9	7.1
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		1		R
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-3		-7		0		R

Despite these poor numbers, Durocher's command ratio still suggests he should succeed if avoids further arm troubles. The Brewers erred in non-tendering him given Milwaukee's lack of veteran right-handers and Durocher's minor league success, although signing with the Blue Jays seems like a bad decision given Toronto's hitter-friendly home park and questionable defense. His .64 G-F appears particularly susceptible to SkyDome's influence, making Durocher a poor gamble even if he unexpectedly breaks camp in the majors. Avoid him until Durocher begins echoing his 2002 performance once he returns to the majors.

139.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Geoff Geary		0	0	4.50	1.83	3	3	8	6
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-7

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Philadelphia for my comments on Geary.

140.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Hector Mercado		0	1	5.79	1.61	15	12	18	18.2
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		0
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	-3		-6		0

After parts of four seasons in the majors in which Mercado failed to maintain the decent control he demonstrated in the minors, he'll head to Japan this season as a member of the Daiei Hawks. While I still believe he possesses the skills to enjoy some success in the majors, he obviously isn't a viable roto option in 2004.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Twenty largely unimpressive pitchers who mostly suffered through a year of ineffectiveness and/or injury give me few players to unilaterally recommend. I have the most faith in the success of Matt Miller and Jason Christiansen, but I don't know how much playing time either pitcher will find. Everyone listed above looks like roster filler at best right now, so don't plan on targeting any of them unless their likely roles change before your draft.