Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with $-1 DV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

78.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jay Witasick		3	2	4.53	1.47	42	25	42	45.2
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2		2		8
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	0		-2		2		5

Last spring Witasick inflamed an elbow ligament while taking out garbage bags and didn't join the Padres until June. While he pitched decently well, his control slipped in the second half as he posted his worst overall stats in three seasons. Fortunately, a career-best 1.86 G-F limits his downside, so if his walk rate improves, he should emerge as a moderately useful roto option. Don't draft him this spring since he only looks like roster filler now, however as long as his WHIP stays under 1.40 during the season, he won't hurt your team when needed.

79.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Gallo		1	0	3.00	1.27	16	10	28	30
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-2
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-1		-3

Even with Tim Redding in the rotation and Jeriome Robertson likely headed to the Astros' bullpen, I still expect Houston to keep Gallo on the roster at the beginning of the year after his relatively solid performance in the second half. He limited lefties to a .227/.255/.318, a needed talent on the Astros given their four right-handed starters and the several solid left-handed batters in the division. Of course, I don't view him as a good roto option since a .95 G-F and a low 4.8 K/9 give Gallo troublesome downside, but as long as he holds a 3.0 BB/9 and 9.0 H/9 or better, he shouldn't hurt you if briefly needed as roster filler.

80.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Michael Tejera		3	2	4.67	1.46	58	36	82	81
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-2		1
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	0		-1		1		R

Tejera somewhat shockingly spent the year as a lefty specialist despite demonstrating better skills while starting and allowing left-handers to hit .392/.442/.595 off him, compared to only a .224/.298/.329 from right-handed batters. At least a career-best 1.27 G-F contributed to a homer rate drop, however he still lacks dominance and suffers from control problems. Perhaps he could reemerge as an acceptable starting option at some point this year, however he simply doesn't look like a pitcher you want on your fantasy team given his current skill set.

81.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dave Veres		2	1	4.68	1.26	26	5	36	32.2
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2		1		4
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	-1		-3		1		3

The added rotation depth on Houston forces a few potentially solid starters into competing for bullpen roles, and I don't know if they have enough spots for Veres, especially since he only signed a minor league deal. Shoulder tendinitis prevented him from pitching more than a few innings in Chicago until July, yet while he exhibited a worrisome reverse platoon split, his skills suggest some immediate roto potential. Of course, while a 7.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 normally ranks as a good combination, his career-worst .91 G-F mutes the command improvement, particularly given his return to pitching for his original team. I see a couple dozen NL pitchers more likely to win roster spots than Veres, and not only do they also pitch in better pitchers' park, they lack Veres' downside. Even considering him as roster filler this year is an obvious risk to your qualitative stats.

82.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tommy Phelps		3	0	4.00	1.48	43	23	70	63
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-3		-3
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-1		-2		-3

The rookie lefty demonstrated some upside as a relief specialist, however he posted better skills as a starter and also didn't see any playing time in the post-season. Now, while 6.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and .4 HR/9 all illustrate a fairly low-risk pitcher, I also see little reason to roster Phelps at all. If he breaks camp in the majors, he might not hurt you as roster filler, but his nearly complete lack of upside gives fantasy owners little reason to target him until he earns a more significant role.

83.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Carlos Silva		3	1	4.43	1.48	48	37	92	87.1
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-3		3		R
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-1		-2		3		R

Instead of emerging as a dominant reliever, Silva largely regressed in his second big league season. Dealt to Minnesota as the centerpiece of the Eric Milton deal, he still enters spring training as a candidate both for a rotation spot and the Twins' closing job, though he at least should break camp as a middle reliever. My concern is that irrespective of the skill stagnation, his irregular development path makes Silva a bad gamble. He started almost exclusively in the minors, looking like a very impressive prospect as he rose through the Philadelphia system. Then the Phillies jumped him past AAA to the majors in 2002, and now his strikeout and walk rates simply don't suggest much immediate upside. While Silva's long-term future is bright, I see no reason to target him before Dollar Days in spring drafts since we have no idea how he'll respond to whatever role Minnesota assigns him.

84.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jung Bong		6	1	5.05	1.53	47	31	56	57
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-3		-4
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	-1		-2		-4

Despite a name guaranteed to draw fan comments whenever he enters a game, particular for a pitcher in a division with the Mets, Bong handled the move to the majors rather nicely despite only a brief AAA appearance. The only problems with his skills are a 4.1 BB/9 and surprisingly elevated homer rate, but both those marks should improve as he gains experience. Unfortunately, he self-destructed in the second half after compiling a 3.83 ERA on a 41:21 K:BB in 47 IP with 44 H and 4 HR over 34 first-half games. My main concern is that he'll win the fifth starter's job this spring, which would place him at significant injury risk since he only pitched 21.1 innings in the second half. I hope he spends another few months in the Atlanta bullpen, refining his command and regaining his pre-All-Star break effectiveness. Of course, he probably merits a minimum investment in any role, particularly in keeper leagues, however drafting Bong remains an obvious gamble until he shows his first-half success wasn't a fluke.

85.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dave Burba		1	0	3.53	1.41	35	19	42	43.1
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-3		-1
2003 Age: 37	5x5:	-1		-3		-2

After his career seemed almost over following a poor 2002 season, Burba headed to the minors following his failure to break camp with Cleveland. He didn't pitch badly at AAA Buffalo(IL), compiling a 2.05 ERA on a 10:5 K:BB in 22 IP over 4 GS, and he took advantage of an out clause in his contract to move to the Brewers' affiliate at AAA Indianapolis(IL). While his 5.33 ERA appears bad, his 34:16 K:BB in 50.2 IP over 9 GS(10G) suggests some upside, especially when we consider poor defense led to many of the 65 hits he allowed. Milwaukee promoted him at the end of June, and although he didn't dominate and struggled in two starts, he rebounded once moved to the bullpen. Burba's 30:14 K:BB in 33.2 IP over 15 G with 29 H and 3 HR almost insures his spot on the team this spring. Even though I can't recommend him for fantasy teams due to his essentially non-existent upside, his comeback is an impressive accomplishment, so if he can echo these skills in April and May, he might not hurt you as occasional roster filler.

86.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Phil Norton		0	0	3.00	1.00	7	9	9	18
CHC/CIN		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-1		-3
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-4

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Cincinnati for my comments on Norton.

87.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Grant Roberts		0	1	3.79	1.16	10	3	19	19
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-3		-1
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-4		-1		R

Shoulder tendinitis sidelined Roberts until August, however while his strikeout rate plummeted upon his return, his overall effectiveness should insure he receives serious consideration for a roster spot in spring training. Unfortunately, I keep seeing rumors suggesting Roberts might start, but given his success in relief over the last three years, I expect Roberts to break camp in the Mets' bullpen. Even if he doesn't dominate hitters immediately and lacks significant long-term upside, consistent control and little overt downside make Roberts a safe endgame gamble.

88.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Stewart		3	0	3.98	1.51	29	13	52	43
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-1		-3		10		17
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-1		-3		9		9

Moving from Montreal to Cleveland may reduce Stewart's fantasy upside due to the Indians' depth of potential closers, but escaping a half season spent in increasingly severe hitters' parks could drop his qualitative marks significantly. We also can expect a rebound in most of his skills since Stewart now is over a year removed from arm surgery and won't miss another six weeks with appendicitis. However, while he suffered from a poor hit rate and didn't dominate hitters, he at least demonstrated decent control last year, so Stewart easily could post career-best marks in 2004. Stewart should emerge as one of the top middle relievers in the AL, meriting at least a couple bucks this spring in any AL-only league.

89.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Strickland		0	0	2.25	1.30	16	10	16	20
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-3		4		2
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-4		4		R

As Strickland required Tommy John surgery last June, we can't expect him to pitch effectively in the majors until at least the All-Star break this year. The biggest problem Strickland faces is regaining his control since he normally posted poor walk rates even before the injury. His future remains quite bright, but considering he won't see the majors for much of the season and won't see any save opportunities once he returns thanks to the Braden Looper signing, don't invest in Strickland in spring drafts.

90.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
T.J. Tucker		2	0	4.73	1.38	47	20	90	80
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-3		-3		1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-1		-3		-3		1

Tucker almost certainly will spend another year in the majors with Montreal, though his likely role appears dependent on the health of returning starters Tony Armas, Zach Day, and Claudio Vargas. Considering he posted a 4.05 ERA on a 16:1 K:BB in 26.2 IP with 33 H and 1 HR over 7 starts, he at least possesses the necessary skills to succeed in a rotation, if not the stamina. Command and homer problems contributed to a 5.06 ERA in 38 games out of the bullpen, but Tucker fortunately maintained respectable control despite his hitter-friendly home parks. A 1.81 G-F and a strong second half performance combine to make him an intriguing pick, however don't draft Tucker unless you can reserve him at your leisure when the Expos play in Puerto Rico. He looks like a much better option once they return to Montreal full-time after the All-Star game.

91.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Noah Lowry		0	0	0	0.47	5	2	1	6.1
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-3
2003 Age: 22	5x5:	-2		-4

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: San Francisco for my comments on Lowry.

92.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Nate Bump		4	0	4.71	1.49	17	20	34	36.1
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-3
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-4

San Francisco's 1st round pick in 1998 finally debuted in the majors, pitching moderately effectively during the second half and playoffs. Although his .9 K:BB is quite troublesome, a 2.50 G-F at least minimizes Bump's downside. He compiled a 4.43 ERA on a 52:24 K:BB in 85.1 IP over 15 GS with 89 H and 4 HR at AAA Albuquerque(PCL), so considering he never really relieved until 2003, I don't believe he pitched too badly. Of course, his weak 5.0 walk rate makes him a poor choice for any roto team right now, but he possesses the skills to emerge as a fantasy contributor within the next couple of seasons.

93.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Troy Brohawn		2	0	3.86	1.20	13	4	10	11.2
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-3		-3
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	-2		-4		-3

Rotator cuff tendinitis ended Brohawn's increasingly promising season in May, and now he must compete with roughly a half-dozen other quality AAA left-handers for the job as the Dodgers' alternate lefty to Tom Martin. Unfortunately, while he offers some upside and might immediately rebound into an effective reliever, Brohawn probably ranks behind at least Martin, Wilson Alvarez, and Steve Corey on Los Angeles' depth chart of left-handers. Don't draft Brohawn this spring, but if he emerges as the 2004 version of Martin, feel free to employ him as roster filler, though avoid any trips to Colorado due to Brohawn's perpetually poor groundball rate.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Carlos Silva, Jung Bong, and Grant Roberts possess the most upside among today's pitchers, however none of them appear particularly good roto gambits at the moment. All three should spend the year in middle relief, although each could win a starting job, and Silva also might see some save opportunities. However, until your see one of these youngsters earn a more significant role, avoid them as anything more than endgame flyers, instead targeting a much safer bet like Scott Stewart, who appears ready to reemerge as a preeminent reliever.