Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with $0 DV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

65.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dustin Hermanson		3	1	4.06	1.37	39	24	70	68.2
STL/SF		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		0		3		R
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	0		0		3		R

A respectable post-season performance and six solid starts earned Hermanson another shot in San Francisco. He enters spring training this month as the Giants' likely fifth starter, and while his place on the roster isn't assured, he owns the skills necessary to succeed regardless of his role. Hermanson compiled a 22:10 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 6 GS with 30 H and 5 HR in 2003. While he didn't dominate out of the bullpen, he maintained a good walk rate, and his 1.31 G-F is his best mark in a few seasons. Any San Francisco pitcher is a decent gamble given his home park and supporting defense, so Hermanson merits a low-round selection if he breaks camp in the majors. However, I still believe his best chance of remaining effective for a few years involves a complete conversion back to the bullpen. He likely will start a dozen or more games this season, but I simply don't see significant upside in his recent skill ratios.

66.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kiko Calero		1	1	2.82	1.28	51	20	29	38.1
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		0		-1
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	1		0		-2

A ruptured patellar tendon under Calero's right knee ended one of the most dominant seasons by a rookie reliever in recent memory. While neither a 4.7 BB/9 not a .60 G-F are good marks, his 12.0 K/9 and 6.8 H/9 indicate significant long-term upside. He also excelled in his one start, and after Kansas City kept him in the minors with little cause for years, he earned this solid debut. The injury unfortunately sets him back, particularly since St. Louis now fields a bullpen of six more experienced major league relievers with big league contracts. Calero could spend the year in the minors between his rehab and the Cardinals' roster depth, however he endeared himself to management last year and will receive another shot in the near future once healthy. Expect him to pitch a couple of dozen inning in the second half after a veteran reliever hits the DL, yet since we don't know either his role or recovery schedule, he merits little consideration in spring drafts.

67.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Stephen Randolph		8	0	4.05	1.55	50	43	50	60
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	0		0		-3
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	0		0		-4

In a banner year for Arizona rookies, Randolph emerged as one of only two youngsters to spend all of their debut seasons in the majors. Unfortunately, converting to the bullpen after a career spent mostly starting didn't fix his control problems as he finished the year with a 6.5 BB/9 and a walk-driven .351 OOBP, a worrisome mark given his .226 OBA. With a .74 G-F also boosting his homer rate, even a 7.5 K/9 doesn't help Randolph's roto value. Despite a relatively solid performance against lefties, he isn't a viable roto option in 2004 due to the low likelihood of Randolph winning another 8 games.

68.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Nelson Figueroa		2	0	3.31	1.16	23	13	28	35.1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		0		-2
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	0		-1		-3

A mostly effective season spent primarily at AAA Nashville(PCL) earned Figueroa a split contract with Pittsburgh for 2004. He compiled a 2.97 ERA and 12-5 record on a 121:37 K:BB in 151.1 IP over 23 GS with 144 H and 11 HR, suggesting he belongs in the majors in a regular role. Unfortunately, despite good control, a 1.04 G-F and corresponding 2.0 HR/9 severely reduce his immediate upside. Figueroa simply appears too volatile too own for most fantasy participants, and though his skills indicate intriguing potential in a relief role, make sure his overall numbers are solid before rostering him as in-season roster filler.

69.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ryan Wagner		2	0	1.66	1.15	25	12	13	21.2
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		-1
2003 Age: 21	5x5:	0		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Cincinnati for my comments on Wagner.

70.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Valerio de los Santos		4	1	4.50	1.35	39	25	45	52
MIL/PHI		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	0		-1		1
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	0		-1		1

After missing most of May with shoulder tendinitis, de los Santos' skills slowly declined over the rest of the season until he essentially gave the Phillies little reason to use him in September. Toronto obviously believes he'll rebound into a solid reliever, however since his career is far from impressive, I believe non-tendering Trever Miller to sign de los Santos was a mistake. De los Santos simply is too much of a risk due to his mediocre dominance, questionable control, and a normally poor homer rate. While he may emerge as a acceptable roster filler, do not draft him this spring.

71.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Franco		0	2	2.62	1.40	16	13	35	34.1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	0		-1		-2
2003 Age: 43	5x5:	-1		-2		-3

Franco remained relatively healthy over the last four months of 2003 following his return from Tommy John surgery and rehab. Owning a 43-year-old reliever inevitably qualifies as a risky proposition, however Franco demonstrated reasonably solid skills, and with the Mets' improved defense, his solid groundball rate could lead to unexpectedly impressive qualitative marks. He isn't worth more than a reserve pick due to his limited upside, but I see little reason not to employ him as roster filler whenever needed since Franco's only obvious downside involves another extended DL trip and his likely approaching retirement.

72.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chad Cordero		1	1	1.64	.64	12	3	4	11
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		-1
2003 Age: 21	5x5:	-1		-2

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Montreal for my comments on Cordero.

73.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kevin Gryboski		6	0	3.86	1.51	32	23	44	44.1
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		-1		-2
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	0		-1		-2

The fact that Gryboski enters spring training with the second most tenure of any Atlanta pitcher, second only to John Smoltz, simply seems wrong given the past fifteen years of relative stability for the franchise. Of course, the Braves should be more worried that Will Cunnane, Roberto Hernandez, Jaret Wright, and Gryboski comprise Smoltz's lineup set-up corps. While a variety of injuries limited Gryboski's effectiveness, he also finished the year with a partially torn labrum that could end his 2004 season at any time. A 3.48 G-F at least makes him a relatively safe gamble, however I see little upside here and no reason to risk a pick on him.

74.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Matthews		6	0	4.45	1.45	44	29	65	64.2
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	0		-1		-2
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	0		-1		-2

A career-best 1.62 G-F mutes his downside, but Matthews' 4.0 walk rate and declining dominance give him little value to roto owners. Moving from a San Diego franchise on the cusp of contention to a rebuilding Reds' team similarly limits his immediate potential, so while his second-half suggest mild improvement in the near future, he certainly won't merit a selection in spring drafts.

75.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Eyre		2	1	3.32	1.51	35	26	60	57
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	0		-1		1
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	0		-1		1

While Eyre's overall skills appear unimpressive, pitching in PacBell in front of a great defense gives him a little roto value. Of course, his WHIP problems and difficulties with right-handed batters make him a risky choice as more than roster filler, but he shouldn't hurt you if needed occasionally during the season.

76.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Guthrie		2	0	2.74	1.45	24	22	40	42.2
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	0		-1		1		1
2003 Age: 38	5x5:	-1		-2		0

He probably will sign with the Pirates in the next few days, his eighth team in seven seasons. Guthrie's 2003 season actually remarkably resembled the previous year. A drop from a 2.28 to 1.49 G-F was the only notable difference, and considering he never exceeded a 1.75 mark prior to 2002, we expected a mild downturn. My larger concern is that his dominance cratered to 5.1 K/9 while his walk and hit rates increased, strongly suggesting qualitative problems this year. I wouldn't expect him to earn positive roto value even in a pitcher-friendly environment, so if Guthrie joins Pittsburgh, avoid him this year barring an unlikely across-the-board skill rebound.

77.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Meadows		2	1	4.72	1.34	38	11	91	76.1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		-2		-3
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	0		-2		-3		R

Meadows stunned minor league followers by compiling a 40:0 K:BB in 51 innings for AAA Nashville(PCL) in 2003. His 1.41 ERA and 7-0 record also likely drew attention from the Pirates, insuring he spent most of the season in Pittsburgh. Despite a relatively poor hit rate, career-best marks of a 1.3 BB/9 and 1.39 G-F, as well as a 4.5 K/9, the second-best strikeout rate of his career, suggesting further success for Meadows. Of course, that success should involve him remaining in the bullpen since a 6.61 ERA and 13.0 H/9 in seven starts shouldn't endear him to anyone. More important, Meadows compiled a 3.40 ERA on a 26:7 K:BB in 45 IP over 27 G with 46 H and 3 HR for the Pirates, and he avoided a non-tender by quickly signing a 2004 major league deal following the close of last season. He should combine with Salomon Torres to give Pittsburgh a surprisingly effective relief corps, however his limited upside and past homer problems make him a questionable choice as more than roster filler for fantasy owners.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The two potential roto stars here are 2003 1st round draft picks Ryan Wagner and Chad Cordero. Both rookies should spend the year as one of the three primary right-handers in their respective pens, and both future studs could start closing at any time. Of course, don't bid more than a few bucks for either given their teams' hitter-friendly ballparks and questionable defense, however they at least look like great long-term options in established keeper leagues.