Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with DV from $2 to $4

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

34.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brad Lidge		6	1	3.60	1.20	97	42	60	85
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		7		1		1
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	5		8		2

Suggesting Houston convert Lidge to relief because of his potential to dominate out of the bullpen and his fragility as a starter easily ranked as one of my best comments from last year's reviews. While he lost significant roto value thanks to a poor second half, Lidge should rebound from that burnout to succeed impressively as he inherits Dotel's set-up role following the Wagner trade. Of course, his control problems and the potential of his .88 G-F leading to rising homer totals definitely worry me, but he merits a few bucks in any draft considering his quantitative upside at the end of the Astros' bullpen.

35.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jose Jimenez		2	20	5.22	1.66	45	32	137	101.2
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		7		13		20
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	4		6		11		16

Not that the Hampton and Neagle contracts didn't alert us to the fact that Dan O'Dowd can't properly value players, but by holding onto Jay Payton and Jimenez through the end of last season, he lost the chance to adding a couple of solid young players to the system. While Jimenez certainly isn't a great pitcher, anyone who owns great control and an excellent ground-fly ratio is decently valuable. Despite his 8.78 ERA in both April and June, his 3.18 ERA and his perfect conversion of five save opportunities in May should have insured interest in early June from some teams. Similarly, despite only blowing three saves in 22 opportunities in the first half, Jimenez effectively lost his closing job at the All-Star break, thereby completely torpedoing his trade value. The Rockies simply don't realize the current state of baseball economics, an issue further illuminated by their idiotic decision to replace Jimenez and Justin Speier at closer with Shawn Chacon, probably their best homegrown starter developed thus far. Fortunately for Jimenez, Cleveland realized he still possessed solid overall skills as a reliever and happily added him to their bullpen. He isn't a strong roto buy since Bob Wickman and David Riske appear first in line for save opportunities and Cleveland's infield defense is questionable, however consider Jimenez as a Dollar Days pick as I see no reason he can't reemerge as a closer somewhere by 2005.

36.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
David Weathers		1	7	3.08	1.45	75	40	87	87.2
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		6		1		R
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	4		7		1

New York's signing of Looper slots Stormy back in middle relief where he belongs. His 7.7 K/9 demonstrates his best dominance since Weathers debuted over a decade ago, but an unimpressive walk rate leaves him somewhat vulnerable to occasional qualitative disasters. Now the Mets' significantly improved defense and his overall skills make him a good Dollar Days' pick, but his relatively low quantitative upside keeps us from recommending him as more than endgame roster filler.

37.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Paul Shuey		6	0	3.00	1.20	60	33	50	69
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		6		7		1
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	4		6		6		1

The 33-year-old Shuey experienced mild decrease in nearly all his skills, and if he doesn't halt that decline, many more batters will begin to sock it to him. He slumped in the second half, yet with Paul Quantrill gone, Shuey must maintain his current level of effectiveness or the Dodgers risk losing the key bridge between their starters and short relievers Gagne and Mota. Shuey still owns enough upside to warrant a bid in almost any league, but he isn't someone to target since even expecting an echo of these stats is somewhat risky.

38.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Curtis Leskanic		5	2	2.22	1.27	50	29	38	52.2
MIL/KC		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		6		-2		R
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	3		5		-1		R

If you believe Leskanic can post another 1.73 ERA in a full year with the Royals, you probably should consider investing in bridges, including the London, Brooklyn, Donnie, Jeff, Todd, and Ye Olde Brydge to the 21st Centurie(possibly used once). A 1.33 G-F and 5.0 K/9 simply can't sustain that level of excellence without almost perfect defensive support. The good news here is that Leskanic's skills are rather close to those of Mike MacDougal, so if the Royals' current closer fails, Leskanic, who possesses more closing experience than Sullivan, Grimsley, or Carrasco, likely will receive the majority of save opportunities. Of course, recurring blister problems for Jeremy Affeldt could force him into short relief, but Leskanic otherwise looks like a good gamble for a buck or two if you need saves late in your draft.

39.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ricky Stone		6	1	3.69	1.29	47	31	76	83
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		5		-3
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	3		4		-3

Stone enters spring training as Houston's likely right-handed specialist even if Jimy Williams keeps using him indiscriminately during the season. The Astros' depth of experienced right-handers should allow them to keep Stone from facing many lefties, but even if they misuse him again, his decent control and great 2.12 career G-F limits his downside. While he doesn't belong on successful fantasy teams, he shouldn't hurt you if needed as occasional roster filler.

40.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Felix Rodriguez		8	2	3.10	1.44	46	29	59	61
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		5		8		8
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	3		4		8		4

FRod demonstrated decent effectiveness in April, pitched poorly in May and August, and then dominated in June, July, and September. His ERA dropped in the second half despite weaker skills, yet even though he could spend the year as the Giants' closer, I see enough questionable skills to require exercising caution when considering him for your team. Strained muscles in his side at least explain his poor August, so I also hope he can build on his second-half performance. He isn't a particularly valuable middle reliever to own, if Nen appears likely to miss significant time and FRod wins the closing job, feel free to approach $20 in bidding since any Giants' closer can earn that much.

41.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kyle Farnsworth		3	0	3.30	1.17	92	36	53	76.1
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		5		5		2
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	4		6		5		R

Acquiring LaTroy Hawkins probably will keep Farnsworth from closing anywhere until no earlier than 2006, but with his mind free of overwhelming off-field distractions, he should echo his 2003 rebound seasons quite strongly. If he maintains his 1.53 G-F while nudging his walk rate lower, Farnsworth should return to his 2001 ranking among the best relievers in the game. He easily should turn a decent profit on a minimum bid, and considering his skills, reaching double-digit value is definitely a possibility for the young fireballer. Tackling any more Cincinnati pitchers just would be a bonus.

42.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dan Miceli		2	1	3.20	1.19	58	25	59	70.1
COL/CLE/NYY/HOU		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		4		-4
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	3		4		-4

Pitching for four teams in four division in one season is a fascinating feat, however I'm more impressed by the fact that two teams traded for him thanks to his success in the AL after he flopped with the Rockies. He allowed 7 homers in 20.2 innings in Colorado, then posted a 1.20 ERA on a 19:6 K:BB in 15 IP with Cleveland. His dominance with the Indians earned him a move to New York, where a 5.79 ERA on a 1:3 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 7 G resulted in a final exile to Houston. Somewhat surprisingly, Miceli excelled with the Astros, posting a 2.10 ERA on a 20:7 K:BB in 20.2 IP and earning a 2004 major league contract as a reward. He should spend the season with his current team, but his obvious volatility makes him a poor fantasy pick.

43.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Steve Kline		5	3	3.82	1.35	31	30	56	63.2
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:S	4x4:	2		3		3		6
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	2		2		2		6

While I didn't expect Kline to return to St. Louis after bombing as Izzy's initial replacement at closer, he still pitched solidly in middle relief and possesses solid value as a lefty specialist. Of course, a career-worst 4.4 K/9 indicates diminishing dominance, and the decline in his overall skill level makes him a risky pick. Kline no longer resembles the solid set-up man likely to save several games each season of a few seasons ago. The Cardinals' off-season moves make him the worst veteran reliever to own on St. Louis, so keep Kline near the bottom of your draft list.

44.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Sullivan		6	0	3.66	1.25	56	32	48	64
CIN/CHW		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		3		-3
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	2		3		-2		1

His three weeks on the DL with shoulder tendinitis worry me, as does moving to Kauffman Stadium, but most of his skills appear quite solid and I expect him to remain a reasonably effective reliever. Unfortunately, his career-worst .57 G-F and a 4.5 BB/9 give Sullivan significant downside, and I just don't view him as a likely candidate for many save opportunities. Generally avoid Sullivan this year unless he at least maintains his 2003 skills and you need mid-season roster filler.

45.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Javier Lopez		4	1	3.70	1.20	40	12	58	58.1
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	2		3		-4
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	2		2		-4

Despite spending all season with Colorado, Lopez emerged as the best Rule 5 lefty since at least Scott Sauerbeck. Compiling a 6.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 2.25 G-F, 8.9 H/9, and .8 HR/9 as a Rockies' rookie reliever is one of the more impressive accomplishments of the year. While his dominance decreased in the second half, he kept his ERA no higher than 2.00 during all months except June and July. Of course, his 9.50 ERA during summer vastly limited his overall role, however in leagues with deep rosters and loose transaction rules, Lopez appears intriguing useful. I don't know when to advise using him considering he posted a 1.71 ERA in Coors and only flailed on the road due to poor defensive support, but his overall skill level at least makes him as safe a bet as roster filler any non-closing Colorado reliever in memory.

46.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Koplove		3	0	2.15	1.09	27	10	31	37.2
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		2		6		2
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	1		1		5		3

The emergence of Jose Valverde and Oscar Villarreal in Arizona almost makes Koplove an afterthought when looking for fantasy value in the Snakes' pen. However, despite shoulder tendinitis that ended his season in May and required arthroscopic surgery in September, his still demonstrated impressive overall skills at the beginning of the year. If he can echo these numbers following his off-season rehab, Koplove will rank among the safest pitchers to own in baseball, and his low profile should insure his availability as roster filler during the season in many leagues. Don't draft him unless he dominates in spring training, but as long as his skills look good after April, feel free to add him to your team at any point.

47.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Turk Wendell		3	1	3.38	1.28	27	28	54	64
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	2		2		-2
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	1		1		-2

Wendell accepted a minor league deal from the Rockies rather than take a guaranteed big league deal elsewhere because he preferred the Denver area. While this certainly should keep one of the most superstitious pitchers in history happy, fantasy owners simply cannot express interest in a Colorado reliever with a growing homer problem and questionable command.

48.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Steve Reed		5	0	3.27	1.34	39	26	59	63.1
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		2		0
2003 Age: 37	5x5:	1		2		0

After posting another solid set of stats in his return to Colorado, the most consistently effective pitcher in Rockies' history found himself out of work in November after Colorado paid a 300K buyout rather than exercise his $1.1M option for 2004. Instead of finding a contract that better acknowledged his success, he re-upped with the Rockies for a $600K, along with a $650K 2005 option and a $50 buyout. However, considering his extreme platoon split of allowing a .505 OPS against right-handers and a 1.093 OPS versus lefties, suggests Colorado paid a fair price for the righty specialist. A 1.55 G-F may limit Reed's downside, but I see no reason to own him in fantasy leagues as long as he pitches home games in Coors.

49.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Remlinger		6	0	3.65	1.35	83	39	54	69
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	2		2		2		6
2003 Age: 37	5x5:	2		3		2		8

Given his age and skill problems, Remlinger appears a high-risk pick in drafts this spring. A 5.1 walk rate is his worst mark since moving to relief, and an abrupt raise in his homer rate and cut in his groundball rate significantly increase his downside. Fortunately, Remlinger apparently adjusted to his new surrounding in the second half, compiling a 2.48 ERA on a 30:11 K:BB in 29 IP over 30 G with 22 H and 2 HR. While his yearlong numbers still concern me, feel free to select Remlinger during Dollar Days or use him as roster filler when necessary.

50.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Leo Estrella		7	3	4.36	1.45	25	21	75	66
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		2
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	1		1

We haven't seen Estrella demonstrate much command since he first left AA in 2000. While he occasionally manages decent walk rates, his overall numbers never appears impressive. In 2003, he compiled a 1.20 ERA on a 12:6 K:BB in 15 IP over 7 G at AAA Indianapolis(IL), earning an early call-up. He capitalized on the opportunity, establishing himself as the Brewers' primary right-handed set-up man thanks to his 2.9 BB/9 and 2.03 G-F. Of course, he effectively collapsed after the All-Star break, posting a 6.59 ERA on an 8:11 K:BB in 28.2 IP with 42 H and 5 HR. I believe he possesses the control necessary to rebound, particularly given the team's lack of right-handed alternatives, but Milwaukee isn't a team renowned for their patience with struggling pitchers. Even if you expect an unlikely strong rebound, don't draft Estrella since he looks unlikely to earn more than a few bucks of value under the best circumstances and almost certainly won't close if Danny Kolb unexpectedly falters.

51.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Stanton		2	5	4.57	1.24	34	19	37	45.1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	2		2		4		1
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	1		2		3

While he remains a respectable lefty specialist, a career-worst .73 G-F simply gives Stanton to much downside for most fantasy owners to consider owning him. A torn knee meniscus that forced him to the DL for a few weeks in the middle of the year also highlights his age, suggesting he could miss significant time at any point despite his relative durability over the past several seasons. With increasing command problems and likely low quantitative numbers, even the lower hit rate that should result from the Mets' defensive improvements won't give Stanton more than a couple bucks of value. Don't bother with him unless he looks like your best in-season option for roster filler.

52.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Gabe White		5	0	4.05	1.11	29	8	44	46.2
CIN/NYY		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	2		2		1		1
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	1		1		1		R

White accepted the Yankees' offer of arbitration, essentially insuring his return to New York even though he only appeared in a dozen games following his acquisition from Cincinnati. A groin strain limited both his numbers of outings and overall effectiveness, however considering White's terrible .56 G-F, I don't expect King George to keep White around long if he struggles as expected. If Torre limits his exposure to right-handers, White still could post surprising numbers, but drafting him this spring is a highly risky, questionable gamble.

53.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Linebrink		3	0	3.31	1.40	68	36	93	92.1
HOU/SD		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		2		-3
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	2		3		-4

After a lengthy run as an increasingly impressive AAAA pitcher, Linebrink finally received an extended opportunity in the majors. While he never pitched too well in parts of four seasons with the Astros, he registered a 2.82 ERA on a 51:22 K:BB in 60.2 IP over 43 G with 55 H and 5 HR for the Padres, solidifying his position in their bullpen. He needs to remain effective in 2004 to secure a relatively permanent relief spot in San Diego, but other than a .86 G-F, his statistical history and other skills suggest we can expect a similar performance. Drafting any Padre is a slight risk since we don't know how Petco Park will play, however Linebrink generally looks like a safe late-round pick in NL leagues.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Even though several pitchers listed above should open the year as set-up men, I don't envision any of them seeing many save opportunities this season, although Felix Rodriguez may prove the exception to that statement depending on the health of Robb Nen. Lopez, Miceli, Wendell, and Reed are the only ones I also can't recommend as late-round picks or roster filler given their home parks, but the other sixteen relievers all look like acceptable targets in the closing rounds of your draft.