Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Starting Pitchers with DV below $5

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

114.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ruben Quevedo		1	0	6.75	1.78	19	23	53	42.2
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-11		-3		R
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-5		-10		-3		R

Currently left without a team despite only turning 25 this month, Quevedo ranks as the prototypical AAA pitcher. Since the Braves jumped him to AAA Richmond in 1999, he owns a 27-14 record and a 3.83 ERA on a 401:143 K:BB in 394.2 IP with 374 H and 8 HR. Unfortunately, his 14-30 record and a 6.15 ERA in 326.1 innings in the majors, not to mention a 237:175 K:BB, 364 H and 70 HR, suggest he doesn't deserve another chance at starting any time soon. Quevedo apparently can't limit the number of homers or walks he allows, but his stamina and AAA effectiveness keep him in rotations. While he owns sufficient base skills to emerge as the next Esteban Loaiza someday, I doubt Quevedo will make a positive contribution to any roto team in the near future. Avoid him until his control improves.

115.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Alan Benes		0	1	8.10	2.19	20	14	37	23.1
CHC/TEX		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-11		-3
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-5		-10		-3

Consistent command difficulties leave Benes with little hope of emerging as a big league regular. Multiple injuries over the past several years mean that he no longer possesses the same level of skill that enabled him to start effectively for St. Louis in 1996 and 1997. An 81:44 K:BB in 11 IP with 129 H and 13 HR at AAA Iowa(PCL) this year indicates he still merits a AAA roster spot, and his decision to return to the Cardinals this winter gives Benes his best chance at regaining his former glory. Unfortunately, his relatively poor performance in the majors since 1997 leaves him little hope of immediate success, so you shouldn't consider him for your team until he again demonstrates solid skills for St. Louis.

116.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Oliver Perez		4	0	5.47	1.63	141	77	129	126.2
SD/PIT		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-6		-11		4		8
2003 Age: 22	5x5:	-3		-6		6		4

The primary return in the Brian Giles deal, Perez will face the fury of Bucs' fans if he continues struggling as a Pirate unless Jason Bay develops quickly. Of course, Perez also posted a 3.02 ERA on a 48:12 K:BB in 47.2 IP in 8 GS with 44 H and 6 HR for AAA Portland(PCL) last year, strongly indicating he requires no more seasoning at age 22. Perez's upside depends on his ability to reduce his walks and homers. His dominance makes him an excellent candidate to move to relief, however those strikeout totals similarly give him nearly unlimited potential as a starter. I believe Pittsburgh realizes that Perez's great second half in 2002 wasn't a fluke, although with a wave of pitching prospects approaching the majors, Perez needs to impress management soon to secure his future with the franchise. Enough questions exist regarding Perez's immediate effectiveness to require caution on the part of any owner considering Perez in spring drafts, so he probably isn't worth more than a Dollar Days' gamble for most teams, but also remember that like many young lefty starters, he could jump from $5 to $20 at almost any time once he harnesses his control.

117.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeremy Griffiths		1	0	7.02	1.85	25	19	57	41
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-12
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-6		-11

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: New York(N) for my comments on Griffiths.

118.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Luis Martinez		0	0	9.92	2.45	10	15	25	16.1
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-6		-12
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	-6		-12

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Milwaukee for my comments on Martinez.

119.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Clay Condrey		1	0	8.47	1.88	25	21	43	34
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-7		-13		2		R
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-6		-11		2

San Diego's suddenly deep pitching staff creates an obvious problem with Condrey's desire to return to the majors this year. After emerging as a useful reliever and potentially solid starter late in 2002, his command problems last season, accompanied by a groin strain and then the strained oblique that sent him to the DL in May, appear to leave Condrey as no more than a fallback option for the Padres. Yet he compiled a 46:12 K:BB in 63 IP over 11 GS with 64 H and 7 HR at AAA Portland(PCL), and his strong ground-fly ratios limit his downside. Don't target Condrey since he appears no better than the Padres' 8th or 9th best bullpen option, but if he earns a recall, he could be helpful roster filler in deeper leagues.

120.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jimmy Anderson		1	0	8.84	1.91	13	14	60	38.2
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-8		-14		-6
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-7		-13		-5

Anderson made David Wells look svelte when he pitched against the Cubs last year, yet despite his nearly complete lack of dominance, apparently he impressed Chicago to some extent since they signed him to a minor league deal this weekend. While the Cubs' desperate search for lefties could result in him spending some time in the majors and he possesses decent control, Anderson's 47:29 K:BB in 104 innings between AAA Fresno(PCL) and AAA Louisville(PCL) in 2003 doesn't indicate much upside. You don't want Anderson on your fantasy team barring shocking skill development.

121.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Aaron Heilman		2	0	6.75	1.84	51	41	79	65.1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-8		-15		3		1
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-6		-12		3		8

The 18th overall pick of the 2001 draft appeared essentially ready for the majors a year ago, and while he obviously struggled in his debut, a 7.0 K/9 and 1.29 G-F both indicate solid upside. Over the first half of the season, Heilman compiled a 6 record and a 3.24 ERA on a 71:32 K:BB in 94.1 IP over 16 GS with 99 H and 5 HR at AAA Norfolk(IL). Now that New York drastically upgrade their defense and Heilman no longer needs to attempt to spot every pitch perfectly, I expect his hit, homer, and walk rates all will decrease as he begins emerging as a second quality homegrown starter for the Mets behind Jae Seo. Of course, teammate Jeremy Griffiths merits the same shot at a rotation spot, but Heilman holds an edge heading into spring training. If he wins the starting job as we expect, gambling a couple of bucks on him could yield you double-digit profit now, not to mention an excellent long-term keeper.

122.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Shawn Estes		8	0	5.73	1.74	103	83	182	152.1
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-8		-15		2		R
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	-6		-11		3		R

Dusty Baker's blind faith in Shawn Estes despite the significantly higher upside of Juan Cruz nearly cost the Cubs a playoff spot. Estes ranked as one of the worst starters in the majors all year, so I'm not surprised he can't find a job this winter. He set career-worst marks in strikeout rate, strikeout-to-walk rate, homer rate, OBA, OOBP, and OSLG. The only good news is that a relatively decent 1.80 G-F prevented him from allowing even more home runs, and after this disaster, he probably should pitch better for his next team. Of course, you absolutely shouldn't own him considering his perpetually awful WHIP. Given his lack of upside, I can't think of many worst pitchers to roster.

123.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jimmy Haynes		2	0	6.30	1.86	49	57	118	94.1
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-10		-18		-9		1
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-8		-15		-6		R

Considering Haynes missed the last two months of the season with a bulging disc in his back following four months of nearly complete ineffectiveness, he likely didn't debate long before exercising his $2.5M player option for 2004. He returns to Cincinnati for a third straight year as the Reds' nominal ace, but he even failed to demonstrate decent command in June despite a good ERA. With his strikeout and walk rates approaching the levels to which he fell a couple years ago, I see no reason to consider Haynes for your team at this time. His solid performance in 2002 qualifies as a complete fluke unless he manages to rebound in the very near future.

124.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ryan Dempster		3	0	6.54	1.76	84	70	134	115.2
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-10		-19		-8		1
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-8		-14		-4		4

Dempster posted an ERA over 6.00 since joining the Reds in a deal for Juan Encarnacion in 2002, he demonstrated little skill last year, and then a bone chip in his right elbow necessitated arthroscopic surgery. During the August surgery, doctors discovered a complete tear of his UCL, which required immediate Tommy John surgery. While Dempster may re-sign with the Reds on a minor league deal even though they released him in November, he almost certainly won't pitch in the majors in 2004. Considering his contractual status and diminishing skills since his great 2000, Dempster isn't worth drafting in any league this year since we have no idea when he'll resume pitching or if he'll regain his effectiveness at any point.

125.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Glendon Rusch		1	1	6.42	1.75	93	45	171	123.1
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-10		-20		0		1
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-8		-14		2		6

The Brewers' shoddy defense completely exposed Rusch's hittability last season as he fell from the ranks of interesting rotation filler to one of baseball's worst starters. Fortunately, his 2.35 ERA on a 16: K:BB in 23 IP with 26 H and 2 HR in 13 games out of the bullpen could launch a second career for him as a reliever, but his decent strikeout, walk, and homer rates also still suggest he could succeed as a starter on a team with good defense. Signing with Tampa Bay, Atlanta, or Florida would be a good move for Rusch, especially if one of the former teams will let him compete for a rotation job. I believe he still has a lot to offer major league teams, although he doesn't belong on fantasy rosters until he either regains his pre-2003 value or he demonstrates consistent skills, especially a low hit rate, as a reliever.

126.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dennis Tankersley		0	0	INF	INF	0	4	3	0
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-12		-23		-4		1
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-11		-21		-4		R

San Diego's signings of David Wells, Ismael Valdes, and Sterling Hitchcock leave Tankersley as no better than their 8th starter after the six likely major leaguers and Ben Howard. I know he failed to retire any of the seven batters he faces this season in his sole start, however almost any other former prospect would have earned a second look after compiling a 148:67 K:BB in 151 IP over 27 GS with 19 H and 15 HR at AAA Portland(PCL). He at least should earn a trade if he maintains his current effectiveness in a second season, but while he could be a decent option at some point this year, don't draft him in the spring unless he somehow wins a rotation job. We simply don't know where Tankersley will be pitching when he finally emerges as a quality big league starter.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with American League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Despite the nearly unbelievably poor numbers compiled by most of the pitchers at this level, a few of these youngsters still show significant promise. Ruben Quevedo, Oliver Perez, Luis Martinez, Aaron Heilman, and Dennis Tankersley all must overcome control problems, and only Perez owns an essentially guaranteed rotation slot, yet these are the only pitchers here who even look like good reserve picks. Over the long-term, Heilman, Perez, and Martinez possess significant upside, however since nearly everyone should compete to win in 2004, even these future studs aren't worth more than a minimal bid in spring drafts.