Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with $-2 DV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

108.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ryan Madson		0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	2
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-2		-5
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		-6

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Philadelphia for my comments on Madson.

109.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Juan Alvarez		0	0	3.09	1.37	6	8	8	11.2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-5		-3
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	-3		-6		-3

A growing homer problem, not to mention his generally high hit rates, prevents Alvarez from succeeding in the majors. He even struggled at AAA Albuquerque(PCL), compiling a 5.88 ERA on a 42:24 K:BB in 52 IP over 51 G with 69 H and 9 HR. Even if finds a pitcher-friendly park in which to pitch this year, Alvarez is a bad pick in any fantasy league.

110.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Steve Colyer		0	0	2.75	1.58	16	9	22	19.2
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-5		-2
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		-5		-3

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Los Angeles for my comments on Colyer.

111.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kirk Saarloos		2	0	4.93	1.46	43	17	55	49.1
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-5		0		1
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		-4		1		1

While his qualitative stats and roto value simply don't reflect his overall skill, Saarloos experienced a nice growth year after he received three promotions in 2002. He compiled a 5-0 record and 3.08 ERA on a 34:11 K:BB in 61.1 IP over 7 GS(13G) with 54 H and 4 HR at AAA New Orleans(PCL). Frankly his elevated hit rate makes little sense from a statistical point of view given his excellent 2.02 G-F and the Astros' solid infield. We know he isn't a traditional power pitcher, his skill ratios suggest significant upside. Saarloos' biggest problem is that he enters spring training no higher than 8th on the organization's list of starters and perhaps no better than 6th among right-handed relievers. The 2.97 ERA he managed on a 27:13 K:BB in 36.1 IP with 37 H and 2 HR over 32 games in relief certainly should solidify a roster spot, but until we see a firm commitment to him from Houston, we can't consider him more than a speculative endgame gamble. While he possesses slightly more value in long-term keeper leagues, we can't recommend him enthusiastically at the moment as long as he roles remains uncertain.

112.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Corey		1	0	5.34	1.32	27	11	29	30.1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-5		-3
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-2		-5		-3

I realize Mark Corey is a potentially dominant major league reliever who deserves an extended look this spring training. He saved 30 games at AAA Nashville(PCL), compiling a 4.34 ERA on a 63:18 K:BB in 45.2 IP with 37 H and 5 HR. Corey normally dominates right-handed batters, and even a sub-1.00 G-F didn't affect his effectiveness in 2003. However, keeping him on the 40-man roster all winter while losing 5 players in the Rule 5 draft was an example of flagrantly incompetent roster management. Brian Boehringer, Brian Meadows, Salomon Torres, and probably both Juan Acevedo and Jose Mesa are assured roster spots as right-handed relievers ahead of Corey, giving him little shot of breaking camp in the majors barring an outstanding spring. He simply isn't one of Pittsburgh's best options right now, and considering the limited upside of most of his fellow relievers, he doesn't belong on any owner's draft day list. Although Corey could emerge as a viable option later in the year, unless he unexpectedly wins the closer's job, wait until at least May before considering him for your team.

113.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Josh Hancock		0	0	3.00	.67	4	0	2	3
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-5		-3
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-6		-3

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Philadelphia for my comments on Hancock.

114.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Boehringer		5	0	5.49	1.51	47	30	64	62.1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:S	4x4:	-2		-5		1		1
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	-2		-4		1		R

Boehringer enters spring training as the Pirates' most established reliever despite a ridiculous reverse platoon split and an awful average performance in road games. His homer rate jumped from .6 to 1.6 HR/9 as his ground-fly ratio remained lodged well below his .82 career G-F. Poor dominance and diminishing control apparently combined to make him one of the most useless pitchers in the game, and yet a glimmer of hope emerged towards the end of the year. Boehringer managed a 4.15 ERA on a 24:13 K:BB in 26 IP with 24 H and 3 HR over 23 appearances after the All-Star break. Since he normally struggles in the second half, he just might rebound in 2004. Of course, I still expect his qualitative stats to remain terrible and he won't receive any save opportunities, but if Boehringer somehow wins the closer's job, I see enough upside here to sanction a low double-digit bid. Don't draft him in any other role.

115.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt Belisle		1	0	5.19	1.38	6	2	10	8.2
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:S	4x4:	-2		-5
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		-6

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Cincinnati for my comments on Belisle.

116.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Josh Pearce		0	0	3.00	1.44	4	2	11	9
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-5		-3
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		-6		-4

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: St. Louis for my comments on Pearce.

117.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Juan Cerros		0	0	4.85	1.23	9	5	11	13
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-5
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-6

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Cincinnati for my comments on Cerros.

118.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Grabow		0	0	3.60	1.20	9	0	6	5
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-5
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		-6

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Pittsburgh for my comments on Grabow.

119.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Roberto Hernandez		5	0	4.35	1.73	45	43	61	60
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-5		2		1
2003 Age: 38	5x5:	-2		-4		1		3

A strained abdominal muscle and strained hamstring each cost Hernandez roughly two weeks on the DL, but his declining skills made him an unacceptable alternative to John Smoltz even when healthy. Hernandez's 6.5 BB/9 and 1.5 HR/9 combined to eliminate most remaining vestiges of his roto value. Now, while his career-best 1.96 G-F suggests his homer rate might drop, I see no evidence his command will return. Philadelphia signed Hernandez to add veteran depth to their pen, however unless he abruptly reverses his declining skills, he could lose his roster spot by the trade deadline to another experienced reliever or one of the half-dozen quality youngsters likely stuck in the minors thanks to the Hernandez signing. Despite his long history of impressive work, you simply can't risk selecting Hernandez in any draft this spring, especially since Tim Worrell and Rheal Cormier will grab any extra save opportunities.

120.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Simontacchi		9	1	5.56	1.54	74	41	153	126.1
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-5		5		3
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-1		-3		5		4

The arrival of Jason Marquis should complete Simontacchi's transition to the bullpen, although he doesn't even appear guaranteed a roster spot right now. However, while he simply isn't a quality starter, he compiled a 3.95 ERA on a 22:11 K:BB in 41 IP with 51 H and 2 HR over 30 games in relief, which should enable him to break camp as the long reliever if he enjoys a strong spring. Unfortunately, his continually severe home run problem despite a decent 1.29 G-F should keep him from earning any significant roto value this year, so unless you observe unexpected skill development, Simontacchi isn't even a good choice as roster filler.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While the only prize here is Ryan Madson, he stands a lesser chance of seeing significant playing time in 2004 than a few other pitchers discussed above. Fellow Phillie Josh Hancock and lefties Steve Colyer and John Grabow all could break camp in the respective bullpens of Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and Pittsburgh, and they each offer intriguing upside despite appearing poor fantasy picks right now. Kirk Saarloos is the true sleeper here, but his chance of contributing as more than a middle reliever this year is much smaller than Madson's likely limited chance at the Philadelphia rotation. Spring training performances will decide where these pitchers debut this year, however Madson is the only one that merits consideration even as a minor leaguer.