Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with Double-digit Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Eric Gagne		2	55	1.20	.69	137	20	37	82.1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	38		67		29		32
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	35		60		26		25

Perhaps the best way to quantify Gagne's fantasy value is to mention that if he hadn't saved a single game in 2003, he still would have earned $11 in 4x4 leagues and $12 under 5x5 rules. Only eight NL pitchers exceeded his $10 quantitative contribution, and only 31 NL starters, an average of less than two pitchers on each team, struck out as many batters. While we didn't agree with him winning the Cy Young, he still posted a career year by most any measure, as well as one of the most successful relief seasons in history, particularly considering he didn't blow a single save. The odds of him strongly echoing these numbers are quite low despite his career-best 1.75 G-F matching perfectly with the Dodgers' great infield, but we also never expected him to repeat his stunning 2002 season. If you want an elite closer, Gagne stands by himself as the majors' best roto reliever. I see no reason to bid less than $30, however exercise some caution above that level since if he didn't even reach $40 in 2003, spending that much is a risk. Of course, if you believe in his upside, his value under a 50/50 split again could exceed $60, however he almost certainly will not be a bargain in your draft after the amount of publicity he received in 2003.

2.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Billy Wagner		1	44	1.78	.87	105	23	52	86
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	30		53		26		27
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	27		47		23		25

While Wagner lacks the extreme dominance he demonstrated before his arm problems four years ago, he compiled the best overall numbers of his career. Moving to Philadelphia should allow him to repeat this performance to a great extent given their solid defense and loaded starting rotation, and if Citizens' Bank Park plays fairly neutral like most other new stadiums, we even could see a drop in his qualitative numbers. I see no statistical sign of anything but continued dominance for Wagner, making him an excellent choice as your top closer in the neighborhood of $30.

3.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Smoltz		0	45	1.12	.87	73	8	48	64.1
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	28		50		28		33
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	25		43		25		25

Post-season surgery to remove scar tissue from his elbow could reinvigorate Smoltz, but with golfing buddies Maddux and Glavine now both gone from Atlanta, I don't know how much longer he'll continue pitching given he turns 37 in May. His skills rank with those of any closer in the game, and the likely downturn in the Braves' offense could enable him to approach or even exceed Eric Gagne's save total. However, I still wouldn't bid as much for Smoltz as for Gagne or Wagner due to his health problems and the exodus of talent from Atlanta. While you can approach $30 in bidding on Smoltz, recognize that drafting him is a risk and you almost certainly won't be rostering a likely keeper for 2005.

4.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tim Worrell		4	38	2.87	1.30	65	28	74	78.1
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	22		38		6		1
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	19		33		5

Given his age and historical role, Worrell's decision to join Philadelphia as Wagner's set-up man likely limits him to single-digit roto value for the rest of his career. Of course, he easily could wind up closing next year if the Phillies don't exercise Wagner's rather expensive option, and barring a sudden skill breakdown, he should remain an effective pitcher. However, Worrell's consistently elevated walk rates make him a questionable pick in most leagues, particularly considering that leaving PacBell will force a rise in his qualitative marks. Only Wagner owners should feel comfortable spending more than a few bucks on Worrell this spring.

5.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joe Borowski		2	33	2.63	1.05	66	19	53	68.1
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	20		35		4		1
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	18		31		3		R

Ignore the media hype regarding the possibility of LaTroy Hawkins seizing Borowski's job. Given Borowski's effectiveness last year, the Cubs have no reason to switch roles, especially considering Borowski's new two-year deal. Given his skill and Chicago's improved roster, Borowski not only should remain the closer throughout 2004, but he could approach 40 saves and $30 of fantasy value. With Gagne likely overpriced, Wagner joining an excellent offensive team, and Smoltz a health risk, Borowski may be the safest choice among NL closers.

6.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt Mantei		5	29	2.62	1.00	68	18	37	55
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	19		32		11		16
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	16		28		10		15

Mantei ranks among the riskiest pitchers to own in all of baseball given his injury history and the Diamondbacks' desire to move his salary, thereby opening the closer's role for Jose Valverde. Even if the team remains in contention, Mantei still might end the year with a different organization, and there's no guarantee he'll continue closing with his new team. As he posted a career-best walk rate along side other solid skill ratios, he still possesses the talent to finish among the league's best relievers in any given season, but spending more than $20 for him looks like a mistake unless you also grab Jose Valverde around $5. Owning Mantei and Valverde at least protects you against health problems or a trade, so target them both if you want to roster either reliever.

7.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Byung-Hyun Kim		9	16	3.31	1.12	102	33	104	122.1
ARI/BOS		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	17		29		11		16
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	15		26		11		14

Looking strictly as Kim's performance as a starter last year, we see he posted a 3.38 ERA on a 48:23 K:BB in 72 IP over 12 GS with 63 H, 9 HR, and a 1.56 G-F. A 6.0 K/9 certainly doesn't indicate much dominance, but his other skill ratios, particularly a solid 2.9 BB/9, certainly suggest Kim can succeed as a starter for Boston. Given Boston's newly loaded bullpen, he also won't need to worry about many high-pressure situations. While he can't return to closing if he struggles, I see no reason to believe Kim won't excel in their rotation. If you plan to approach $20 in your bidding, you might nab one of the AL's top dozen starters at a nice discount.

8.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Braden Looper		6	28	3.68	1.38	56	29	82	80.2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	16		27		19		14
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	13		23		16		11

Moving Looper to a set-up role late in the year obviously worked out well for Florida, however despite his lack of dominance, his other skills suggests he should succeed as the Mets' new closer. A 3.2 walk rate isn't terrible, particularly when accompanied by a .5 homer rate and excellent 2.30 G-F, a developing skill that works well with the Mets' significantly improved infield defense. I firmly believe his second-half breakdown, which consisted mostly of a hit and homer rate increase, was largely due to looking over his shoulder at Ugueth Urbina. Since the Mets lack any experienced closing alternatives aside from the ancient John Franco, Looper looks comfortable and ready to embark on a couple of 30-save seasons. See if his down-the-stretch difficulties will let you nab him around $15, although spending another $5-10 on him is a perfectly reasonable idea.

9.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rocky Biddle		5	34	4.65	1.55	54	40	71	71.2
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	15		26		-2
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	13		22		-3		R

Biddle's terrible control helps illustrate the pointlessness of considering almost anything except a manager's whims when determining who might find unexpected save opportunities. He struggled for much of the year, even compiling an awful 5.54 on a 15:13 K:BB in 13 IP at Hiram Bithorn Stadium, and only maintaining a barely acceptable walk rate in other stadiums enabled Biddle to hold his final ERA below 5.00. Of course, a 6.8 K/9, 8.9 H/9, and 1.66 G-F all depict a pitcher with sufficient skill to continue closing, particularly since he possesses more value to the Expos in that role than as a middle reliever. Montreal's decision to tender him a contract virtually insures Biddle will receive the majority of Expos' save opportunities at the beginning of the year, however his bad command could lead to a change. Despite his 34 saves last season, exercise increasing caution as the bidding approaches $15, and attempt to roster more skilled closers likely to keep their roles indefinitely before settling for Biddle.

10.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Armando Benitez		4	21	2.96	1.37	75	41	59	73
NYM/NYY/SEA		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	12		21		24		27
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	11		19		21		23

One of the more unfairly maligned players in recent history, Benitez rated as one of the most dominant pitchers in the game throughout the first half of his career. He still registers among the game's elite stoppers as his skills remain quite solid while his ERA didn't rise over 2.70 between April and September. Since he doesn't need to worry about a trade this year, I expect Benitez to return to his 2002 form, compiling over 30 saves with solid qualitative marks. Spending over $20 on him is a good gamble given his relative health, skill level, and the Marlins' lack of acceptable alternatives after dumping Looper.

11.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rod Beck		3	20	1.78	1.02	32	11	25	35.1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	12		20		0		R
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	10		17		0

His decision to return to San Diego to set-up Trevor Hoffman effectively guts his roto value since Hoffman appears fully recovered from his injury problems. Of course, Beck's qualitative value keeps him somewhat useful even without a likely shot at more than an occasional save, although he likely lacks the endurance to pitch more than about 60 innings. Anyone desiring to draft Hoffman should attempt to grab Beck as relatively inexpensive insurance as long as the bidding doesn't head into the high single digits.

12.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Guillermo Mota		6	1	1.97	.99	99	26	78	105
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	12		20		4
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	11		19		3

Pitching in the middle of a dynamic bullpen that included solid middle relievers and Eric Gagne obviously suited Mota nicely. He managed career-best skill ratios almost across-the-board, and while he slightly slumped in the second half, I see no reason he won't remain among the majors' best set-up men. With Octavio Dotel shifting to closer, Mota now ranks as the safest bet among NL middle relievers, so feel free to approach the high single digits in bidding even if you don't expect him to save any games.

13.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Isringhausen		0	22	2.36	1.17	41	18	31	42
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	12		19		20		23
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	10		16		8		19

As usual, I harbor few questions about Isringhausen's normally very solid skill ratios, but injury questions plague him once again this spring. Shoulder surgery cost him much of the first half of 2003, and while he appears healthy, anyone with his track record on the disabled list requires careful monitoring. A decreasing strikeout rate and rising walk rate also could lead to problems, so don't rank Izzy among the top NL closers. While he still merits a bid close to $20, smart owners also would grab Julian Tavarez at the end of the draft, who appears the most likely candidate to inherit any extra save opportunities in St. Louis.

14.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Danny Kolb		1	21	1.96	1.28	39	19	34	41.1
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	11		19		-1
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	9		16		-2

A fantastic performance at AAA Indianapolis(IL), which included a 1.37 ERA on a 46:13 K:BB in 39.1 IP over 26 G with 26 H and 1 HR, resulted in a mid-season promotion for Kolb. Within weeks of his callup, he grabbed the closer's job in Milwaukee and proceeded to convert 21 of 23 save opportunities, finally fulfilling the promise he so rarely displayed for the Rangers. An 8.5 K/9 and 3.33 G-F not only give Kolb significant upside, but they enable us to overlook his 4.1 walk rate to focus on his impressive dominance. He held all batters below a .630 OPS and posted his best numbers towards the end of the year. The Brewers may need to improve several spots on their pitching staff, however Kolb appears able to close for them indefinitely. Even with a potentially problematic WHIP and the team's uncertain win total, you can safely push at least $20 for him.

15.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rheal Cormier		8	1	1.70	.93	67	25	54	84.2
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	11		19		-1
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	10		17		-1

The best non-closing relievers in the majors last year, Cormier displayed a nearly unbelievable level of skill while anchoring the terribly unstable Philadelphia bullpen. Holding left-handers to a meager .119/.229/.155 performance is an impressive accomplishment, however he also didn't allow right-handed to break a .570 OPS. Unfortunately considering he decreased his homer rate despite a sharp G-F drop and his ERA fell nearly two full points below his previous career-low, Cormier likely will return near his previous level of performance this season. New Phillies Billy Wagner and Tim Worrell at least will allow Cormier to resume his normal set-up role, but we can't expect the team defense to help him post another 5.7 hit rate. While Cormier is a good choice as roster filler, I don't expect him to earn more than a few dollars in 2004.

16.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Williamson		5	21	4.16	1.40	74	34	54	62.2
CIN/BOS		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		18		21		19
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	10		16		19		19

Boston wisely kept Williamson to give Keith Foulke one of the game's best set-up men, though his new role certainly will limit his roto upside. Of course, other than a fluke ERA, Williamson posted some of the best skills of his career after joining the Red Sox. If Boston's defense improves this year in the latter innings of games thanks to a fleeter bench, he could return to the sub-3.00 ERAs we expect from a potentially dominant reliever. While I see no need to spend more than a few bucks here given Foulke's stability in the closer's role, Williamson will contribute a few bucks of qualitative stats, and depending on how Terry Francona uses him, he also should vulture several wins. He looks like a good endgame target considering the trade rumors that hounded him this winter following his well-publicized playoff difficulties.

17.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Octavio Dotel		6	4	2.48	.97	97	31	53	87
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		17		10		10
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	10		17		10		9

After a few years of largely unheralded relief work, Dotel finally gets the chance to close full-time following the trade of Billy Wagner. Replacing Dotel with Brad Lidge in the primary set-up role weakens the team, but given Houston's newly loaded rotation, I understand why they want their most dominant remaining reliever finishing wins on a regular basis. The only concerns I have are that Dotel remains a consistent flyball pitcher and his walk rate started creeping upward last year, however I see no logical reason he won't succeed brilliantly as the closer. Expect a potential All-Star season from Dotel as he finally establishes himself in the most glamorous bullpen role, possibly even earning a slight profit on bids in the neighborhood of $25.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: We can break down National League closers fairly easily into three groups: elite, competent, and fairly questionable. With Gagne, Wagner, Smoltz, Borowski, and Dotel all looking very strong and Mantei, Looper, Benitez, Kolb, Isringhausen, and Hoffman each a respectable pick, you should be able to roster at least one solid performer. Biddle, Graves, Chacon, Nen, and Mesa all could post 30-save seasons, but either skill or injury questions haunt each of them. Unless you're desperate for saves, only roster one of these last few likely closers as a second option after first drafting one of more established eleven relievers.

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