Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with $-2 DV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

94.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Darren Holmes		1	0	4.29	1.38	46	11	47	42
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4		3		1
2003 Age: 37	5x5:	-1		-3		2

Various injuries sidelined Holmes for a few months, however even though he finished the year pitching with a partial rotator cuff tear, that problem could keep him out of baseball in 2004. Of course, his continued dominance of right-handers, combined with his extremely solid overall skill level, definitely should earn him a couple more seasons in the majors. Holmes obviously isn't worth drafting this spring since he still hasn't signed, but if earns a mid-season call-up, he certainly could help as roster filler.

95.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Reith		2	1	4.11	1.58	39	36	61	61.1
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-1		-3

Given his recent minor league performance, including a 1.96 ERA on a 28:9 K: in 23 IP with 12 H and 1 HR over 16 G at AAA Louisville(IL), Reith probably should stay in the majors. Unfortunately, his command again deteriorated after he joined the Reds, and as the fifth right-hander in their bullpen, he isn't guaranteed a roster spot. His control and homer problems also make him a poor fantasy selection even if Cincinnati keeps him, so until you see Reith translate his solid minor league numbers into major league success, don't roster him.

96.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Pedro Feliciano		0	0	3.35	1.51	43	21	52	48.1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-4
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-1		-3

While Mike Stanton and John Franco appear assured of making the Mets this year, the trade of Jaime Cerda to Kansas City gives Feliciano an excellent opportunity to spend another year in the majors with New York. He isn't an especially effective pitcher, but after displaying solid command in the Mets' system for a couple years, Feliciano may fit their bullpen better than one of the half-dozen young right-handers vying for playing time. Since New York removed him from the 40-man roster, I suspect he'll head to the minors until a Stanton or Franco injury, however Feliciano's skills suggests he won't hurt your team if needed as roster filler, although he possesses little upside for any fantasy team.

97.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Julio Manon		1	1	4.13	1.52	15	17	26	28.1
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	-2		-4

Omar Minaya sold Manon to the Kia Tigers of the Korean League in December, essentially mocking Manon by stating his belief that he can find similar players as minor league free agents. Of course, Manon's 5.4 BB/9 and .63 G-F in 23 games in relief indicates Manon is worse than many minor league free agents, so selling him to Korea wasn't a bad move for the Expos. While Manon's 2.14 ERA at AAA Edmonton(PCL) appeared solid, his 48:19 K:B in 42 IP with 33 H and 4 HR wasn't fantastic, especially when his control problems continued in the majors. He obviously isn't worth drafting this spring in any league.

98.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Service		0	1	4.72	1.34	35	8	38	34.1
ARI/TOR		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	-1		-4

A rather severe platoon split and a .83 G-F negated much of the potential suggested by any pitcher with a 9.2 K/9 and a 2.1 BB/9. Service failed to hold a bullpen spot with both Arizona and Toronto, and while he didn't pitch badly, he apparently didn't impress many people since he still hasn't signed this winter. Although his skills suggest some upside, his repeatedly poor qualitative marks and inconsistent rack make him too risky to own in most fantasy leagues even if he returns to the majors soon.

99.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Toby Borland		0	0	1.86	1.14	4	8	3	9.2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	-2		-5

Despite severe control problems and weak dominance, Borland pitched effectively for both AAA Albuquerque(PCL) and Florida before appendicitis and bone chips in his elbow ended his season in May. He returns to the Marlins for a third straight season this year, however even an absence of many experienced right-handers in camp probably won't lead to Borland winning a bullpen spot. Expect him to see a few innings at some point as an injury replacement, but nothing in his statistical portfolio indicates any fantasy upside.

100.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Crudale		0	0	2.61	1.45	13	18	12	20.2
STL/MIL		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4		2		4
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-5		1		2

A broken toe in April that cost Crudale a couple weeks on the minor league likely contributed to his problems last year, however he never regained the dominance he displayed in 2002. Homer problems plagued him in the minors, but he at least demonstrated some effectiveness after his trade to Milwaukee as he only allowed one hit despite facing 34 batters. Of course, severe control problems leave him fighting for a roster spot this spring with several other Brewers' relievers, yet while you shouldn't draft Crudale this spring, he could reemerge as a solid option at any time as long as his skills approach the 47:14 K:BB in 52.2 IP he compiled two years ago .

101.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Trevor Hoffman		0	0	2.00	1.11	11	3	7	9
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4		2		8
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	-2		-5		1		6

Despite a couple of simultaneous surgeries to repair his collarbone and labrum last May, Hoffman returned to the Padres in September, struggling against right-handed but pitching fairly effectively overall. Since Opening Day falls nearly a year after his tune-up, only age-related problems appear likely to prevent Hoffman from regaining his pre-2003 form. He demonstrated dominance, control, and even a respectable 1.14 G-F in 9 appearances, making him a good gamble anywhere near $20. Anyone rostering Hoffman also should target Rod Beck as a back-up, but I don't expect the Padres' long-term closer to share many save opportunities.

102.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Eric Junge		0	0	3.52	.78	5	1	5	7.2
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4		-3
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-5		-3

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Philadelphia for my comments on Junge.

103.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brandon Villafuerte		0	2	4.20	1.60	34	26	39	40.2
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4		14		5
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-4		12		10

He displayed little control after winning the closer's job in April, blowing two of four save opportunities before hitting the DL in mid-May with a shoulder strain. Fortunately, while he spent the next three months in the minors, he at least dominated at AAA Portland(PCL), compiling a 1.84 ERA and 12 Saves on a 40:14 K:BB in 4 IP over 37 G with 42 H and 1 HR. Villafuerte historically possesses respectable command and little downside thanks to good groundball rates, so he should be able to succeed if Arizona gives him a chance this year. Although he appears unlikely to beat out Mike Koplove, Brandon Lyon, or one of several young Diamondacks for a spot at the end of the bullpen this spring, continued effectiveness in the PCL should earn hi a promotion by mid-season. Make sure his walk rate is near 3.0 BB/9 before rostering him, but I still have faith that Villafuerte will emerge in the relatively near future as a productive short reliever for a few seasons.

104.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kevin Ohme		0	0	0.00	.92	2	1	3	4.1
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-5
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	-3		-5

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: St. Louis for my comments on Ohme.

105.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jose Mercedes		0	0	0.00	1.50	3	5	6	7.1
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-5
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	-2		-5

The only addition to the Expos' roster in September, Mercedes at least didn't allow an earned run in 5 appearances despite weak overall skills. We don't know if he'll return to the big leagues in 2004, however after compiling a 14-6 record and 3.71 ERA on a 114:53 K:BB in 160 IP over 22 GS for Santillo of the Mexican League, he still retains the skills to succeed if given another opportunity. While you shouldn't draft him this spring, Mercedes might help some teams whenever he receives his next chance in the majors.

106.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Trey Hodges		3	0	4.66	1.52	66	31	69	65.2
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-5		0		R
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-1		-3		0		R

Hodges deserved an Atlanta rotation spot last year more than Horacio Ramirez or Shane Reynolds, yet he instead spent almost all season in the bullpen after never receiving a fair shot during spring training. The Braves simply don't appear to like his stuff as a starter, so despite a high likelihood of success in that role, a more touted like Bubba Nelson appears more likely than Hodges to receive an extended look during the spring. While I still expect Hodges to spend some time in the rotation, particularly after the trade of Jason Marquis, we instead need to hope that his sore elbow caused his second-half problems and that his 3.38 ERA on a 49:19 K:BB in 45.1 IP better demonstrates his current skill level. Gambling more than a couple bucks on Hodges is a definite risk despite our expectations of long-term success for him.

107.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Roy Corcoran		0	0	1.23	1.36	2	3	7	7.1
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-5
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		-6

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Montreal for my comments on Corcoran.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Trevor Hoffman and Trey Hodges each possess more immediate roto potential than anyone I've discussed in the past few days. Hoffman appears perfectly healthy, and while I don't expect him to resume dominating all opponents, he easily merits a bid of $20 or more since he should save at least 30 games while posting helpful qualitative marks. While Hodges won't attain that level of fantasy effectiveness any time soon, he deserves the Braves' fifth starter's job and should approach double-digit value with a little luck. His minor league skills suggest significant upside, so while his 2003 skills weren't overly impressive, we believe he should succeed for Atlanta this year.