Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Relief Pitchers below $-3

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

164.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Reynaldo Garcia		0	0	9.00	1.83	15	14	19	18
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-7		-1
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-3		-7		-2

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Texas for my comments on Garcia.

165.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Sean Douglass		0	0	13.50	2.50	3	6	14	8
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-7		-2
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-4		-8		-3

I realize Douglass isn't likely to develop into a dominant pitcher at any point, but losing him Minnesota on waivers just to claim a questionable prospect like Walter Young was a bad move by the Orioles. While Douglass struggled in a couple of mop-up appearances, his 10-8 record and 3.40 ERA on a 118:54 K:BB in 143 IP with 142 H and 6 HR over 27 starts at AAA Ottawa(IL) demonstrates solid long-term upside. Of course, Minnesota needs rotation filler even more than Baltimore right now, but giving Douglass great defensive support might not help his overall numbers. He needs to maintain decent control as he increase his 1.12 career G-F before I can recommend him for fantasy teams, so though he could emerge as a quality pitcher very quickly, don't target him in spring drafts.

166.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Mullen		0	0	13.50	3.14	4	10	13	7.1
KC/LA		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-4		-8		0
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-4		-8		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Los Angeles for my comments on Mullen.

167.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Hector Almonte		1	0	7.12	1.83	32	24	43	36.2
BOS/MON		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-8		-1
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-7		-2

After spending 2002 in Japan, Almonte returned to North America to contribute to Boston's early bullpen troubles before helping to curtail the Expos' playoff hopes. He pitched very solidly at AAA Pawtucket(IL) in the spring, compiling 9 Saves and a 1.73 ERA on a 28:6 K:BB in 26 IP over 21 G with 16 H and 2 HR. Unfortunately, his control deserted him upon reaching the majors, and even a somewhat dominant right-handed specialist needs a lower walk rate than a 5.9 BB/9. Signing with Pittsburgh gives him a shot to break camp in the majors, but I suspect the Pirates' depth of veteran right-handers will keep Almonte in Nashville most of the year.

168.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rosman Garcia		1	0	6.02	1.86	25	23	63	46.1
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-8
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-4		-7

While he barely pitched adequately at AA Tulsa in 2002, Garcia impressed the organization during camp, and until securing a full-time roster spot, he compiled 10 Saves and a 1.91 ERA on a 21:6 K:BB in 28.1 IP over 17 G with 20 H and 1 HR at AAA Oklahoma(PCL). His bad ERA in the majors appears primarily due to an atrocious 12.2 hit rate, so if the Rangers give him better defensive support, his 1.65 G-F will help improve his qualitative contribution. The main problem Garcia faces is that he enters camp as no better than the 12th pitcher on the staff, competing against long relievers, third lefties, and Rule 5 pick Chris Mabeus. Texas' bullpen seems largely set with Cordero, Powell, Nelson, probably Zimmerman, and at least two left-handers from Shouse, Mahay, and Erasmo Ramirez, so Garcia won't see any save opportunities even if he remains in the majors. I see no reason to target him in any league this spring.

169.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt J. White		0	0	22.24	3.18	0	5	13	5.2
BOS/SEA		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-4		-8		0
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-4		-8		-2

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Cleveland for my comments on White.

170.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ramiro Mendoza		3	0	6.75	1.77	36	20	98	66.2
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-10		8		8
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-4		-8		7		6

More than any other Boston pitcher, Mendoza's disastrous year led to several mid-season trades for more pitching and even Grady Little's reluctance to pull Pedro in the playoffs. Instead of solidifying their relief corps, Mendoza did more damage to the Red Sox once joining their team than he ever did as a Yankee. Right knee tendinitis contributed to some of his problems, but mechanics broke down early in the year, his skills slipped to one of the worst overall levels of his career, and the Red Sox even attempted to correct his relief difficulties by inserting him in the rotation for five starts. The only good news here is that he didn't fall apart in a couple of September appearances. Now Mendoza enters spring training as one of several pitchers competing for no more than two Boston bullpen spots since Foulke, Williamson, Embree, Timlin, and Bronson Arroyo almost certainly will break camp in the majors. Mendoza deserves another shot, but until he demonstrates better skills during the season, don't consider him for your team.

171.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brad Voyles		0	0	7.47	2.07	24	18	47	31.1
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-10		-2
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-4		-9		-3

Although he stands a better chance to win a job in the Royals' pen this year than most Kansas City youngsters, Voyles inability to maintain his minor league success in the majors likely will keep him off the roster when the season starts. He compiled a solid 2.99 ERA on an 89:24 K:BB in 81.1 IP with 68 H and 5 HR in 29 appearances at AAA Omaha(PCL), including nine starts, however his control keeps failing him whenever the Royals promote him. Considering that at least five right-handers enter camp ahead of Voyles on the bullpen depth chart and he showed little skill improvement in 2003, he shouldn't contribute to either Kansas City or fantasy teams before mid-season at the earliest.

172.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mickey Callaway		1	0	6.68	1.78	41	24	84	60.2
ANA/TEX		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-10		2		1
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-4		-8		2		5

Instead of building on six solid September starts at the end of 2002, Callaway never enjoyed any success against left-handers and even shifting to the bullpen didn't reduce his poor hit rate. Compiling a 2.35 ERA on a 19:11 K:BB in 38.1 IP over 8 GS(11G) with 38 H and 1 HR between AAA Salt Lake(PCL) and AAA Oklahoma(PCL) at least demonstrated that Callaway can succeed with good defensive support. Unfortunately, remaining with the Rangers this year, particularly if he wins a starting job, likely won't lead to success. I still believe his solid control and groundball rate will lead to a few years of consistent success, but drafting any Texas starter is a high-risk gamble right now.

173.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Albie Lopez		4	0	12.71	2.56	15	17	41	22.2
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-11		2
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	-6		-11		2

A pulled groin muscle contributed to his struggles, and then elbow problems kept him from signing elsewhere after the Royals released him in mid-June. I expect him to receive several more shots since 2003 was Lopez's first bad season since 1997, however the complete breakdown of his all skills last year makes him a poor choice in any fantasy league.

174.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jay Powell		3	0	7.82	1.86	40	34	75	58.2
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-12		-1
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-5		-10		-2

The last ridiculously overpaid Rangers' reliever missed most of the first couple months of the year with a partially torn tendon sheath in his right middle finger. Upon his June return, Powell then displayed little apparent skill until the last weeks of the season. He neither owns much dominance or control right now, so even a decent groundball rate doesn't limit his downside. Even a decent spring likely will keep Powell in Texas' bullpen for another couple months, but he won't see save opportunities and isn't a good candidate to succeed elsewhere. Do not roster Powell on any roto team.

175.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Nick Bierbrodt		0	0	9.14	2.10	29	27	64	43.1
TB/CLE		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-8		-15		-6
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-7		-13		-4		1

The worst American League fantasy reliever in 2003, Bierbrodt appears a long way even from helping big leagues teams, particularly after signing with the Red Sox this winter. He demonstrated little skill at any of his three stops as his 3.00 ERA at AAA Buffalo(IL) seemed low given his 31:18 K:BB in 27 IP with 22 H and 1 HR in 16 appearances. Bierbrodt's previous success, skills, and his relatively young age still suggest he could enjoy an extended big league career even with a couple bullets still in his liver from a 2002 shooting, but his difficulties last year give us no reason to draft him on any fantasy team.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Trolling for bargains among the worst fantasy performers of the previous year is a good way to snag pitchers who enjoy rebound years, but the lowest levels of 2003 AL pitchers offer little immediate upside. Only Ramiro Mendoza and Sean Douglass even merit consideration for reserve picks, yet even Mendoza isn't a good gamble right now, and Douglass doesn't belong on fantasy rosters unless he surprises to win a starting job on Minnesota. Avoid most of the pitchers listed above until further notice.