Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with DV from $5 to $9

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

18.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Luis Ayala		10	5	2.92	1.10	46	13	65	71
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	9		15		-1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	8		13		-1

Considering the Expos let him go as a minor league free agent after 2002 instead of purchasing his contract and he hadn't pitched more than a few innings outside the Mexican League, Ayala looked like one of the worst Rule 5 picks in years when Montreal selected him. Instead, he emerged as one of the better rookie pitchers of the year and even closed towards the end of the season. Ayala weathered the games in Puerto Rico with little loss of effectiveness other than the expected rise in homers, and his consistent command and control makes him a quality middle reliever. The one glaring problem is inability to retire left-handers, however Montreal can afford a right-handed specialist, particularly given Ayala's overall skill. While I don't view him as a likely closer this year, he would succeed if given another opportunity, so although I recommend Ayala in general as a late-round pick, Biddle owners definitely should target him as insurance.

19.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chris Reitsma		9	12	4.29	1.32	53	19	92	84
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		14		-1		1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	7		12		0		3

One of the few bright spots in a dismal season, Reitsma emerged as a competent closer capable of maintaing most leads. Of course, the need to find someone willing to take Danny Graves' ridiculous contract requires that Graves return to closing until someone needs a closer, so Reitsma will join Ryan Wagner, John Riedling, and probably Brian Rieth in set-up work. Reistma compiled a 3.51 ERA on a 47:15 K:BB in 66.2 innings out of the bullpen while allowing 65 hits and 9 homers. Although those aren't great ratios, all are acceptable numbers, especially when accompanied by a career-best 1.79 G-F. The only downside to drafting him is that his difficulties with left-handers restrict his usefulness in the Reds' bullpen, and therefore he probably enters this year no better than third on the list for saves. However, since Reitsma's overall skill still makes him likely to earn a few bucks in qualitative stats alone, feel free to target Reitsma in the endgame.

20.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jose Valverde		2	10	2.15	.99	71	26	24	50.1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		14
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	8		13				R

Pitchers are not supposed to post a sub-1.00 WHIP with a 4.6 walk rate, nor are pitchers' walk rates supposed to exceed their hit rates. Valverde obviously needs to improve his control and .71 G-F to emerge as an elite reliever, but the combination of his 12.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 4.3 H/9 gives him as much upside as any rookie reliever in recent memory. He will succeed Matt Mantei as Arizona's official closer no later than the day Mantei's contract expires at the end of this year, and if they deal Mantei for a bat during the season, Valverde will emerge as one of baseball's most valuable closers over the balance of the season. While he won't reach the value of an Eric Gagne or Billy Wagner barring unexpected control development, Valverde ranks as one of the more intriguing pitchers to purchase this season, particularly in keeper leagues where his trade value should significantly exceed his purchase price.

21.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joe Nathan		12	0	2.96	1.06	83	33	51	79
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		13		-5
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	8		13		-4

After missing almost all of 2002 due to injury, Nathan reemerged as one of the most valuable non-closing relievers in baseball. He possesses a skill set perfectly suited for SBC Park, so his move to the Twins could affect his qualitative stats thanks to his .58 G-F. Nathan also looks more like a righty specialist than a closer, but given his overall dominance last year, including his 1.59 ERA on a 31:11 K:BB in 28.1 IP with 15 H and 0 HR in the second half, he likely belongs at the end of a bullpen. While another dozen wins appears extremely unlikely, he instead should reach 30 or more saves as the Twins' probable closer.

22.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike DeJean		5	19	4.68	1.51	71	39	86	82.2
MIL/STL		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		13		13		15
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	7		12		12		9

Signing with Baltimore could give him a chance to resume closing games if Jorge Julio struggles, however DeJean more likely will spend the season as a set-up man. Of course, if DeJean doesn't fix his rather brutal platoon split, his likelihood of success appears directly proportional to the bullpen management of new Orioles' skipper Lee Mazzilli. Given DeJean's continually unimpressive WHIP and a suddenly rising homer rate, he probably isn't a good gamble unless you want Julio insurance during Dollar Days.

23.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Julian Tavarez		3	11	3.66	1.22	39	27	75	83.2
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	8		13		-3
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	7		11		-3

Tavarez's professional rebirth as a right-handed specialist and then reasonably effective closer shocked me so much that we didn't target him in any leagues until late in the year. His poor strikeout rate illustrates his lack of dominance, however his 2.9 BB/9 and career-best 3.35 G-F are solid numbers, particularly for a reliever joining the Cardinals and their four Gold Glovers. Tavarez also is a good bet to factor in the mix for saves when Isringhausen inevitably hits the DL for a couple weeks, so while he isn't the traditional pitcher you want to target, he certainly shouldn't hurt you.

24.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Williams		1	28	6.14	1.70	39	41	66	63
PIT/PHI		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		13		18		22
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	6		11		15		18

After one of the more brutal seasons in memory for someone who began the year as a moderately respected closer, Williams only managed an invite to camp with the Rays. Don't expect any save opportunities as Danys Baez and Lance Carter both rank significantly ahead of Williams at the end of Tampa's pen. Despite his age and struggles in 2003, I don't consider Williams completely unownable thanks to his new team's improving defense, but don't even employ him as roster filler until you see a skill rebound.

25.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Paul Quantrill		2	1	1.75	.98	44	15	61	77.1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	7		12		2		1
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	6		11		2		6

Moving from the Dodgers to the Yankees gives Quantrill almost no chance to repeat his excellent 2003 stats. His ground-fly ratio dropped from 2.25 to 1.86 G-F, suggesting a pending rise in his homer rate, and his 7.1 hit rate easily ranks as a career-best mark he likely can't repeat without superb defensive support, an unlikely prospect in New York. Also, since even a strong echo of his 1.7 walk rate would surprise me, I expect a significant drop in Quantrill's qualitative roto contribution. Viewing him as more than decent roster filler with a shot at vulturing several wins is a mistake, suggesting you shouldn't consider him prior to the endgame of your draft.

26.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Oscar Villarreal		10	0	2.57	1.29	80	46	80	98
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	7		12		-3
2003 Age: 21	5x5:	7		11		-4

Arizona enters this season knowing they possess two of the best young relievers in the game. If Villarreal avoids burnout despite more than quadrupling his number of career relief appearances, he possesses nearly as much upside than Valverde, and he also could resume starting if necessary. Fortunately, the Diamondbacks' pitching prospect depth should enable him to stay in the bullpen, and considering his 2.34 ERA on a 36:15 K:BB in 42.1 IP over 37 G with 30 H and 3 HR in the second half, Villarreal looks like a good gamble in 2004. Even though he shouldn't reach double-digit wins again any time soon, he merits a few bucks in any NL-only draft.

27.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jose Mesa		5	24	6.52	1.76	45	31	71	58
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	7		11		23		22
2003 Age: 37	5x5:	6		9		20		17

I doubt many Mesa owners realize that he only blew 4 of his 28 save opportunities, but a terrible WHIP resulted in so many baserunners that Larry Bowa began looking elsewhere for saves. However, even though right-handed batters abused him to the tune of a .932 OPS, he remained effective against lefties while posting his best ground-fly ratio in years. He possesses enough overall skill to regain a closer job this year, and Pittsburgh presents him with the perfect opportunity. Expect a couple dozen saves from Mesa if he wins the job in spring training as we expect. Of course, he won't contribute anything qualitatively and could even hurt your team, yet as long as you roster him at less than $15, I see no problem in paying a buck for every two games he should save.

28.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Cal Eldred		7	8	3.74	1.38	67	31	62	67.1
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		9		-3
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	5		9		-3		1

Given their respective salaries, Eldred effectively ranks behind both Julian Tavarez and Mike Lincoln as likely alternatives to Jason Isringhausen for St. Louis saves. Since Eldred's career also could end on any pitch given his fragile arm and age, expecting more than a small fantasy contribution is unwise. His 4.1 walk rate and .92 G-F depict a pitcher with somewhat worrisome downside, so while gambling a couple bucks on Eldred is a respectable move, he isn't someone we plan to target this year.

29.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Felix Heredia		5	1	2.69	1.23	45	33	74	87
CIN/NYY		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	5		9		-3
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	5		7		-3

The Yankees' decision to dump Chris Hammond to create roster space to re-sign Gabe White and Heredia seems highly questionable, particularly considering the availability of several more effective lefties on the market this winter. I still view him as an intriguing reliever despite his unimpressive Cubs' career and Ron Santo's frequent castigation of Heredia, but his rapidly decreasing dominance isn't a good sign. While a career-best 3.4 walk rate and 1.56 G-F at least helps explain why New York wanted him back, his overall mediocre skills leave him as no better than roster filler.

30.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt Herges		3	3	2.62	1.23	68	29	68	79
SD/SF		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	5		8
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	5		8

Herges returns to San Francisco as one of the Giants' primary set-up men after setting a couple of career-best marks of a 7.8 K/9 and 7.7 H/9. A falling ground-fly ratio indicates increasing downside, but with his walk rate seemingly under control, he should enjoy a productive year or two with San Francisco. Posting a 2.31 ERA on a 28:9 K:BB in 35 IP with 28 H and 1 HR after the Giants acquired him from the Padres also likely endeared him to management, so expect Herges to fill Joe Nathan's role, potentially approaching a double-digit win total with a little luck. Spending a few bucks on Herges, particularly in 5x5 leagues where you need wins, should give your team a nice boost.

31.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Justin Speier		3	9	4.05	1.31	66	23	73	73.1
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		8		1
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	5		8		1

Swiped from Colorado for Mark Hendrickson and a prospect, Speier probably holds a slight edge on Terry Adams, Aquilino Lopez, and Kerry Ligtenberg for Toronto's closer's job. The big problem for Speier is his .68 G-F, but his overall dominance and excellent control give him more value at the end of the Jays' pen then as a middle reliever. Certainly don't approach $20 if he earns the role before your draft, but bids in the $10-15 range make sense given his skill level and the likelihood of him making a significant quantitative roto contribution while pitching for Toronto.

32.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Fuentes		3	4	2.75	1.30	82	34	64	75.1
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	5		7		-2
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	5		8		-2

Ignore Fuentes' success against both lefties and right-handers, his dominant strikeout totals, and his solid across-the-board skills. Colorado's decision to convert Shawn Chacon into a closer eliminates any chance of Fuentes earning more than a couple bucks of roto value, and without a chance at saves, I see no reason to own any Rockies' reliever in standard fantasy leagues.

33.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jim Brower		8	2	3.96	1.29	65	39	90	100
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		7		0
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	4		7		0

None of his skill ratios appear overly impressive, but Brower is a mostly acceptable middle reliever capable of spending a couple weeks in the rotation if needed. His second-half performance of a 3.30 ERA on a 30:13 K:BB in 43.2 IP with 35 H and 3 H in 3 GS(20G) earned him a two-year deal from San Francisco, and considering his 2.12 G-F is the results of four straight seasonal increases, he appears relatively safe to own. I don't see much upside in his numbers given his probable role and unimpressive dominance, but Brower won't hurt you during Dollar Days in deep leagues or as roster filler whenever the Giants play at home.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Of the third tier closers and quality middle relievers, Jose Valverde stands alone as the only pitcher here likely to reach double-digit value. Considering he should assume Arizona's closer role no later than next season, he looks like a superb target in keeper leagues.

Nathan, Mesa, and Speier all could open the year as closers, and Ayala, DeJean, Tavarez, and Mike Williams should be set-up men, but Valverde is the most likely candidate to earn both 2004 and long-term profit given what each pitcher should cost on draft day.