Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Relief Pitchers with $-3 DV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

153.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Les Walrond		0	0	10.13	2.25	6	7	11	8
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-6
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		-6

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Kansas City for my comments on Walrond.

154.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Adam Johnson		0	0	47.25	6.75	0	1	8	1.1
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		-3
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		-7		-4

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Minnesota for my comments on Johnson.

155.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Esteban Yan		2	1	6.35	1.61	53	23	84	66.2
TEX/STL		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		1		R
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-2		-5		1

After at least pitching well against right-handers in recent seasons, Yan allowed a .307/367/542 line last year, even worse than the .309/.373/.489 that lefties managed against him. Bad defensive support remains at the root of his lofty ERA total, but as his homer rate also jumped to 1.8 HR/9 and most of his splits shrunk towards the worse split, hopefully Yan just experienced a career-worst bout of hittability. While I still see him returning to roto relevance some day in a short relief role, he isn't even guaranteed to break camp in the Tigers' pen, so you shouldn't draft him this spring even if you believe he soon might rebound from his 2003 disaster.

156.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Wil Ledezma		3	0	5.79	1.60	49	35	99	84
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-6		0
2003 Age: 22	5x5:	-2		-5		-1

Considering Ledezma accumulated more innings in 2003 than in the three previous seasons and he jumped past three development labels when Detroit kept him as a Rule 5 pick, I'm rather impressed with his development. All his skill ratios ended the year at bad levels, however he largely excelled in the first half, compiling a 3.12 ERA on a 33:16 K:BB in 52 IP over 22 G with 46 H and 4 HR. The Tigers' decision to shift him to the rotation after the break destroyed his overall numbers as he compiled a 10.13 ERA on a 16:19 K:BB in 32 IP with 53 H and 8 HR while starting half his games. With Jamie Walker, Eric Eckenstahler, and new Rule 5 pick Mike Bumatay set to open the year as Detroit's lefties, Ledezma should head back to AA to dominate the minors for a year or two before reemerging, however his 2003 performance suggests a bright future, albeit not one with much 2004 roto upside.

157.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
C.J. Nitkowski		0	0	7.45	2.59	5	8	17	9.2
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-6		-2
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	-3		-7		-3

Nitkowski's place as the leading contender for the second lefty spot in the bullpen says far more about the diminished competitiveness of the Braves than any development from Nitkowski. At AAA Oklahoma(PCL), he compiled a 4.09 ERA on a 53:31 K:BB in 81.1 IP over 33 G with 88 H and 6 HR, suggesting he barely belongs at the highest level of the minors. Perhaps the Braves can turn around yet another lefty, but even a relatively successful lefty with consistent reversed platoon splits offers little help to roto teams.

158.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chris Bootcheck		0	0	9.58	2.13	7	6	16	10.1
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		-2
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-7		-3

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Anaheim for my comments on Bootcheck.

159.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Giovanni Carrara		2	0	6.83	1.86	13	14	40	29
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6				R
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	-3		-6

After effectively sabotaging early momentum for the Mariners, Carrara at least rebounded at AAA Tacoma(PCL), posting 5 Saves and a 4.23 ERA on a 27:9 K:BB in 27.2 IP with 28 H and 2 HR. He still owns sufficient skills to warrant a look in spring training, but his decision to sign with Cleveland, a team loaded with young pitchers who need big league experience in any role, likely will keep him in the minors most of the year. I hope he likes Buffalo.

160.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dan Reichert		0	0	6.06	2.20	13	8	28	16.1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-6

Although Reichert managed a relatively decent 3.57 ERA on a 60:35 K:BB in 58 IP over 41 G with 55 H and 2 HR at AAA Syracuse(IL), he needs to improve his control before receiving another shot in the majors. I don't envision him starting again considering his 2.50 career G-F and developing dominance could lead to an impressive career in the bullpen, however he belongs in the minors until his walk rate drops, thereby maximizing the upside of his other skills.

161.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Wood		2	0	10.54	2.27	15	7	24	13.2
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-7
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		-7

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Oakland for my comments on Wood.

162.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Sean Lowe		1	0	6.25	1.70	28	21	55	44.2
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-7		-2
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	-3		-6		-3

Lowe's failure to pitch effectively forced the Royals to look outside the organization for veteran relief help, a move that resulted in dealing a good deal of farm system depth. At least he sandwiched decent minor league numbers around his three months in the majors, compiling a 3.25 ERA on a 27:19 K:BB in 52.2 IP over 7 GS(14G) with 54 H and 3 HR at AAA Omaha(PCL). Unfortunately, despite decent control, Lowe's lack of dominance makes him no better than roster filler for big league teams, and I see no reason for fantasy owner to roster him.

163.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeff Tam		0	1	5.64	1.86	26	25	58	44.2
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-7		1
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	-3		-6		0

I don't know why Toronto keeps giving perfectly mediocre relievers significant major league deals, but even considering Tam's solid control and consistently groundball rate, giving more than an NRI is a mistake. His weak dominance gives him little overall upside, so placing him in front of a questionable defense logically will result in an abundance of hits. Fortunately for fantasy owners, Tam's move to Colorado completely eliminates any lingering roto value, and barring an unexpected rebound, he also doesn't appear likely to reemerge as anything more than occasionally acceptable roster filler.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more American League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Only Adam Johnson, Chris Bootcheck, and Mike Wood own decent long-term fantasy upside among today's pitchers, and even these three prospects don't appear likely to see much time in the majors this season or contribute to successful roto teams.