Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Starting Pitchers with DV of $-3 and $-4

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

79.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brandon Duckworth		4	0	4.94	1.53	68	44	98	93
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5		4		5
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-1		-4		6		7

His move to Houston in the Billy Wagner deal looked like the fresh start Duckworth needed until the Astros signed Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, thereby dropping Duckworth to no higher than seventh on the starting depth chart. Unfortunately, while he has nothing left to prove in the minors, he isn't even guaranteed a bullpen spot at this point, and considering his 1.03 G-F, pitching in Minute Maid probably won't help his confidence. Duckworth needs a trade to a starter-needy team with good defense. If Houston swaps Richard Hidalgo to somewhere like Los Angeles, moving Duckworth in a deal for a bat like Jacque Jones is a better idea than starting Jason Lane this season since Houston needs to win immediately with Clemens, Kent, and Biggio likely departing within the next year or two. Of course, Duckworth, despite severe skill erosion in 2003, still possesses the skills to dominate hitters and could emerge as a prominent middle reliever. He isn't worth anything more than a reserve pick at the moment, but Duckworth might earn a few bucks in Brad Lidge's vacated 7th inning role and would be a good Dollar Days' target if dealt to a team that will start him.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more National League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While I like the long-term upside of Brandon Duckworth, Chin-hui Tsao, Sergio Mitre, and Justin Wayne, the latter two should spend at least another year in the minors while the former two appear quite unlikely to contribute positively to roto teams in 2004. The only three pitchers today who should be reasonably good gambles are Kris Benson, A.J. Burnett, and Ryan Vogelsong, yet even exercise caution on these three given the injury concerns of Benson and Burnett and Vogelsong's uncertain role.