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January
13th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 D8
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Starting Pitchers with PDV from $5 to $9

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.


23.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Randy Wolf1604.231.2717778176200
PHI PhilliesDVAVRotohelpLABR/Tout
P:L    B:L4x4:9161718
2003 Age: 275x5:11181716

Setting career-highs in wins and strikeouts helped Wolf obscure a jump of over a point in ERA and a walk rate increase from 2.7 to 3.5 BB/9. Perhaps the only good news here is that he finally broke a 1.00 G-F by posting a 1.06 mark, so we can expect his homer rate to reverse the change from 1.0 to 1.2 HR/9 this year. Yet after a season in which his ERA dropped over 2 runs after the All-Star Game, we didn't envision his ERA rising by an even greater amount after the 2003 Break. Wolf's stats offer us a profundity of paradoxes, leaving us only with the knowledge that he should win 15 or more games as long as he remains healthy and he owns the skills necessary to post an ERA of 2.40 or 4.20 for the season. Plan for the latter but hope for the former if you manage to draft him in the low double digits.


50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more National League starters.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Every pitcher listed above possesses the skills to earn double-digit value, and many of them, especially Wolf, Lawrence, Miller, and Beckett, easily should reach that level. Feel free to roster any of these players in the $8-12 range, although exercise some caution in bidding on Alvarez, Hampton, Redding, and Ramirez.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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